CFB Grind Down - Week 3 Late Slate - Page 3

by Andy Smith (a25smith) Last Updated 2015-09-19 20:23:47

Ole Miss Rebels at Alabama Crimson Tide – O/U 52.5

Mississippi

As a fan I cannot wait to watch this game, but as a DFS player I’m a little more leery and this game is throwing me a little bit. Mississippi is AVERAGING 74.5 PPG to start the year and has looked like a juggernaut offensively, but that did come against Fresno State and UT Martin. This isn’t the NBA playoffs and I’m not trying to play hero ball so I typically just avoid the Alabama defense. Their QB, Chad Kelly, has been very impressive but I’m going to see how he performs on the road against this Alabama defense before jumping on board here. Most RBs (not named Ezekiel Elliott) also struggle against this Tide run defense so I’ll pass on Jaylen Walton here as well.

Ole Miss has a talented WR corp and while Cody Core and Quincy Adeboyejo have stolen the show so far this season, this seems like a game that Laquon Treadwell has to be productive in if they stand a chance of pulling the upset for a second straight year. He hasn’t had that bust out game yet but he’s still cheap at under $6,000 and Ole Miss is going to need his size to move the chains in this one. He’s the guy I’d most likely have exposure to. Ole Miss also has a weapon at TE in Evan Engram but he hasn’t seemed to really click with Kelly yet so I’ll hold off.

Alabama

This Ole Miss defense is salty in its own right, which is why I’m most likely just going to enjoy this game as a fan, and hope the defenses dominate. Derrick Henry is right there with the top RBs in the nation and already has 6 rushing TDs on the season. If he runs through this Ole Miss defense then you can expect for his Heisman campaign to be off and running. However, it won’t come easy as the Ole Miss defense is very talented and held Alabama to 168 yards on 44 carries last year (Henry had 17 carries for 37 yards). I don’t hate the play but I think Alex Collins, Nick Chubb, and Devontae Booker are in much better spots so that’s where I’m heading if I’m spending at RB.

Outside of Henry there’s not a lot to be excited about as Jake Coker is just a game manager at QB, no one looks to have filled the shoes of Amari Cooper. Robert Foster has been their top WR to date so he’d be the guy I’d grab, but I’ll likely pass.

Brigham Young Cougars at UCLA Bruins – O/U 60

BYU

BYU has been living good recently as they completed a hail mary against Nebraska to win their opener. Last week, with under a minute to play, they threw a long TD on fourth down to take the lead and topped it off with a pick six (I was in Vegas for the RG party and that pick six return with under 30 seconds left cost me my under bet – not too happy with BYU currently).

This will be their toughest test by far as they are 16 point under dogs and have a fairly low team total at 21 points. Adam Hine looks like he’s taken over as their lead back, but with Jamaal Williams out their running game just haven’t been all that productive, so I’ll need more than a one game sample size before I jump on board with their running game. He is just $4,800 on DK, which is cheap for a lead RB there.

Tanner Mangum will be the QB trying to fill Taysom Hill’s shoes and he’s had a solid start as he threw for 300 yards last week. I’m expecting some solid improvement from the UCLA defense and this feels like a potential let down spot after two emotional wins for the Cougars so I’m looking elsewhere. Mitch Matthews was thought to be their top WR coming into the year, but he’s had a slow start and they’re really spreading the ball around right now.

UCLA

BYU has been playing some stiff run defense through two games and it’s come against solid competition in Nebraska and Boise State so I don’t love this spot for Paul Perkins. However I do like this spot for Josh Rosen as the BYU secondary is their weak link defensively. Rosen is coming off of a down game so some people may jump ship here, but with BYU playing tough run defense, UCLA should take to the air more than last week against UNLV. He’ll obviously be be tough to squeeze in on DK, but on FD he’s a great mid-range play and I’m really honing in on him or Patrick Mahomes in the mid-range if I can’t afford Luke Falk. He hasn’t really settled in on a favorite WR yet, but I still think Jordan Payton is the guy and he’s a guy I’ll have exposure to against this poor BYU secondary.

Utah Utes at Fresno State Bulldogs – O/U 54

Utah

It sounds like Utah starting QB, Travis Wilson, will miss this one with an injury, but be sure to check back before kick off to confirm. If he’s out then Kendall Thompson will get the start. He isn’t available on FD, but he checks in at $6,400 on DK so he’s in that Sefo Liufau, Christian Hackenberg, C.J. Beathard, Jerrod Heard area on DK(vomit). He brings some dual threat ability to the table and this Fresno State defense is not very good. If Wilson is declared out, I’ll probably get some exposure to him, but my worry is that this is a Devontae Booker game.

Booker is an absolute workhorse for the Utes and is averaging 31 touches per game so far this season. This game is on the road with only a two TD spread and Utah likely with their backup QB. That profiles as a great spot for them to continue to ride Booker hard, and he should shred this Fresno State defense. On FD he’s right there with Nick Chubb and Alex Collins as my top options and I’ll have at least one of those three in every lineup. On DK good luck trying to squeeze him in. Utah has been a run heavy team and with a backup QB likely starting I’ll pass on their receivers here.

Fresno State

Fresno State has a brewing QB controversy between Zack Greenlee and true freshman Chason Virgil, and neither has been great so their QB and WR are off the board for me. The strength of this Fresno State team is with their RB, Marteze Waller, who is a quality back. The problem is that the strength of this Utah team is also their run defense, and they already stymied the Michigan run game in the opener.

Iowa State Cyclones at Toledo Rockets – O/U 58

Iowa State

This is a DK only game and Iowa State finds themselves as underdogs facing a Toledo team that just knocked off Arkansas. Toledo returned their entire defensive line and was expected to have one of the better lines in the MAC, and that proved to be true as they shut down a potent Arkansas run game. It’s a bad matchup for the ISU run game and they are RBBC so cross them off the list.

I like their QB, S.B. Richardson as he sometimes puts up sneaky big games, but with a tight cap, I’m not looking to spend $7,600 on him. He has a solid WR group to distribute the ball too so it’s mostly a pass for me, but I don’t mind Allen Lazard at $4,700. He’s a big red zone target and former top 100 recruit in the nation. Due to the tough Toledo run defense, I’m expecting ISU to have to throw the ball in this one if they’re going to move the ball and Toledo looks to be most vulnerable in the secondary.

Toledo

The primary play from this one and hopefully he goes overlooked is Kareem Hunt at $6,800. He was suspended for the first two games so he’s showing 0.0 fantasy PPG, but he’s a guy who ran for 1,650 yards and 16 TDs last season. He’s expected to step right back into the starting line up, and this is the cheapest price point we’ll see on him all year long. With a tight cap, he’s a staple in my lineups as this ISU team struggled against the run last year and has picked it right where they left off as they’re allowing 260 rush YPG and 5.8 YPC.

Philip Ely is another cheap starting QB,but I’d lean towards the dual threat options in the 6k range over him. His top receiving option so far this season has been Corey Jones but they also have another receiver in Alonzo Russell who as least 700 receiving yards in each of his three seasons.

Jump to Page 1 2 3