Primetime Parlay: Chiefs vs. Buccaneers Same Game Parlay Picks and Props
Throughout the NFL season, this article will use ScoresAndOdds’ ParlayIQ tool to examine building same game parlays across various sports betting sites for primetime NFL matchups. We will examine stats, roster news, trends, player props and betting odds across sportsbooks to pick the most profitable combination of outcomes for primetime games. Now let’s build our Chiefs vs. Buccaneers same game parlay for Sunday Night Football.
Happy Sunday, Grinders! With some health being restored to the Tampa Bay Buccaneers roster, the Sunday Night Football game features a sensational quarterback matchup. Tom Brady hosts Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs as both teams look to right the ship after losses in Week 3. With a phenomenal matchup comes a great opportunity to place some bets. Let’s preview the game and build a same game parlay on FanDuel Sportsbook.
Chiefs vs. Buccaneers Same Game Parlay Preview
At the time of this writing, the Buccaneers are 1.5-point favorites on FanDuel Sportsbook and a -118 money line favorite. The implied point total is 46.5 with -110 on either side. The line has bounced around a lot with the Chiefs as many as 2.5-point favorites. Per SAO, 65% of bets and money are on the Chiefs.
For the Chiefs, Marquez Valdez-Scantling seems likely to play this evening after not practicing Thursday with an abdominal injury. The Buccaneers, however, will see an influx of talent return to their offense. Chris Godwin and Julio Jones are expected to test their injuries prior to kickoff but seem optimistic to play. Mike Evans returns from suspension. Donovan Smith is questionable to play but would offer a huge boost to an offensive line struggling to give Tom Brady time.
The Buccaneers’ offense seems to be struggling mightily this season but has not been at full health. The return of Chris Godwin and/or Julio Jones would be an enormous lift to the Buccaneers’ passing game. With the Kansas City Chiefs’ high-octane offense, the Bucs will look to keep pace.
I think in a primetime spot, the game total looks ripe for a bet on the over. If we want to go that route, we will need to correlate some props with that script.
Chiefs-Buccaneers Same Game Parlay Picks
Over 46.5 Points
With a number this low, I don’t think I can resist going over this total. With so many unders hitting as of late, this game has all the making of a back-and-forth affair. The Buccaneers continue to funnel offense through the air with impenetrable run defense. The Bucs will need to keep pace if the Chiefs are airing the ball out throughout the game.
While I do think there is a chance the Buccaneers try to keep Brady upright with the run game, the addition of Chris Godwin would make the quick passing game get moving again. There are several paths to this game becoming a shootout.
We will open with the over on ParlayIQ and use the tool to find additional +EV legs.
Tom Brady Over 263.5 Passing Yards
Well, if I anticipate a shootout, one of these quarterbacks must go over. If the game script lends itself to the Chiefs scoring points in bunches, the Buccaneers will need to move the ball through the air. We wouldn’t be surprised with the Bucs utilizing the quick passing game as an extension of the running game.
Last weekend, Brady was able to clear this number with a group of receivers many people would have never heard of. Cole Beasley was just signed. Scotty Miller was a primary target. Kyle Rudolph was just reinstated. This week, Brady will likely be looking at Mike Evans, Chris Godwin, and Julio Jones. What an infusion of capable pass-catching options.
This game needs Brady to throw the ball to go over. The simulations with ParlayIQ seem to peg these legs at about a +233 price. FanDuel is offering +199. Not a bad start. We should find a leg that negatively correlates to help boost our odds on FanDuel.
Leonard Fournette Under 24.5 Receiving Yards
With Tom Brady going over his passing total in our script, I like the idea of going under for one of his receivers. With Chris Godwin, Mike Evans, and Julio Jones potentially back, Leonard Fournette might see a downtick in targets.
Last week, Fournette was targeted five times. In the first two games, Fournette saw two targets. With all of the mouths to feed, we should not be surprised if Lenny’s usage drops. We will be fading a long gainer on a screen but this might be our best bet. If I want the odds to be boosted, we need to go against our own grain a bit.
Clyde Edwards-Helaire Under 34.5 Rushing Yards
CEH is one of a trio of backs for the Kansas City Chiefs. Last week, he carried the ball seven times for 0 yards. Meanwhile, Jerrick McKinnon was afforded 7 carries and Isiah Pacheco carried the ball three times. The split is not greatly in CEH’s favor and his inefficiency last week won’t give Andy Reid any reason to change the game plan.
The Bucs’ defense notoriously shuts down opposing rushing offenses. If Edwards-Helaire isn’t going to get a full workload, he will struggle to exceed this rushing prop at a measly 2-3 yards per carry. I like the under, here, as it makes sense and slightly deviates from our over script.
SNF Same Game Parlay Review
- Over 46.5 Points
- Tom Brady Over 263.5 Passing Yards
- Leonard Fournette Under 24.5 Receiving Yards
- Clyde Edwards-Helaire Under 34.5 Rushing Yards
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So, we fired these legs up into ParlayIQ to receive the following recommended price.
Unfortunately, we did not see the odds boost we have seen in the past. Take a look at FanDuel’s offering:
As an exercise, I am going to run with this parlay even though the simulations disagree with me. The difference isn’t egregious, but I think this is helpful as I learn to use this tool. I played around with several combinations with the over-game script and struggled to find a massive boost to the expected value. Perhaps ParlayIQ and the simulations are telling me the over is not a worthwhile selection. We will find out, tonight.
Good luck with your use of the tool and see if you can build parlays that the simulations agree with. Share them with us here or on Twitter.
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PLACE THIS BET ON Parlay Price: +1251
Risk: 1/2 unit to win 6.25 units
Good luck with all of your bets and plays this evening. Share your parlays with me on Twitter and any other plays you are making for the game. First touchdown scorers? Touchdowns? DFS lineups? I want to hear it all. Thanks for reading.
Image Credit: Imagn