CFB Grind Down - Saturday, September 5th - Page 3

by Andy Smith (a25smith) Last Updated 2015-09-05 13:12:21

Florida Atlantic Owls at Tulsa Golden Hurricane – O/U 64

Breakdown

This is one of the games to target on Saturday’s slate as it checks in with a total of 64 with Tulsa the slight favorite. Tulsa has a new coach in Phillip Montgomery, who was OC at Baylor last year. Baylor led the nation in plays per game last year at 90 per game so Tulsa’s getting a tempo boost to an already solid offense. For FAU, I really like their QB, Jaquez Johnson, but not much else. Jenson Stoshak could be interesting at WR, and I’ll avoid their RBs as they were RBBC last year (Greg Howell is listed as the starter if you’re wondering).

Tulsa

Elite Options

Keevan Lucas (FD: $9,800, DK: $7,800) – He’ll be harder to fit on FD, but he could certainly be worth it, and on DK, I’m locking and loading him. He’s coming off of a big sophomore season (101/1219/11) and should be among the nation’s leading wide receivers in his new offense. He’s the top WR on the board in this slate.

Dane Evans (FD: $8,900, DK: $6,700) – Tulsa is returning 10 starters on offense so Evans will have all the tools as well as the offensive system to put up a big season. His accuracy and interceptions were concerning last year, but he threw for over 3,000 yards and should see that number climb running the Baylor system. He has a stud wide receiver in Keevan Lucas, and Keyarris Garrett is a big target on the outside. FAU graduated three starters from their secondary and ranked 74th last year so this is a unit that I think can be picked on.

Secondary Options

Keyarris Garrett (FD: $6,800, DK: $5,200) – Garrett is overshadowed by Lucas but he battled through injuries and produced a solid year last season, and in 2012 he lead the team in receiving before he tore his ACL early in 2013. Looking at the recent Baylor offenses, there has been enough for two wide receivers to produce big numbers as they’ve had two receivers top 800 receiving yards in each of the past four seasons. Lucas is clearly the number one here, but I’m expecting a boost for Garrett as well.

D’Angelo Brewer (FD: $4,500, DK: $3,000) – Tulsa was not an effective ground team last year and Zach Langer led them with 801 yards and 4 TDs. Based on the new depth chart, it appears that Brewer has taken over the starting role, but that Langer could be a factor in the red zone. Normally that’s scary, but Brewer is still very interesting to me for a few reasons. The first is that he minimum price on both so even if he does get a TD vultured he could still pay this price off with ease. On a site like DK with 2 flex options, he opens up so much and I think he is cash game and GPP viable, whereas on FD where the RB spots are more valuable I’d lean more GPP only. Brewer didn’t get much of an opportunity last season so this is all projections and trusting the depth chart, and sometimes what these coaches do on Saturday just doesn’t match the depth chart. That being said I like the risk because while Baylor is often thought of as a pass heavy system, it’s actually a very good running system as well. The Baylor system will run the ball often and with their wide splits they really stress the defense and create nice lanes for RBs. Overall I don’t have a great feel for what the volume for each RB will look like, but the minimum price on Brewer’s mitigates a great deal of that risk, especially on DK so I’d consider him a great value option there.

FAU

Elite Options

Jaquez Johnson (FD: $8,200, DK: $6,200) – Considering his price tag and matchup, he’s one of my go to options at QB on this slate. He’s a solid dual-threat option at QB as he averaged double digit carries and was second on FAU in rushing with 513 yards, including a team-leading 7 TDs. As is seemingly the case with most everyone, he’s reported to be great physical shape and he’s healthy after being banged up last season. Given his size at over 220 pounds, I’d expect him to continue to be a rushing force in the red zone, and Tulsa returns only one starter in the secondary from a team that was 112th in the nation against the pass. He took advantage of their weak secondary last season as he put up a big outing against with 318 passing yards and had four total TDs.

Secondary Options

Jenson Stoshak (FD: $6,000, DK: $4,400) – Stoshak (37/508/2) is expected to step into the lead role following the graduation of Johnson’s favorite target, Lucky Whitehead. Johnson is a dual threat that can get some yards with his feet so he’s not a guy that you have to handcuff with a WR, but if you are looking to do so, Stoshak looks to be the top option.

Penn State Nittany Lions at Temple Owls – O/U 38

Breakdown

With this game carrying a total of only 44, this is a game that I’d largely just avoid. Both offenses were nothing to write home about last year, and Penn State was ranked in the top 10 in both rush and pass defense. Temple was solid in its own right as they were 68th in rush defense and 31st in passing defense. Both units are once again expected to be salty as PSU brings back its run-stuffing nose tackle and return three of four starters in the secondary. Meanwhile, Temple returns 9 on starters on defense, with many of those landing on the pre-season all-conference lists.

Temple

Elite Options

NONE

Secondary Options

P. J. Walker (FD: $6,300, DK: $4,700) – P. J. Walker is very cheap on both sites and if he’s this cheap down the road, he could be worth a look in certain situations as he’s flashed some solid dual-threat ability at times during his career. However, this is not the spot I’m looking to play him as I think this PSU defense is just too strong.

Penn State

Elite Options

None

Secondary Options

Christian Hackenberg (FD: $6,000, DK: $5,600) – Pro scouts still love the guy as he still seems to pop up on mock drafts as a first-round draft pick, but DFSers who rostered him last year would scoff at that prediction. In terms of fantasy production, he was by and large horrific to close last year as he scored double figure DK points in just one of his final ten games. Part of that is certainly on him, but part of was also due to a poor offensive line. The offensive line should be more experienced and brought in a JUCO left tackle and is expected to improve. He also does have a talented wide receiver in DaeSean Hamilton and Hackenberg himself is still very talented. I’ll personally be staying away due to the solid Temple defense and last year’s struggles, but he is very cheap so I could understand him as a cheap QB2 in a GPP, but I’d just pay the extra $600 for Jaquez.

Akeel Lynch (FD: $7,500, DK: $4,600) – Lynch only started a few games last year but did produce 703 yards and four touchdowns as he led the team with 147 rushing attempts. He should be in line for a bigger workload as Bill Belton and Zach Zwinak both depart, and some pre-season magazines like him for a breakout year. He falls into a similar category as the rest of the PSU offense in that I don’t hate him, but I do think there will be better spots to deploy him.

DeaSean Hamilton (FD: $6,200, DK: $4,700) – If you’re taking the plunge on Hackenberg and expecting a solid outing from him then you should just handcuff him with Hamilton as Hackenberg’s success should mean a good game for Hamilton. However, as mentioned I’m just not overly enthused about this game. It looks like second leading WR Geno Lewis was passed by Chris Godwin on the depth chart, who apparently has had a strong camp.

Mike Gesiki (FD: $2,300, DK: $3,000) – This would be a FD only play at TE as he’s listed as the top TE, and PSU is a team that will use their TE effectively at times. Hackenberg looked to get his TE Kyle Carter involved at times during Hackenberg’s impressive freshman year, and Gesiki looks to have passed Carter up on the depth chart.

Sam Houston State Bearkats at Texas Tech Red Raiders –

Breakdown

Sam Houston State is a very good FCS program that often goes very deep into the playoffs so they could be put up a few points here. However, they’re not going to slow down the Texas Tech attack and hopefully they can score just enough points to keep the starting Texas Tech offense around for three quarters.

Texas Tech

Elite Options

NONE

Secondary Options

Patrick Mahomes (DK: $8,400) or Davis Webb (DK: $8,700) – The big question is whether Kliff Kingsbury will name a starter prior to kickoff. If he does then I’d elevate whoever gets the named the starter to elite option status on DK, especially if it’s Mahomes. These are solid price points for whoever is the starter and the Tech offense is a great system for QB fantasy production. Obviously, if no starter is named, this is a stay away for cash games. However, for a GPP like that $3 tournament, I’d still take a shot here because that should keep ownership down on what is a player in a great system (if you can guess the right one). I think Mahomes is going to be the guy so that’s the guy I’d plug into a tournament if there is no news.

Deandre Washington (DK: $4,500) – Washington’s price tag is interesting as he ran for over 1,000 last season and also had 30 receptions. However, he did have only 2 rushing TDs and he was very volatile due to inconsistent volume. He has nice upside at this price point though if the volume is there and makes for a solid option due to his activity in the passing game as well.

Jakeem Grant (DK: $7,900) & Devin Lauderdale (DK: $5,200) – Grant (67/938/7) was Tech’s leading wide receiver last year, and Lauderdale (31/589/7) was their third leading wide receiver. Given that Grant is priced higher than Keevan Lucas and with a cheaper option like Marks on the table, I just don’t see how you justify his price in cash games, but he’s a good tournament pivot. Lauderdale comes a little cheaper and this Tech passing game should put up big numbers.

Louisville Cardinals at Auburn Tigers – O/U 58

Breakdown

Louisville returns only four starters defensively but does add in Devonte Fields, who is a former B12 player of the year, as well as two Georgia transfers in the secondary. Bobby Petrino is going all Bobby Petrino on us and not listing a starter QB so that’s a situation to avoid for now. The starters at the skill positions that aren’t up in the air are Brandon Radcliff, James Quick, Ja’Quay Savage and Jamari Staples. As far as Auburn goes they were a mess defensively last year but brought in one of the best defensive coaches in the game in Will Muschamp, and I’m expecting some improvement on that side of the ball. The offense graduates a lot of production, but Gus Malzahn’s system is one of the best in the game, and there’s top talent ready to step in.

Louisville

Elite Plays

Brandon Radcliff (FD: $7,100, DK: $5,300) – Louisville only returns 2 offensive linemen and AU is getting one of their best defensive linemen back in Carl Lawson and has an SEC contender at defensive tackle in Montravious Adams so I’m tempering my expectations from a yardage standpoint. However, he is no longer sharing carries with Michael Dyer and Dominque Brown and should be able to build on his 751 rushing yards and 12 TDs from last season. When he had the opportunity last season he was rock solid as he topped 20 DK points in five of the six games that he registered at least 15 carries. He’s going to be their go-to option in the red zone and with Louisville predicted to top 21 points here, I think he can snag two of those TDs. I’m thinking something along the lines of 90-100 yards and hopefully two TDs.

Secondary Options

James Quick (FD: $6,000, DK: $4,400) – Quick (36/566/3) is by far the leading returning WR for the Cardinals, and he’d draw more consideration from me on DK if I knew who the Louisville QB was. However, given the uncertainty as to who they will be trotting out at QB it’s tough to load up on Louisville WR. If Reggie Bonnafon trots out at as the starter, I’d be worried if I ran with some Louisville WRs as he’s the dual threat guy and his passing left much to be desired last season. The other receiving option to possibly consider would be Ja’Quay Savage, who is a former 4-star recruit and transfer from A&M. He has some nice skills, but he was very raw outside of running a “go” when he was at A&M so I’m taking a wait and see approach with him.

Auburn

Elite Options

Roc Thomas (FD: $6,800, DK: $4,300) – It was thought that Auburn would be RBBC to start the year, but in their latest depth chart he was all alone at the top. This still could feature some RBBC as Malzhan was quoted “He’ll be the first one to go out there, but those other two guys will play. We’d like to see them in game situations now.” In years past, Malzahn has picked a guy and rolled with him, and I like that Roc get the first crack. Those other guys will play, but if Roc comes out and runs well, I think he’ll get the majority of the carries, and a RB who gets the majority of the carries in an Auburn offense is fantasy gold. I’m not there yet for cash games due to the lingering uncertainty, but if the carries are there he’ll blow this salary away, especially on DK, so I’m getting GPP exposure to him at a minimum.

D’Haquille Williams (FD: $7,500, DK: $5,800)- Louisville is losing their entire secondary, and although they’re adding in two Georgia transfers, this is a unit I’ll target. Auburn’s offense will stress safeties as they play fast and will take deep shots when they catch those safeties inching into the box to stop their potent running game. This is an entirely new unit that hasn’t started together in game action so I could see them dropping a coverage or two. Williams (45/730/5) ran into a lot of offseason problems so he’s trying to work his way back up the depth chart. He may not trot out there on the first play, but my guess is he plays a lot and I love his potential this season as he’s playing with a much better passing QB this year than he did last year. The risk here is those offseason problems and whether Malzahn puts his foot down, but my GUESS is he doesn’t as he’s already been practicing off and on with the first team again.

Jeremy Johnson (FD: $9,100, DK: $7,000) – He’s a big kid at 6’5 and 240 pounds so he’ll inevitably get the comparisons to Cam Newton, however, they’re two very different players. I’m really curious how Auburn’s offense looks as he’s not nearly the run threat that Newton or Nick Marshall was, but he is very good passer. Last year, he played the first half against Arkansas for a suspended Nick Marshall, and attempted 16 passes (and threw for 243 yards and 2 TDs) but didn’t register a single rushing attempt. I do think he’ll be asked to be a factor in the run game due to the offense he’s in, but I don’t believe it will nearly be to the same effect as his predecessors so don’t expect those type of rushing numbers from him. He’s a guy I find myself getting exposure to as a QB2 on DK and handcuffing with Williams for GPPs, as I do like this AU passing game more than in years past.

Secondary Options

Ricardo Louis (FD: $5,300, DK: $4,300) – Louis could be a boom or bust option as a WR3 or at flex, but I would not use him in cash games as you’re depending on him breaking a big play. He has a ton of speed and has the ability to break some big plays, but the consistency has not been there. Auburn will get him the ball on jet sweeps and he’s expected to play a bigger role in the receiving game as he steps into the position previously held by Sammie Coates.

UTEP Miners at Arkansas Razorbacks – O/U 49

Breakdown

Like several other games on this slate, this one boils down how quickly the blowout occurs and your risk tolerance. Arkansas is installed as 33 point with a team total over 40, while UTEP’s sits under 10. There’s not a whole lot to like for UTEP offensively this year, but their RB, Aaron Jones can really go. He’s a guy to look down the road, but with a tough Arkansas run defense and a low total I would not pay his tag.

UTEP

Elite Options

NONE

Secondary Options

NONE

Arkansas

Elite Options

Hunter Henry (FD: $2,800, DK:$3,600) – Given the savings you get on him, he’s my favorite TE option on FD. He was the Hogs’ second-leading receiver last year as he put up 37 receptions for 513 yards and two TDs. His fellow talented TE, AJ Derby, graduated so I’m expecting a bigger season from Henry. The Arkansas run game creates lots of one on one opportunities for him with linebackers and strong safeties and those are mismatches he wins on a regular basis. At wide receiver, Keon Hatcher 43/558/6 led the Razorbacks in receiving last year, but given the run-heavy nature of the offense, I’m not really looking to use a WR slot on him, especially in a blowout, which means I’ll pass on QB Brandon Allen as well.

Secondary Options

Alex Collins (FD: $9,400, DK: $9,200) – When the injury to Jonathan Williams broke, my first thought was that I felt terrible for Williams. My second thought was that as an A&M fan, I’m not sure I want to see a full dose of Alex Collins. I think he’s that good and now that he’s not sharing the carries with Williams, he should be in for a monster year. He ran for 1,100 yards and 12 TDs while splitting carries with Williams (Williams had 211 while Collins had 204) so 1,500+ yards seems easily within reach. In terms of weight, Arkansas’ “smallest” offensive lineman is 6’10 307 pounder, Dan Skipper – they’re going to maul a ton of defensive lines this year, and UTEP stands no chance here. The problem is that means he likely doesn’t top 15 carries here, which makes him a very risky cash game play at his price. Last year, Collins did go for 131 yards and 3 TDs on 13 carries in a blowout 73-7 win over Nicholls State so he can certainly do damage on just 13-15 carries. However, that’s a risk that I’d only take in tournaments.

I was hoping Arkansas would have a clear number two RB, but that doesn’t appear to be the case as it could be either Kody Walker or Rawleigh Williams. Bielema said in his presser that Walker would come in first, but that Williams has been a surprise and will get in the mix as well. Bielema has typically had a strong number two RB option, but it doesn’t like the battle between Walker and Williams has been quite settled so it’s a risky play in my book but does have upside if one of them garners the majority of the second string carries.

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