CFB Advanced Matchup Plays: Week 3
Each week during the season I will recommend several players that are set up for success based on my research. This will consist of players who I believe will be underpriced, and will also have low ownership percentages.
College football is set to become a lot tougher this year with everyone increasing their coverage and attention to the sport. My goal is to provide you a weekly advantage on underrated plays and roster flexibility.
Hopefully you’ve been following along. If not, let’s make week three a good first impression!
Luke Falk – (QB) Washington State – DraftKings: $9,900 / FanDuel: $9,800
I had my doubts about Washington state heading into last weekend, but they came through in a big way, returning to the high places, high scoring offense we saw a year ago. The price tag is steep for any quarterback, but with the very reasonable prices of the Washington state receiving options, stacking makes Falk a nice option.
Vegas is projecting an a team offensive output of 42 points, so even in a blowout situation, I’d imagine that means 300 to 400 passing yards and three or four touchdowns for Falk.
In a night slate that severely lacks appealing over/under’s, Falk and his 30 fantasy points per game sets a nice floor in cash games, and also provided a reasonable stacking ceiling for tournaments.
Thomas Sirk – (QB) Duke – DraftKings: $6,600 / FanDuel: $6,600
This will be Duke’s first real test of the season, but with them being at home, and favored, I like them find a way to get a victory. A large part of why I think that is Thomas Sirk and his ability to be productive in many facets of the quarterback position. Through two games, he has completed 68% of his passes, averaged 77 rush yards per game and has a touchdown-to-interception ratio of five to zero.
Northwestern’s defense shut down Stanford two weeks ago, but as we see more of that Stanford offense, the less impressive it becomes. If this were an away game for Duke, I would be more worried about the potential of a grind it out type of game, but with it being in North Carolina, I expect some big plays (from both sides) to set the pace.
Beyond all that, the price is easily the most appealing part of Sirk. There’s a chance the Northwestern defense comes in and dominates, so I would stick to tournaments if you decide to play him. The upside is there to hit solidly above value, though, and it gives you the ability to pay-up at the running back position, something I highly suggest for the early slate.
Joseph Yearby – (RB) Miami – DraftKings: $8,500 / FanDuel: $6,800
Yearby, like Leonard Fournette last week, is severely underpriced on FanDuel. He’s coming off a breakout performance last week where he accumulated 243 total (146 rushing, 97 receiving) yards and two touchdowns. The 21 touches he received last week was more indicative of how Miami is going to use him this year than the eight he received in the week one blowout against Bethune Cookman.
The idea that a talented running back like Yearby is getting feature touches is exciting enough on it’s own, then you add in that they’re playing Nebraska at home, and fireworks should be going off in your brain. With the over/under set at 58, and Brad Kaaya struggling to get traction with the passing game, I expect them to lean heavily on the run game, in what is likely a close game throughout.
Yearby is a must play in almost every lineup on FanDuel, even if he’s highly owned. I like him quite a bit on DraftKings as well, but you don’t get off nearly as easy in terms of price.
Kareem Hunt – (RB) Toledo – DraftKings: $6,400 / FanDuel: N/A
A DraftKings slate only special. Hunt is finally free from his opening game suspension. The talented Toledo feature back will hopefully pick up where he left off. While his workload didn’t compare to the likes of Melvin Gordon and Tevin Coleman, His per touch efficiency was arguably better. He is one of only three players since 2000 to have a per rush attempt average over eight on over 200 carries.
Toledo failed to accrue 100 rushing yards in their first game, something they did in every game Hunt played in in 2014. At $6,400, you’re getting a bargain basement deal because of an opening game suspension. Hunt is a darkhorse to lead all running backs in fantasy scoring this weekend.
Roger Lewis – (WR) Bowling Green – DraftKings: $7,300 / FanDuel: N/A
Bowling Green plays in the highest Over/Under of the week. They’re projecting 79 points in this one. Memphis is a slight favorite, but this should be a shootout from the first snap. After being held to two catches for 49 yards in week one, Lewis exploded for 15 receptions, 200 receiving yards and two touchdowns in week two. Matt Johnson has performed very well so far against two reasonably strong teams, and Memphis is a notch below in quality, at least defensively.
If 1,093 receiving yards in his freshman season wasn’t enough, last week’s performance confirms Lewis is the go-to player in a high powered passing game. He’s really exploitable at his price with upside considered. I love him in all formats this week, and It would be very favorable to make a few lineups stacking him with Matt Johnson.
Ricky Jones – (WR) Indiana – DraftKings: $5,600 / FanDuel: $6,300
While it isn’t projected to be the shootout the Bowling Green vs Memphis game is, an over/under of 69.5 points isn’t something to scoff at. While Jones didn’t have the per catch numbers he put up the previous week, I found it promising he was still the main target in the passing game. The biggest issue was that Nate Sudfeld had two rushing touchdowns. That’s simply the ugly side of variance you have to account for when making lineups; sometimes things don’t work in your favor.
With that said, I’m willing to give Jones another go this week in both cash and tournaments. Sudfeld has been great and Jordan Howard is someone that the defenses are forced to account for on every play. He’s the number one receiving option, with a reliable quarterback, in a game that’s projected for a lot of points. Let’s not overthink this one.
Dom Williams – (WR) Washington State – DraftKings: $6,000 / FanDuel: $6,600
Between River Cracraft, Gabe Marks and Dom Williams, I see three players I want to invest in. All of them have been productive thus far, and all will remain large parts of a very high scoring offense. While all of them are reasonably priced, Williams sticks out at the cheapest option. Since I love Falk this week, stacking him with Williams is the most logical route.
I hit on most of the reasoning why with Falk, but even in a blowout, this passing game will get theirs before they head to the bench. If you’re playing in cash games, I’m not against rostering two of the three receivers I mentioned at the top. It wouldn’t be surprising if two of them go over 100 yards.