CFB Grind Down: Championship Week (Late)

by Jon Schiller (Varncass) Last Updated 2015-12-06 17:19:27

Each week, one of the best CFB DFS minds out there, Jonathan varncass Schiller, will break down the upcoming college football slate to help you narrow down the best targets.

This analysis should point you in the right direction as you set your CFB DFS lineups, but it is still up to you to decipher the information and make your own selections. Use this article to help you gain a better understanding of the matchups for the coming week and build from there.

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USC Trojans at Stanford Cardinal – O/U 58

Breakdown

USC

Elite Plays

JuJu Smith-Schuster ($6,400 FD, $6,400 DK) – We haven’t seen a great game out of Smith-Schuster lately so he is a little bit cheaper and a secondary option to Burbridge as I would liek Burbridge for just a bit more. That being said, Smith-Schuster is still an elite athlete with major upside and is Kessler’s best target in this game. With the lack of solid WRs, if you can fit him, you should try to.

Secondary Plays

Cody Kessler ($7,300 FD, $6,500 DK) – It is hard to avoid the top defenses in this slate as basically every defense is one of the top in the nation so we have to pick and choose our spots. I like Kessler as the 3rd best GPP QB today as I think the Stanford secondary can be beat and Kessler is in an offense that likes to throw and has the personnel to let him have a good game. With USC as a dog here I like the game flow for Kessler and I would expect a fairly solid game.

Ronald Jones ($5,300 FD, $4,600 DK) – Jones has big play ability and while he still splits carries a bit, he should get his 15 in this game and provide around 60-100 yards and a TD. I doubt the masses will be on him in this one against the solid Stanford rush defense, so he would definitely make a great GPP gamble in this game.

Stanford

Elite Plays

Christian McCaffrey ($8,000 FD, $8,000 DK) – If you aren’t using Pumphrey you should probably be using McCaffrey. The USC defense is one of the worst on the slate here and Stanford has one of the higher over/unders so the workhorse and leader in all purpose yards in McCaffrey should get a ton of yards as usual. If he doesn’t get his TDs vultured, 8,000 is too cheap for him as this Stanford offense is built around him.

Secondary Plays

Austin Hooper ($3,800 FD, $3,700 DK) – Stanford went back to the well last week and hit Hooper for a TD which should start another streak of scoring TDs in games. He is usually good for about 3 catches 40 yards and a TD which is where I want to be on FD for my TEs, and I would only use him or Price there. On DK it is a bit tougher to rationalize him but for a very cheap price in a slate that doesn’t have a lot of options he might actually be a great contrarian play if he can somehow grab 2 scores.

Air Force Falcons at San Diego State Aztecs – O/U 49

Breakdown

Air Force

Elite Plays

None – This is the lowest total on the board today and SDSU is one of the top defensive teams in the nation. Air Force and the triple option have a few things to stop and while they have started throwing the ball a little more, running it is still what needs to be stopped and SDSU is great at stopping the run.

Secondary Plays

Karson Roberts ($7,900 FD, $5,700 DK) – I wouldn’t use Roberts on FD on a one QB site but I do think he is in play on DraftKings. Roberts has really got it together in the pass game lately and he is throwing 15 times per game as Air Force tries to end the season on a high note against SDSU. He is likely going to have to pass again this week and will get his 15 pass attempts and 15 rush attempts. He has crossed 20 fantasy points in each of the last three and brings a bit of upside as well.

Timothy McVey ($8,600 FD, $4,800 DK) – I am definitely not using McVey on FD, but I would definitely consider him on DK. He has emerged in the passing game in the last few weeks and exploded with 5 catches for 3 TDs last week. He also had a season high in carries with 12 and had enough touches of the ball to make a huge impact for this price point. I cannot imagine he would get less touches this week after how good he was last week and I think his extra efforts will cut into Owens making him no longer a play.

SDSU

Elite Plays

Donnell Pumphrey ($9,100 FD, $8,100 DK) – Pumphrey is a lock and load type of guy where you load him up and let him go to work with 25 carries 200 yards and 2 TDs. He is the top RB play on the slate and despite Air Force’s solid defense, Pumphrey should again come close to those numbers he has approached all season long. The offense is build around getting Pumphrey the ball, so we have a huge floor here.

Secondary Plays

Chase Price ($6,300 FD, $4,900 DK) – Price is one of the better backups in the country and is fairly cheap here for a guy who is going to get 15 carries and a few catches out of the backfield. Price has really inserted himself in this role and SDSU has to really enjoy having him along as it keeps Pumphrey fresh and allows him to come in to break some big runs. The SDSU offense only runs the ball and none of the WRs are in play at all.

North Carolina Tar Heels at Clemson Tigers – O/U 67

Breakdown

UNC

Elite Plays

Marquise Williams ($8,600 FD, $8,300 DK) – Williams is the secondary play to Watson in this game and probably the lower ownership especially because if you are using Watson, you are pairing him with a couple of his dirt cheap receivers and will have enough salary. Williams is at times not the greatest QB but he has rush upside and TD upside in the highest scoring game. If UNC can pull this game off and they are not that big of dogs, he should be the top scoring QB.

Elijah Hood ($8,400 FD, $6,900 DK) – Hood has been amazing lately and will get his 20 carries in this game as well. The Clemson defense has been great but this game has the highest over/under of the day and Hood is going to get his work. He continues scoring 2 TDs per game in the last 5 games and I would guess he would do that again today with UNC’s 30 point over/under in this game.

Secondary Plays

Ryan Switzer/Mack Hollins/Quinshad Davis – If you’re playing on DraftKings I might lean Switzer because of the 1 PPR and FanDuel might lean Hollins for the long TD bonus. Davis is great on both sites because of the red zone targets, but basically all three of these guys are a roulette wheel to whomever Marquise wants to get the ball two. Both teams with the major team totals in this game have WRs who are hard to peg which makes the WR pool extremely critical to get right on this short slate.

Clemson

Elite Plays

Deshaun Watson ($10,900 FD, $8,600 DK) – On a 2 QB site like DK at this price I do not know how you fade Watson. He is the clear top play on this slate as the highest scoring team and probably has about a 60% shot at ending this day as the highest scoring QB. Clemson has the best matchup here and as a QB who has rarely disappointed this year he is the clear top play on the board. It really isn’t hard to get him on FD either considering some of his better WRs are min priced as well.

*Wayne Gallman ($6,200 FD, $6,200 DK) – Gallman is a great play here for a cheap price on both sites for the highest scoring team on the board. He continues to post up his 20 carries for 100 yards and a touchdown and should get about that today. He makes one of the safer cash game plays on the board especially if you aren’t stacking Watson and the receivers. In fact, if you do not have any other Clemson exposure I would say he is close to a must play if you aren’t making a conscious effort to fade all Clemson.

Deon Cain ($5,200 FD, $4,900 DK) – Cain seems to be the #1 target for Watson at this time, so he gets the bump to the elite plays area. He continues to catch a score almost every game and is the most consistent guy making him the target for cash games. I like Scott and Peake more for upside and GPPs, but Cain should grab 5 for 50 and a TD at minimum this week.

Secondary Plays

Artavis Scott ($4,500 FD, $5,500 DK) – I like Scott on FD at min price and I like him on DK at 5,500 as well because of full PPR. He hasn’t done well lately, but he is still the most experienced WR in this offense and is the one who Watson trusts when he needs big downs. I think we can see a big game coming in catches from him, it is just if he breaks a long one regarding the yards.

Charone Peake ($4,500 FD, $4,000 DK) – Peake is the cheapest guy but the guy in my opinion with the biggest upside. He also has the biggest downside if Watson doesn’t look his way a lot, but in a game that could turn into a shootout, we could get some big plays in here. I will have a lot of Peake today due to the cheap price and will be stacking him with Watson in a good number of areas.

Michigan State Spartans at Iowa Hawkeyes – O/U 51

Breakdown

MSU

Elite Plays

Aaron Burbridge ($6,500 FD, $6,500 DK) – Burbridge is the highest priced WR on the slate but he is the best play on the slate at WR. The slate is extremely lacking in WR options and other than using all of the cheap Clemson WRs or JuJu, I see no one else who can catch you 8 balls for 150 and a TD. Burbridge is the top target for Cook and with all of these games with good teams against good teams, you want to find good players in decent spots and the Spartans are going to throw a good number of times against Iowa.

Secondary Plays

Connor Cook ($7,700 FD, $6,300 DK) – I do not see a lot of people touting Cook so I think for low ownership this week he could be one of the best plays on the board. If you aren’t going with Williams or Watson, the QBs are really all the same but with MSU at time struggling to establish the run, they turn to the pass as the security blanket and Cook has been accurate in the biggest games of the year. He looked fine against Penn State and in a gmae where he will need to throw, I could see 350 and 3 TDs here.

Gerald Holmes ($5,500 FD, $4,500 DK) – After a long season of rotating running backs, Holmes has the lead back for MSU with LJ Scott in reserve. Holmes has scored in 4 straight and while he does not have a ton of upside, he still has a decent yards per carry despite only carrying the ball 15 times per game. Holmes is an interesting punt play that will be low owned.

Iowa

Elite Plays

Jordan Canzeri ($7,500 FD, $5,900 DK) – Canzeri is back to the lead back in this offense and while Wadley and Daniels will still get some, Canzeri is a guy who can handle a big workload and provide huge numbers while at it. Michigan State’s run defense is jekyll and hyde this year so I am not all in on Canzeri as the Iowa running game could be stopped but generally they have been great the entire year and should be again today.

Secondary Plays

C.J. Beathard ($5,800 FD, $5,300 DK) – If you are punting QB, Beathard is your guy. At times the MSU secondary has been weak, and Chris Godwin had a monster game last week against these same guys. Beathard is too cheap on all sites considering how many points Iowa is expected to score and if MSU commits to stopping the run, Beathard should come close to value allowing you to stack the rest of your roster.

Appalacian State Mountaineers at South Alabama Jaguars – O/U 60

Breakdown

Appalacian State

Elite Plays

Jalin Moore $5,800 – Moore has been fantastic in the last two games and while he is in no more than a timeshare with Marcus Cox, I still think he is going to get his 15-20 carries in this game and provide massive upside. Appalacian State is the biggest favorite on this board and even playing away from home they should dominate South Alabama and feature the running game as they have been lately. Moore is an explosive back with big upside for a cheap price.

Secondary Plays

Marcus Cox $7,800 – Cox still has the seniority in this backfield and will still get carries so he is still in play but he has been less than stellar lately and is not scoring the ridiculous amounts of TDs he was scoring in the early part of the season. I favor Moore and I am going to ignore Taylor Lamb who is a bit overpriced for how little that App State has been throwing the ball lately. Lamb has hardly any running upside and is going to need to throw a few TDs in this game which used to be a guarantee but not lately.

South Alabama

Elite Plays

None – South Alabama is a pretty big dog in this game which will force them to pass and they do not have a particularly good pass offense. I am not looking towards this game for any big players as Clements is coming off an injury and none of his receivers are reliable. Xavier Johnson is an interesting RB but his carries have been lowered in the last couple of weeks and his price is too high.

Secondary Plays

Gerald Everett $3,700 – Everett is a fairly solid TE who is the main pass catcher in this offense but has really struggled in the last couple of weeks as the SALA offense has struggled with him. He is one of the better TE plays on the slate with Price and Hooper and is really the only guy I would look to in this offense for fantasy today.

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