Bears vs. Patriots Odds, Picks, and Prediction
Bears vs. Patriots Odds
| Bears Odds | +8.5 |
| Patriots Odds | -8.5 |
| Over/Under | 40 |
| Date | Monday, Oct. 24 |
| Time | 8:15 p.m. |
| TV | ESPN |
Week 7 of the NFL season will conclude on Monday Night Football, with the Chicago Bears traveling to Gillette Stadium to battle the New England Patriots. In this matchup, oddsmakers are expecting New England to secure a comfortable victory, pricing the Patriots as 8.5-point home favorites on the spread.
Let’s take a deeper look at the matchup to see where NFL bettors can find value at sportsbooks in this contest.
Chicago Bears
Nearly two months into the regular season, it is readily apparent that the Bears are a one-dimensional offense, which is a major concern when facing a Bill Belichick-coached team that consistently takes away the opposing team’s top threat. Entering play, Chicago ranks 24th in offensive EPA/play, with Justin Fields ranking 24th in EPA/play and 31st in success rate among qualified signal callers. The Bears have been underwhelming on the ground as well, ranking 17th in Rush EPA/play this year. Chicago has two capable running backs with Khalil Herbert and David Montgomery in the backfield, but negative game scripts continue to mitigate the impact of Chicago’s running game on a weekly basis. If Belichick can neutralize Herbert and Montgomery out of the backfield in this spot, Chicago’s offense could struggle mightily in primetime.
Per ESPN, the Bears rank 27th in run defense DVOA through six games, with only the Seattle Seahawks, Philadelphia Eagles, Houston Texans, Detroit Lions, Los Angeles Chargers, and New York Giants allowing more yards-per-carry to opponents in 2022. The secondary unit has also been underwhelming, ranking 20th in Dropback EPA/play this fall. If there is any reason to be optimistic about this group against New England, it is due to the fact that there are no major injuries to report ahead of kickoff.
New England Patriots
According to Tom Pelissero, Mac Jones will be back under center for the Patriots this evening. Yet, it is worth wondering whether or not that is a good thing for this offensive attack. In his first three games this season, Jones threw only two touchdowns against five interceptions, and currently ranks 29th in QBR among qualified signal callers. From Week 1 to Week 3, the Patriots ranked 22nd in Dropback EPA/play with Jones on the field, but New England ranked 6th in Dropback EPA/play from Week 4 to Week 6 – led by Bailey Zappe. Transitioning back to Jones likely means that bettors will see a healthy dose of Rhamondre Stevenson on the ground, who has totaled 376 rushing yards in his last four games.
Following a slow start to the new campaign, it appears as though Belichick’s defense is beginning to round into form. In Week 5, the Patriots held the Detroit Lions scoreless at Foxborough, and then limited the Cleveland Browns to only 15 points in Week 6. Cornerback Jack Jones currently leads the league in coverage grade, per Pro Football Focus, and figures to make life extremely difficult for Equanimeous St. Brown and Dante Pettis this evening.
Bears vs. Patriots Picks & Predictions
Tonight, football fans will be “treated” to a matchup featuring two of the least productive quarterbacks in the NFL through the first six weeks of the season. Both Justin Fields and Mac Jones have struggled mightily early in 2022, and things are unlikely to change significantly on Monday Night Football, with both defenses having extra time to prepare for these young signal callers. The strength of both offenses is on the ground, which should lead to a lot of running clock and few quick scores. The under is the smart play for bettors looking to take action in this contest.
PICK: Under 40 (-105 via DraftKings)
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