CFB Grind Down: Thursday, September 3rd

by Andy Smith (a25smith) Last Updated 2015-09-07 23:16:30

Each week, one of the best CFB DFS minds out there, Andy “a25smith” Smith, will break down the upcoming college football slate to help you narrow down the best targets.

This analysis should point you in the right direction as you set your CFB DFS lineups, but it is still up to you to decipher the information and make your own selections. Use this article to help you gain a better understanding of the matchups for the coming week and build from there.

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Florida International Golden Panthers at UCF Knights – O/U 46.5

Breakdown

With FIU’s game total hovering around 14 points, they’re a team that I think you can basically cross off your list, with the exception of their TE Jonnu Smith. As far as UCF goes, there is a lot of uncertainty here as well, and I’ll largely be staying away except for a tournament bullet here or there.

UCF

Elite Options

NONE

Secondary Options

Justin Holman (FD: $7,700, DK: $6,500) – UCF coach George O’Leary is really talking up his junior QB. He’s coming off a solid season last year that saw him throw for 23 TDs and almost 3,000 yards. He wasn’t very productive in the run game but he did average almost nine rush attempts per game as well. He’s at an awkward price point on FD, as most will either pay up for one of the top end options or drop down to a value QB, which should leave him low owned. Three’s definitely some talent here, but the big concern is that he lost his top four wide receivers from last season. FIU was solid against the pass last year and return their best corner, so there are other guys I’d prefer to target at QB, but I don’t hate him as a QB2 on DK.

Jordan Akins (FD: $6,000, DK: $4,000) & Tre’Quan Smith (FD: $6,300, DK: $3,500) – As mentioned, UCF lost four wide receivers who accounted for over 2,500 of their 3,000 passing yards. That means that there are a lot of question marks with this unit, but also some profit potential if we can nail down who will step up in their place. With the UCF head coach talking up his QB, I’m not expecting UCF to take a ground and pound approach, despite the loss of all those WRs. Akins (12/135) is the leading returning WR for the Knights and isn’t the typical sophomore, as he played professional baseball prior to returning to college. He’s 23 years old and is 6’3 and 237 pounds, so the physical traits are there. Smith redshirted last season but supposedly had a big spring camp as Holman’s favorite target. Based on what I read, he’s a guy who can certainly challenge to be their leading WR. The third guy here to keep an eye on is true freshman Tristan Payton. He was a coup for UCF as he was rated a four-star coming out of high school and had previously been committed to both USC and Florida, so he has power six conference talent. I’d side with Akins and Smith at this point, as they’ve had a more time to form a connection with Holman, but he’s definitely one to watch as the season progresses.

William Stanback (FD:$7,600, DK:$6,600) – Stanback looks like he’s held off Dontravious Wilson and will be UCF’s primary option at RB. He’s coming off of a fairly unproductive and injury plagued season, which should limit his ownership. There were times last year that UCF rode him pretty hard and he did have 12 TDs, including five multi-TD games. However, his volume was unpredictable and FIU is returning six of their front seven from an average rush defense, so this is basically a neutral matchup. I wouldn’t touch him in cash games as there are other RBs I like better in his price range, but he could surprise for GPPs.

FIU

Elite Options

Jonnu Smith (FD: $4,000, DK: $4,200) – Jonnu is the rare collegiate TE that is far and away his team’s top option, as he led the team in receiving last season (61/710/8). If you can swing his price on FD, he’s clearly the top option at TE simply due to his volume and involvement in the offense. DK has eliminated the TE position, so he’s not a necessity there, as FIU is not a good offense, and UCF was solid defensively last season (although they did graduate the majority of their secondary).

Secondary Options

NONE

North Carolina Tar Heels at South Carolina Gamecocks – O/U 64

Breakdown

This game is projected to be one of the two highest scoring games on the slate, as it features two defenses that really struggled last season, especially against the run. Those struggles led to new defensive coordinators for each school and there is hope for improvement. However, I expect the improvement to be more gradual, and am not expecting a huge leap, so I’ll still target them until proven otherwise. There should be some fantasy goodness to go around, but the issue will be nailing down where it comes from. Outside of Marquise Williams, UNC really spread things around last year at the skill positions. The same is true for the Gamecocks as outside of Pharoh Cooper, the Gamecocks feature a lot of new faces offensively and are breaking in a new QB.

UNC

Elite Options

Marquise Williams (FD: $10,100, DK: $9,700) – Taking a quick glance around the industry, it looks like Marquise Williams could be only the third or fourth highest owned QB on this slate. That puts him as an elite GPP play in my book as we could easily look back at that ownership and think that was a big mistake. Last year, he threw for over 3,000 yards and also lead UNC in rushing with 788 rushing yards as he piled up 35 total TDs. He put up some monster games last season and certainly has GPP winning upside. The Gamecocks took a dramatic fall defensively last year as they were gashed on the ground for 214 YPG and 5.4 YPC and also were sub-par against the pass. The big question with him is whether his volume in the run game takes a hit as there was talk in the offseason that the coaches want to lessen his load. However, that doesn’t mean they’ll necessarily lessen his load in the opener as this is a big game for the Heels. They return their entire OL intact and I’d expect him to continue to be a factor in the running game inside the red zone. With their total above 30, Marquise could be in line for at least three total TDs, if not more.

Secondary Options

UNC Wide Receivers – One of Quinshad Davis (41/470/6), Ryan Switzer (61/757/4), Mack Hollins (35/613/8) or even Bug Howard (42/455/2) likely has a solid game here, but the issue is that it you’re playing a guessing game trying to nail down which one. Switzer is the one I’m most likely to use as he was the most consistent last season and has a solid price point around the industry. He’s a factor in the punt return game (five punt return TDs his freshman year) and he’s expected to have a breakout year by some UNC faithful. Davis could be a factor in the red-zone and has flashed big upside at times, but has also proven to be very inconsistent.

Elijah Hood (FD: $4,900, DK: $3,600) – I like him as a cheap GPP option, and am on the fence as to his cash game playability. I’m leaning towards GPP only because I just don’t trust Larry Fedora or Hood’s volume yet. As noted above, the Gamecocks rush defense was very porous last season and Hood is a talented kid and former high level recruit. He’s expected by some to have a breakout sophomore year and the talk out of UNC camp is that they want to get to the ball to their RBs more. He’s listed all alone at the top of the depth chart so there looks to be upside at his price point. However, the issue is that T. J. Logan as well as Romar Morris are lurking here as the UNC backfield is deep, and there’s no telling how the workload will be divided. It took UNC head coach Larry Fedora a few games last year to even commit to a talent like Marquise Williams last season, so it’s tough to trust that he can fully commit to a RB in a crowded backfield.

South Carolina

Elite Options

Pharoh Cooper (FD: $9,100, DK: $8,100) – The primary issue with Cooper actually has nothing to do with him, as he’s coming off of a monster season with over 1,100 receiving yards, 200 rushing yards and 11 total TDs. He’s a special talent, and Spurrier even used him as a wildcat QB at times last season. If you have the cap room, he’s an elite option against what has been one of the worst defenses in the country over the past few seasons. He’ll also be highly motivated for this one as he’s a North Carolina native, and UNC was apparently his dream school before they botched his recruitment. The issues lie with questions surrounding his inexperienced QB play as well as his high price point.

Secondary Options

Connor Mitch (FD: $7,300, DK: $6,900) – I really don’t love his price point on any of the major sites, but he is cheap at some other sites around the industry, and any QB facing UNC last season deserved a look. UNC was 103rd in passing yards allowed per game and 119th in scoring defense, allowing almost 40 PPG. In short they were one of the top teams in the nation to pick on last year. Mitch is an unknown as he’s only attempted six career passes, but he was highly recruited and has a big arm. There is some GPP upside due to UNC’s poor defense, as well Cooper’s ability to turn a short pass into a long TD. However, I have concerns about his nerves in his first start on a big stage, and if the Gamecocks have success on the ground, which they probably will, you could see them ease Mitch in by putting more on the RBs plate.

Brandon Wilds (FD: $7,700, DK: $7,500) & David Williams (FD:$5,000, DK:$4,900) – This is a somewhat similar situation to the UNC running backs, as you have a RBBC facing a team that really struggled defending the run last season. UNC was am absolute sieve against the run last season, which really makes me want to target the Gamecocks running game. The problem lies in that both Wilds and William are expected to see carries and this may even be more of a 1A and 1B situation. I’d expect Wilds to lead the team in carries as he is sitting atop the depth chart, but Williams comes at the much cheaper price point. This is a great matchup, but until we get a look at what their distribution looks like, they’re both GPP only plays for me.

Deebo Samuel (FD:$6,000, DK:$4,600) – I’m unlikely to have any exposure to him, but he’s expected to be the starting WR opposite of Cooper. He’s a redshirt freshman with no experience, but Spurrier seems to like him, and if teams double team Cooper then he should see plenty of man to man coverage.

Duke Blue Devils at Tulane Green Wave – O/U 47

Breakdown

This is a game that doesn’t look very appetizing from a fantasy perspective as it carries a low 47 total. With a team total of just over 18 points, I’d mostly just cross Tulane off your list, as they’re sounding like a RBBC and their QB play was poor last year. However, Duke does have a few intriguing options, most notably their new QB, Thomas Sirk.

Tulane

Elite Options

NONE

Secondary Options

NONE

Duke

NONE

Elite Options

Secondary Options

Thomas Sirk (FD:$5,100, DK: $6,000) – Based on the tough pricing on FD, he could arguably be considered an elite play there and is very much in play as a cheap QB2 on DK. I’ll hold off on him as an elite play as this is first year as the starting QB. I still have strong hesitancy about his effectiveness in the passing game, but at his price point I’m mainly targeting him for his running ability, especially in the red-zone. Duke used him often inside the 10 yard line last year and he produced 8 rushing TDs in limited action. This year he’ll be the full time QB, and Tulane is certainly not a defense to fear. I’m not expecting huge passing numbers out of him but I am expecting him to continue to be force running the ball as his 6’4, 220 pound frame is a weapon around the goal line.

Shaquille Powell (FD: $6,900, DK: $4,700) – Powell looks like he has the potential to be a solid value play in Week 1 as he’s currently the only healthy RB. If Duke gets some of those other RBs back prior to kick, my enthusiasm for Powell takes a big hit. However, if they are out then he’s presents solid volume at a cheap price point. This game doesn’t carry a huge total and Duke isn’t a team that I want a ton of exposure to, so I’d try to avoid having him and Sirk on the same team. I’d also be sure to check in on the availability of the other Duke RBs prior to kickoff.

Oklahoma State Cowboys at Central Michigan Chippewas – O/U 56

Breakdown

There’s no particular play that I think is a must play, but I’m liking the OSU offense in this one, and think in general they’re a team that should be much improved this season. This game is on the road and CMU is expected to keep it just close enough, so that the OSU starters should see all four quarters of action. There’s not a guy I feel confident enough to go all in on, but I’ll have exposure to their offense sprinkled throughout my lineups. As far as CMU goes, I’m not overly enthused and will most pass, except for maybe a GPP flex option play.

Oklahoma State

Elite Plays

NONE

Secondary Plays

Chris Carson (FD: $7,900, DK: $6,200) – Carson was a recruiting coup for the Cowboys, as they were able to pull the highly recruited junior college running back away from his commitment to Georgia. He’s already been named the starting RB and head coach Mike Gundy has compared him to former OSU running back Keith Toston, who had 1,200 rushing yards his senior season. I like the OSU offense to have a solid bounce back season and they have the second highest team total on the board at 40 points. Central Michigan was solid against the run last year, but return only five starters, and this is a solid jump up in competition. I like him quite a bit and think he presents some solid upside, but don’t have him as an elite play as I want to see what type of volume he gets first.

Brandon Shephard (FD: $7,300, DK: $6,000) – Shephard (39/737/5) is the leading returning OSU WR and showed a strong connection with Mason Rudolph down the stretch last season. In Rudolph’s three starts he averaged just over 100 receiving yards per game and a TD. Central Michigan struggled in the secondary last season and return only two starters, so this is a solid matchup. With Mason Rudolph now a sophomore and gaining some experience, I’m expecting a solid season out of his top target. James Washington should be the second leading WR and did have two TDs in Rudolph’s three starts, but he’s a deep GPP play only for me.

Mason Rudolph (FD: $9,000, DK: $8,100) – I like for Rudolph to have a solid sophomore season as he surprisingly had his red-shirt burned for the final three games of last season and showed promise. What I don’t like is his price tag, as it is really juiced on both sites. He’s not a threat in the run game and while he sees solid passing volume, he’s not in the same category as the Air Raid offenses that sling it all over the field. Based on that, it’s tough to pay his tag at either FD or DK.

CMU

Elite Options

NONE

Secondary Options

Cooper Rush (FD: $6,500, DK: $5,200) – Rush was solid last season with 3,100 passing yards and 27 TDs. I could see taking a flier on him as cheap QB2 as CMU should be trailing and OSU did struggle in the secondary last season. He did have a monster bowl game, but that came against a poor Western Kentucky defense, and he didn’t top 200 passing yards in any of their three games against teams from power six conferences last year (Kansas, Purdue, and Syracuse). My final concern is that this is a new coaching staff for CMU, so there’s some uncertainty as to what this offense will look like. I’ll likely have very low exposure to him as CMU has one of the lower totals on the slate, and OSU will be more experienced in the secondary.

Jesse Kroll (FD: $5,200, DK: $4,100) – Kroll is the CMU player I’m most likely to get some exposure to. After a solid junior season (36/582/4), he’ll step into the WR1 role for CMU as they lost Titus Davis to graduation. He comes at a fairly cheap price point around the industry and CMU should be forced to the air as they’re expected to be trailing throughout. OSU did struggle against the pass last year, and although they’re expected to be improved, Kroll makes for a solid WR3 or flex option at his cheap price point.

Martez Walker (FD: $4,500, DK: $4,100) – I’m not planning on using him, but if you’re feeling frisky he’s one of the cheapest starting RBs on the slate, so he could be a cheap volume source to grab you a TD.

Michigan Wolverines at Utah Utes – O/U 58

Breakdown

This is a game that is much more interesting in real life purposes for me than in fantasy purposes. Both times were great defending the run last year as Utah only allowed 3.7 YPC and Michigan only allowed 3.2 YPG, and both are expected to be solid once again. The strength of Utah’s offense is their star running back Devontae Booker, while Jim Harbaugh will be looking to instill his hard-nosed style in the Wolverines. Last year Utah won 26-10 in an ugly game that was very fantasy unfriendly. Based on the Vegas total and the solid defensive units, this looks like it could be a similar outcome for fantasy purposes and is one I’ll mostly be avoiding.

Michigan

Elite Options

NONE

Secondary Options

De’Veon Smith (FD: $6,200, DK: $4,500) – This would be purely a dice roll and honestly one that I’m unlikely to make. I’m not too high on the UM passing game and Harbaugh is a guy who will pound the rock, so theoretically their RB should be a solid target. The problem is that this looks like a RBBC and Harbaugh won’t publicly commit to a RB. From digging around it sounds like Drake Johnson will be a factor down the road, but he’s working his way back from an ACL injury. The Michigan message boards seem to believe that Smith is currently the top dog that will start in Game 1. He’s cheap and he will be low owned due to the uncertainty, but keep in mind this game is expected to be low scoring and Utah is solid defensively.

Jake Butt (FD: $3,500, DK: $3,300) – He’s the UM guy I’m mostly likely to roster and he’s one of the top TE options on the board at FD. He’s apparently having a terrific camp and Harbaugh’s system is one of the few collegiate systems that will utilize the TE as his Stanford TEs put up solid numbers.

Utah

Elite Options

NONE

Secondary Options

Devontae Booker (FD: $9,300, DK: $8,300) – I debated as to whether stick Booker in the elite option or secondary option category as he’s an elite talent but this is not a great matchup. He’s a guy I’ll be heavily targeting once the Utes get into their Pac 12 schedule, as he racked up 1,566 rushing yards and 10 TDs to go with 306 receiving yards last season. Utah is openly talking about getting him 30 touches a game so the volume will certainly be there. however, given the tough matchup, high price point, and the fact that I think Michigan will likely stuff the box and force Travis Wilson to beat them, he’s a guy I’ll have less exposure to this week than in other weeks down the road. There’s certainly something to be said for his volume, which could lead all RBs this week, so he’s definitely in play, but he doesn’t have his typical upside. I will note that Michigan shut him down last year as he only had 11 carries for 34 yards, but that was before his workload really increased.

Travis Wilson (FD: $7,500, DK: $6,600) – You could see some game log chasers go after Wilson after he finished last season on a high note. However, I won’t be one of them as those games came against two very bad defenses. He’s actually very athletic and with his size (6’7, 233), he’s a threat rushing the ball around the goal line, but his passing is very hit or miss. Given his dual threat abilities, he does have the ability to put up a big game here or there, but he’s very volatile and I’ll pass here given Michigan’s solid defense. You could see UM stack the box so maybe he can hit a big play in the passing game, and his top returning WR is Kenneth Scott (48/506/4).

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