CFB Grind Down: Week 5 - Early Slate - Page 3

by Andy Smith (a25smith) Last Updated 2015-10-02 21:47:21

Florida State Seminoles at Wake Forest Demon Deacons – O/U 46

Florida State

This is another East Coast game, so we’ll have to monitor the weather, and really there’s not much reason to even be messing around with this one. Everett Golson has been disappointing, but there’s talk out of the FSU camp that they’ll open up the offense a little this week. The problem is that it will be hard to do in this weather and I wouldn’t trust Golson anyway with all of the other top tier options. Maybe a guy like Travis Rudolph becomes interesting if the weather holds off, but he’s not particularly cheap and there’s just not enough volume.

The play in this one is clearly Dalvin Cook. He’s FSU’s offense and the guy they’ll have to lean on this season. Overall this isn’t a slate where I want to spend at RB, so I wouldn’t pay his tag on DK, but he’s underpriced at $7,700 on FD. His numbers were down last game as Boston College can really stop the run and he also left early with an injury. Jordan Howard shredded this Wake defense for over 150 rushing yards, and Cook is a top five back in the country, so he should be in for another big day.

Wake Forest

Kendall Hinton produced a big day filling in for John Wolford last weekend, and can really run. However, Wolford could return this week and this is a terrible matchup for Wake Forest anyway, so I’d just fade this entire offense.

Alabama Crimson Tide at Georgia Bulldogs – O/U 53.5

Alabama

I wrote that Texas Tech/Baylor is the game of the day, and if I wasn’t writing for a DFS website, my inbox would be littered with hate mail and death threats from livid Alabama and Georgia fans. From a non-fantasy perspective, this game is clearly the game of the day, and is one I’m looking forward to watching, but not one that I’m looking to target. What I’m hoping for here is that the magnitude of this game leads to ownership from the casual DFS player. These are two very good defenses and the total on this one is a very pedestrian 53 points. The QB play for the Tide has really been rocky, so I want no part of this passing attack, and the only real option for me is Derrick Henry. Henry is obviously one of the elite backs in the country, and while he’s a little cheap for his talent level, he’ll still put a dent in your ability to roster players from those higher scoring games. Given Bama’s QB struggles, Georgia will likely stack the box. Ole Miss was able to contain him for 127 rushing yards and one TD, which is nothing given some of the stat lines we are likely to see in other games.

Georgia

I’m taking the same approach to Georgia as I am Alabama. I don’t typically mess with this Alabama defense, especially their run defense. They’re allowing 2.0 YPC and have already played Ole Miss and Wisconsin, so I’ll be fading Nick Chubb here and rely on the Tide defense to hold him to 100 yards and a TD. Greyson Lambert has been great so far, but he’s a game manager at best and I think he’s due for some regression. The biggest worry for me in playing the Henry and Chubb fade is that the QBs start turning the ball over, leading to short fields.

North Carolina Tar Heels at Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets – O/U 61.5

North Carolina

Larry Fedora is up to his old tricks and Marquise Williams was benched for Mitch Trubisky in the last game. Williams is expected to start, but who knows how Fedora handles it this weekend. I just can’t touch this QB situation, although this Georgia Tech defense can be picked on. This UNC offense is frustrating as there’s plenty of talent here, but they really spread things around. I like Elijah Hood at RB, but his volume is a concern as he hasn’t topped 16 carries this season, so it’s tough to pull the trigger with him in anything but a large field, low dollar GPP.

Georgia Tech

This is a game that has a solid total at 61.5 points, but it’s just hard to nail down where the production will come from. Justin Thomas has really struggled to start the season, but the UNC defense has continued to struggle against the run as they’re 111th in rushing yards per game allowed and allow over 5.0 YPC. I don’t mind throwing a dart with him for a low dollar GPP, but wouldn’t touch him for cash games.

Patrick Skov has been the most consistent option for the Yellow Jackets, but he is very TD dependent. I think he gets back into the end zone this weekend, so I think he’s a solid option on FD at his price point. Outside of Skov and Thomas, this running game is just too tough to predict, so they’re the only potential targets for me.

Ohio State Buckeyes at Indiana Hoosiers – O/U 64

Ohio State

The Buckeyes are in a nice spot as their team total is 42.5 points. Cardale Jones wasn’t great last weekend, but the encouraging thing was that Urban Meyer stuck with him longer and he saw the lion’s share of the snaps. With Indiana on tap here, that’s what I really needed to see, and I particularly like his price point on FA. On FD and DK, I think he’s in play as a GPP option to save from those high end QBs, as Indiana is 125th in passing defense so far this season.

The big question in this one is whether this is a Cardale Jones game or an Ezekiel Elliott game. I think one of them goes off, and if you’re spending at RB, Elliott is my favorite option. I’m personally targeting the upper tier QB and WR for cash games, so I can’t afford Elliott in cash games, but will look to him in some GPPs. He’s yet to bust out for that huge game we saw down the stretch last year, but this looks like it could be the spot, as Indiana is just good enough offensively to keep the OSU starters around for 3 to 3.5 quarters.

The WR at Ohio State have been tough to nail down, and with all the WR options out there, I’m probably not going to mess with it this weekend. Michael Thomas and Braxton Miller are the two top options, and I’d lean Thomas’ way if I was going that route.

Indiana

Indiana is a solid offense and has a team total of 21 points, but I just typically avoid the top defenses, and Ohio State certainly has a top notch defense. There are plenty of other options on this slate, so I’m unlikely to force the issue here. The one interesting decision is Jordan Howard on FanDuel, as they’ve priced him all the way down at $6,600, so he’s coming off at around a $2,000 discount. Last year, Indiana’s RB Tevin Coleman did put 228 rushing yards and three TDs on the Buckeyes, so maybe the Indiana run game can get going again here. I wouldn’t pay his price anywhere else, but that FanDuel price point is intriguing for a tournament. Simmie Cobbs is also just $4,800 on FD, but it’s tough to risk a WR slot on him in a tough matchup like this.

Boston College Eagles at Duke Blue Devils – O/U 39.5

Boston College

This one checks in with the lowest total on the day at just 39.5 points and mostly is a complete fade. Boston College plays at a very slow pace and really grinds you, and they’re likely to play two QBs, so I’d avoid that situation. They did lose their top RB, Jon Hilliman, for the season last week, and two other RBs (Myles Willis and Marcus Outlaw) are listed as questionable. Tyler Rouse should be the biggest beneficiary here and Boston College is taking him off of special teams duty, so some are speculating he’ll receive heavy volume on Saturday. If Willis and Outlaw are out, he potentially provides great volume in a run heavy offense, so that’s a situation to monitor. Overall I still wouldn’t get too crazy due to the low total as well as the fact that Duke is allowing only 2.9 YPC on the season.

Duke

Boston College really mucks up a game as they play slow and play rock solid defense, so I’ll be avoiding the Blue Devils in this one.

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