CFL Grind Down (DraftKings): Week 1

by Seth Yates (sethayates) Last Updated 2016-06-26 02:26:37

Welcome to the RotoGrinders CFL Grind Down, an all-encompassing preview of the week ahead in the CFL from a daily fantasy sports perspective.

We’ll take a look at 2015 CFL statistics and highlight the strongest plays based on the numbers. This article is meant to cover the basics. If you like someone for sound reasons don’t be afraid if they aren’t listed.

All charts include statistics from the 2015 CFL 18-game season. No playoff statistics are included.

CFL Introduction:

Before we take a deep-dive into the first ever CFL slate on DraftKings, let’s discuss the major differences between CFL and NFL.

Editor’s Note: The Week 2 contest in our RotoGrinders King of Summer is the $30,000 CFL Rouge. Join now! There’s never been a better time to try DFS NFL for just $3 – and win some added prizes along the way!

Playing Surface: For starters, the CFL playing surface is both longer and wider than an NFL field. A CFL field is 110 yards long (100 in NFL), 65 yards wide (53.5 in NFL), and has 20 yard end zones (10 in NFL). The CFL goal posts are also placed in the front of the end zone as opposed to the back for the NFL.

Rosters: The CFL uses a 46 player roster instead of 53 and also includes 12 players on the field instead of 11. The extra player is usually a HB or slot WR on offense and an extra DB on defense. Also, most CFL teams do not employ a TE. Each team must also start a total of at least 7 National (Canadian-born) players between offense and defense.

Downs and Plays: The CFL only allows 3 downs instead of 4 to make 10 yards and the play clock is 20 seconds between plays as opposed to 40 in the NFL. This makes for a much faster paced game.

Open Field Kick: Canadian football also retains the open-field kick as a legal play, allowing a kick to be taken from anywhere on the field

Rouge Perhaps the strangest thing for a first time viewer is the “Rouge” or “Single.” A single point, called the Rouge is awarded to the kicking team when either 1) Kicking team misses a field goal or punts the football and the receiving team catches the football and fails to run out of their own end zone. The kicking team will receive one point. Or 2) Kicking team misses a field goal or punts the football and the ball goes out of bounds in the end zone. The kicking team will receive one point.

If that sounds confusing, I invite you to enjoy this YouTube clip of a game that ended with an attempted field goal, two open field kicks and finally a touchdown. Now that many of you are thoroughly confused, let’s get into the Week 1 CFL Slate.

Hamilton Tiger-Cats at Toronto Argonauts (THU 730ET)

Overview: Over/Under: 53 (1 of 4) Spread: Hamilton +4.5, Implied Total: Hamilton 24 Toronto 29

Hamilton Tiger-Cats

2015 Passing

Quarterback

The Hamilton Tiger-Cats face uncertainty at the most important position. Zach Collaros was possibly on his way to winning 2015 Most Oustanding Player (MOP) before he tore his ACL in Week 13. Collaros isn’t likely to return until early-to-mid July. That means that former Oregon Duck Jeremiah Masoli ($8400) will draw the start. Masoli is nothing special, he’s mostly been a career journeyman but he did have a career high 349 passing yards in last year’s East Final. The problem here is the Tiger-Cats only have an implied team total of 24. Unless you are building several lineups, Masoli doesn’t offer enough savings relative to the top options at QB and Jonathan Jennings is cheaper.

2015 Rushing

Running Back

C.J. Gable ($6500) is often injured (only played 12 games the last two years) but when he’s healthy he is the Tiger-Cats starting RB. He comes into the season at full strength and should be viewed as the RB1 here. In the 5 games he played last year, he averaged 58.6 yards (albeit with no touchdowns). He also tacked on 10 catches for 82 yards on 15 targets which is helpful on a PPR site like DK. Keep in mind though that the majority of your points on DK are not likely to come from a RB. Especially not in a passing league like the CFL.

2015 Receiving

Wide Receiver:

As you can see from the chart above, Luke Tasker ($8200) was the Tiger-Cats target monster last season with 104 targets. He hauled in 74 of them. If you think Masoli can get him the ball, Tasker is certainly in play but he isn’t my favorite high-priced WR.

Chad Owens ($7000) The former MOP gets his first crack at revenge as he played the past six seasons with Toronto. He saw 76 targets last season in Toronto but he had statistically his worst season there with only 55 catches for 570 yards. At 34 years old, Owens is hoping to rebound this season but it remains to be seen how much market share he will be able to command in the Tiger-Cats offense.

Brandon Banks ($5700) is considered the team’s speedster but he only saw 34 targets last season of which he caught 22. I don’t think you can pay this price for Banks considering the low targets and catch rate.

Spencer Watt ($3400) don’t let the price fool you here. Watt was signed in 2015 but sat out the entire year with a knee injury. If your roster construction requires a cheap WR this a great place to go for a low-owned GPP flyer. Watt can run any route and should see time in the rotation at WR.

Toronto Argonauts

2015 Passing

Quarterback

QB Trevor Harris departed for Ottowa so Toronto will start Ricky Ray ($9300). At 36 years old, Ray has struggled with injury over the past three seasons. Ray still has talent though and he’s looked as healthy as ever this preseason. More importantly, Ray has a good group of young WRs. With both the highest over/under and team total on the slate, you can fire up Ray with confidence in any format.

2015 Rushing

Running Back

The CFL is a much faster game than the NFL. This generally means teams pass the ball more and RBs provide most of their value as a pass blocker. Tyrell Sutton led the league with just 1059 yards last season. Ideally, that means we want to play dual threat RBs and as many WRs as possible. Enter Anthony Coombs ($4500) who is listed as a RB on DraftKings but he’s actually a slot receiver. He only had 9 carries for 38 yards last season but he hauled in 57 catches for 486 yards on 74 targets. At only $4500, Coombs provides both some upside. In this price range the only good options are Coombs and Travis Greene ($4000).

If you want to play a traditional RB instead, Brandon Whitaker ($6300) should see the lion’s share of carries due to the fact that his backup Henry Josey is injured. Keep in mind though, the lion’s share of carries last year was only 121 in 15 games for a total of 636 yards and 3 TDs. Like Coombs, Whitaker also provides value in the passing game as he had 53 catches for 440 yards on 66 targets.

2015 Receiving

Wide Receiver

Last season Toronto had perhaps the best WR corps in the league. With Owens now playing for Hamilton, the door is wide open for youngsters Diontae Spencer ($7200), Tori Gurley ($7500), Vidal Hazelton ($6600), and Kevin Elliot ($5800) to step up. The combo of Spencer, Gurley, Hazelton, and Elliot combined for 2738 yards and 27 TDs last season. I list them as a “combo” because on a week-to-week basis you just hope you pick the right guy. Luckily, this week the choices have been whittled down. Diontae Spencer has been ruled out with a back injury. Based on target data from last season, Chad Owens’ 76 targets and Spencer’s 46 targets are up for grabs. I don’t think you can go wrong with Hazelton ($6600), Gurley ($7500), or Elliot ($5800). I like them in that order.

Montreal Alouettes at Winnipeg Blue Bombers (FRI 8:30ET)

Overview: Over/Under: 49 (3 of 4) Spread: Montreal +3, Implied Total: Montreal 23 Winnipeg 26

Montreal Alouettes

2015 Passing

Quarterback

The Alouettes took a spin on the Quarterback Carousel last season and didn’t appear to enjoy it. They rotated Cato, Crompton and March without much success before finally trading for Kevin Glenn $(8700). This season they’ll stick with the journeyman Glenn who has played for nearly every team in the CFL. Glenn played most of last season for the Roughriders but did throw for 756 yards after he was traded to the Alouettes. With an over/under of 49 and an implied team total of just 23 Glenn is a bit overpriced at $8700.

Also, quick FYI here, if you were considering Vernon Adams Jr. he’s fourth on the team’s depth chart and is likely to be inactive Week 1.

2015 Rushing

Running Back

Tyrell Sutton ($7300) lead the CFL in rushing last season despite missing three games. He finished with just over 1000 yards. He also chipped in 5 TDs and caught 43 passes for 334 yards. The big problem with Sutton though is that Jerome Messam is cheaper at $6700 and Andrew Harris is only $700 more at $8000 and both have a good chance of outscoring him. (Update: Andrew Harris strained his hamstring in practice on Wednesday but is starting Friday)

2015 Receiving

Wide Receiver

Looking at the chart above, you’ll notice Duron Carter ($8000) is not listed. Carter finished the 2014 season third in the CFL in receiving. He spent 2015 trying to catch on with the NFL but was cut by the Colts. The son of NFL great Chris Carter, Duron is a very talented receiver and he’s worth every bit of $8000 if he can regain his 2014 form.

S.J. Green ($6400) had three consecutive 1,000 yard seasons prior to 2014. He was able to cross the 1,000 yard plateau again last season even with the poor QBs throwing him the ball. We probably can’t expect 119 targets this year with Carter back in the mix but I still love this price for Green. If he’s not the best value mid-priced WR he’s near the top of the list.

Kenny Stafford ($5400) Returns to the Alouettes after playing for Edmonton last season. He caught 47 passes for 732 yards last year in Edmonton but he’s the clear third-wheel this season in Montreal.

Winnipeg Blue Bombers

2015 Passing

Quarterback

Drew Willy ($9600) only played in 7 games last year because of injury. In those seven games he threw for 1438 yards. If the Bombers’ offensive line can keep Willy upright this season he should do well. Winnipeg has an implied team total of 26 with an over/under of 49. Ultimately, at $9600 what will determine whether I play Willy or not is whether I’m also using one or more of his weapons.

2015 Rushing

Running Back

Andrew Harris ($8000) finished last season with 1039 yards and 8 TDs. Both marks were good for second in the league. That was achieved playing for BC though. In the offseason he joined Winnipeg. Harris has a good shot to be the top RB every week but you also have to pay a steep price. He’s also a dual threat who has a legitimate chance at 500 receiving yards. If you can make it work, Harris is a great play even as the most expensive RB.

If you plan to use Harris be sure to monitor his status. I ran across this tweet that says he appeared to tweak his hamstring in practice. Make sure you have a late-swap plan in place.

Update: Per Bob Irving, Andrew Harris did not practice on Wednesday and is doubtful for Friday’s game The only other RB on the Bomber’s active roster is Pascal Lochard. Most likely Tim Flanders ($2500) will be activated from the practice roster. Flanders is a 5’9 210 RB who exceled at Sam Houston in college. He was a favorite among many analysts in deep rookie drafts but never caught on to an NFL team. At only $2500 Flanders provides excellent value. He’s close to a must-play when you consider the relative lack of expected points at RB and what the savings can provide you at WR.

Update 6/23: Andrew Harris is listed as the starting RB on the Bombers depth chart. Tim Flanders was added to the 46-man roster as a precaution but with Harris starting Flanders is no longer a good punt. This situation is worth following up until kickoff on Friday but for now Harris is the only RB in consideration but $8000 is a lot to pay for someone with a bad hamstring.

2015 Receiving

Wide Receiver

Weston Dressler ($7100) is another WR rejoining the CFL after a short-lived attempt to join the Kansas City Chiefs. Dressler had four consecutive 1000 yard seasons before leaving for the NFL. Darvin Adams ($6900) also makes a great target as he caught 61 balls last year for 839 yards as does Ryan Smith ($7800) who caught 59 balls for 991 yards last year with the SAS Roughriders. If you want to handcuff Drew Willy with one or more of his WRs you may have to make multiple lineups to cover all the bases. Also, you need to keep in mind that Montreal will be starting two rookie DBs this week so you probably should stack Willy with his WRs and maybe even play them without Willy.

Ottawa Redblacks at Edmonton Eskimos (SAT 7:00PM)

Overview: Over/Under: 51.5 (2 of 4) Spread: Ottawa +6, Implied Total: Ottawa 23 Edmonton 29

Ottawa Redblacks

2015 Passing

Quarterback

The Redblacks signed Trevor Harris away from Toronto but make no mistake Henry Burris ($10,400) is still the starter. Burris won the MOP last year at the age of 40 while helping to produce four 1,000 yard WRs. The over/under on this game is set at 51.5 and Burris proved last year he has plenty in the tank but his salary of $10,400 is very limiting. You can still make it work, you just have to want it.

2015 Rushing

Running Back

Jeremiah Johnson ($7500) led Ottawa in rushing and led the league in touchdowns in 2015. He bolted in free agency though which should open up a timeshare situation between Travon Van ($6100) and Travis Greene ($4000). It appears that Van will be the lead back but his price is too close to Jerome Messam who I like better. Both of these RBs are GPP-only with Greene probably being the better option due to his low price.

2015 Receiving

Wide Receivers

As I mentioned above, Ottawa had four 1000 yard WRs last season. They are Greg Ellingson ($7200), Chris Williams ($8700), Brad Sinopoli ($6400) and Ernest Jackson($7300). If you’ve played much NCAA DFS you’ve seen situations like this before. Guessing the right WR on a week-to-week basis will be difficult. For my money, I like Ellingson and Williams but you can make a case for any of these four.

Edmonton Eskimos

2015 Passing

Quarterback

Mike Reilly ($10,100) and the defending champion Eskimos begin their title defense against Ottawa. Reilly’s hard-nosed style of play has gained him the injury-prone tag but when healthy Reilly has a chance to compete for MOP. If I’m paying at QB, Reilly is my number one but for the most part my QB will be dictated by which WRs I want to play. I’ll definitely have a Reilly/Bowman/Walker stack though.

2015 Rushing

Running Back

With John White ($6800) returning from an acl injury that cost him his 2015 season, we have to assume he’ll take over again as the starter. He will have some competition from Shakir Bell ($4700) who filled in nicely in his absence. White was averaging 6.9 YPC in 2014 so I have to give him the nod here.

2015 Receiving

Wide Receiver

The duo of Adarius Bowman ($9000) and Derel Walker ($8600) is arguably the league’s top pairing. Bowman and Walker combined for 2,414 receiving yards, behind only Rogers (who departed for the NFL) and Marquay McDaniel in Calgary with 2,486. With plenty of mid-range value available, it is possible to stack Reilly, Bowman, and Walker on the same team and I actually expect this to be somewhat popular in tournaments.

Calgary Stampeders at BC Lions (SAT 10:00PM)

Overview: Over/Under: 48(4 of 4) Spread: Calgary -4, Implied Total: Calgary 26 BC 22

Calgary Stampeders

2015 Passing

Quarterback

Bo Levi Mitchell ($9500) is coming off career highs in 2015. Mitchell passed for 4500 yards while playing in all 18 games. The Stamps have a team total of 26 in a game that features an over/under of 48. Mitchell will need to do his damage without Eric Rogers and Jeff Fuller who both bolted for the NFL. He’s certainly capable of that though.

2015 Rushing

Running Back

After the retirement of three-time MOP Jon Cornish, the lead RB job is Jerome Messam’s ($6700) for the taking. Messam made it clear he isn’t trying to replace Cornish, he’s trying to be Jerome Messam. He has a point, Messam rushed for 826 yards last year on 6.2 YPC. He can stand on his own accolades. He’s my top play at RB when factoring in price.

2015 Receiving

Wide Receiver

Calgary has been known for it’s great receivers for years. That is apparent by the talent they’ve lost to the NFL in Fuller and Rogers. Marquay McDaniel ($7400) is the lone returning 1000-yard receiver but the Stamps are hoping the addition of former All-Star Bakari Grant ($6200) can help. Beyond that, the Stamps hope either Joe West ($3900) or Anthony Parker ($3600) can make the leap.

BC Lions

2015 Passing

Quarterback

The DraftKings pricing algorithm has absolutely no respect for Jonathan Jennings ($8300). One popular strategy in NFL DFS is to load up on a cheap QB (where points are easier to come by) in order to fit expensive players at every other position. Jennings is the cheapest starter at $8300 but he probably shouldn’t be. He entered 2015 as the third-stringer but was given an opportunity due to injury and promptly threw for 2000 yards and 15 touchdowns in seven games. Even though Vegas only gives the Lions a team total of 22 I still like Jennings better than Masoli and some others who are priced above him.

2015 Rushing

Running Back

RB: The departure of Andrew Harris has created what looks like a timeshare at RB. Jeremiah Johnson ($7500) led the league in rushing touchdowns last year with Ottawa but he’ll compete with Anthony Allen ($5600) for carries. Johnson isn’t in play at all at $7500 and I have minimal interest in Allen. There’s no need to take a RB in a timeshare since you only have to roster one RB on DK.

2015 Receiving

Wide Receiver

The rise of Jonathan Jennings last year correlated to the reemergence or Emmanuel Arceneaux ($7900). In six games with Jennings at QB Arceneaux caught six TDs. The retirement of Austin Collie should open up some reps for Shawn Gore ($3800) but the real beneficiary is free agent addition Nick Moore ($6800) who eclipsed 1000 yards for BC in 2013.