NFL DFS Showdown Lineup Optimizer Values: DraftKings Picks for Chiefs vs. Lions
NFL Showdown season kicks off with the Chiefs vs. Lions on Thursday Night Football. Our expert analysts are breaking down Draftkings Showdown picks with our in-house NFL DFS lineup optimizer. Sign up for RotoGrinders Premium for full access to our NFL lineup optimizer and fantasy football projections all season long.
The ’23-‘24 NFL season is kicking off with an absolute banger of a game, with the Lions looking to upset the defending Super Bowl champ Chiefs in Arrowhead. The Chiefs have pretty much the same starters as last season, with a couple WR additions in Richie James and rookie Rashee Rice. The Lions have an exciting new trio of Jahmyr Gibbs, David Montgomery, and Sam LaPorta ready to make a big first impression next to superstar WR Amon-Ra St. Brown. This should be a high-scoring Showdown slate, so let’s get in to how to attack it.
NFL DFS Showdown Picks: Chiefs vs. Lions Week 1
Currently this game is sitting at a 54.5 total with the Chiefs favored by 6.5 points. This is the highest total of the entire NFL Week 1, so getting as many playmakers in your Showdown lineup is going to be essential to maximize your upside and take down the slate.
Quarterback
Patrick Mahomes ($18,300/$12,200) has the nuclear upside we’re looking for, and I’d expect him to be the highest-owned player on the slate. Using him in the Captain spot still gives you over $6k remaining per position, which is plenty of salary to build a great lineup, and he’s the must-play of the slate for cash games if you only use one QB.
Jared Goff ($14,100/$9,400) comes at a big discount to Mahomes, and using him at Captain could be the contrarian play that wins you a massive-field GPP. The Lions will likely have to throw a ton to keep up with the Chiefs, so a Detroit stack with Goff at Captain and Mahomes with one of his receivers is definitely a build worth covering somewhere.
Running Back
Jahmyr Gibbs ($12,300/$8,200) is the most exciting RB in this game, as his usage in both the rushing and passing game should give him a pretty solid floor. And if he can break a long TD through the air and poach a short TD on he ground, he could absolutely break this slate.
David Montgomery ($9,900/$6,600) should be the early-down and short-yardage RB, so he’s the most likely Detroit RB to find the endzone. He also has some receiving upside but nowhere near the upside of Gibbs, so if you’re only using one, I’d go with Gibbs in GPPs and Montgomery in cash games.
Isiah Pacheco ($10,200/$6,800) will be looking to build off a great rookie season in which he had 960 total yards and 5 touchdowns. He wasn’t used much in the passing game last season, so I’d rather use more of him in lineups without Mahomes to get max leverage. Using Pacheco on a bring-back lineup with a Detroit stack is a smart game-script play, especially if Pacheco is the reason KC gets a big lead, forcing Goff and company to air it out.
Jerick McKinnon ($8,400/$5,600) is the X-factor for this Chiefs team, as he’s the clear pass-catching back and is part of most red-zone packages. McKinnon can find the endzone in a variety of ways, as evidenced by his 10 touchdowns last season. I like using him on Chiefs stacks and pairing him with Mahomes builds.
Wide Receiver
Amon-Ra St. Brown ($15,300/$10,200) is the clear top WR target in this game, as he should average around 9 targets per game like he did last season. And if the Lions keep this game close, it will most likely be because of Amon-Ra. If you’re doing mass-multi-entry (MME), I could see leaving him off some lineups. But otherwise, I would stack him with Goff in cash games.
Marvin Jones ($9,300/$6,200) is a bit too pricey to consider for cash games, but he’s a nice pivot to stack with Goff in any lineups without Amon-Ra and should be pretty low-owned. Josh Reynolds ($4,200/$2,800) is looking like a great value option, as he comes at a huge discount to the other Detroit WRs and should be on the field just as much as them. He’s even cheaper than the kickers on this slate, so if you need a final Flex player for cheap, Reynolds is my favorite target. Kalif Raymond ($1,200/$800) is a dart-throw GPP play who could get lucky and catch a long TD.
Kadarius Toney ($10,500/$7,000) is dealing with a knee injury, and even if he plays, there is some risk of re-injury or limited snaps. So at this price, he’s just a GPP option for me. If we get any confirmation before the game that he’s actually 100% and will have zero limitations, then he starts to become a cash game option, although his salary will make it tough to fit in both QBs along with safer skill position players.
Skyy Moore ($7,200/$4,800) is by far my favorite Chiefs WR to target in all formats, as he should be the WR1 until Toney is 100%, and he is just way too cheap for a top receiver on the offense with the highest projected team total of the entire week. Marquez Valdes-Scantling ($8,100/$5,400) remains a boom-or-bust option, so I’d only consider him in GPPs, while Rashee Rice, Richie James, Justyn Ross, and Justin Watson are all risky plays that I’d only sprinkle in if you’re doing MME.
Tight End
Travis Kelce ($18,000/$12,000) is the second most expensive player, but we all know he has the ability to be the highest-scoring player any time he steps on the field. I would absolutely use him in the Captain spot on a bunch of teams if you’re doing MME, and I will do my best to fit him on pretty much every Mahomes lineup. On any non-Kelce lineup, I would load up on Moore and McKinnon for max leverage. (Update: Kelce is officially OUT)
Sam LaPorta ($7,500/$5,000) is a high Second Round draft pick that is expected to be a huge contributor as the TE1 his rookie season. He’s 6’3”, 245 pounds with 4.6 speed and a 35” vertical, and with the lack of WR depth on this Lions team, he has a great shot of being second or third in targets behind Amon-Ra and Gibbs. At $5k, I could see him being one of the highest-owned players of the slate, along with Moore, and he should be included in the majority of Detroit stacks along with most KC bring-backs. I even think he’s worth using at Captain in a few lineups.
James Mitchell, Brock Wright, Blake Bell, and Noah Gray are all guys that will need to find the endzone to have any value, so no chance I use any of them in cash games. But their sub $1k salaries could be the key to hitting the right guys in the five other spots in GPPs. **(Update: if Kelce ends up sitting then Noah Gray becomes cash game viable and a strong flex play in all formats)
Defense/Special Teams
With both teams projected for 24+ points each, I’m not looking to use either D/ST much. But if you’re doing MME, I’d definitely include a few KC D/ST lineups and maybe a couple Detroit D/ST ones.
Both Butker ($6,600/$4,400) and Patterson ($6,300/$4,200) have 50+ yard ranges and should be pretty busy with both offenses likely being in field goal range on most of their drives. If you’re only using one, Butker would be my pick, but I like making some lineups with both kickers as a hedge against the QBs not lighting it up.
Thursday Night Football NFL DFS Strategy
Amon-Ra makes a lot of sense as the top Captain option, as he’s $2,700-$3,000 cheaper than Kelce and Mahomes but absolutely has as much upside as both. Either QB would be my next favorite Captain targets, followed by Kelce, while Moore and LaPorta are my favorite value Captains.
The cheaper salaries of the Lions players are actually making a lot of 4-2 Detroit-heavy builds look the most optimal, especially with the low salaries of LaPorta and Reynolds. On KC-heavy builds, I like hedging McKinnon and MVS on different lineups, as they’re basically the same price, while Pacheco and Montgomery are great RB options to mix-and-match in various builds at similar prices. I’m finding Kelce and Gibbs at pretty tough prices to get in with both QBs, so it could be a very contrarian play to get a lineup with Mahomes/Goff/Kelce/Gibbs and mixing some extreme punt plays in the final two spots, especially since St. Brown should be the highest-owned Detroit player on Goff lineups.
DraftKings DFS Showdown Rankings
1. Skyy Moore – Favorite p/$ play of the slate. projected for 8+ fantasy points and a 16.5+ ceiling.
2. Patrick Mahomes – No-brainer highest upside play of the slate with the highest raw projection and ceiling.
3. Amon-Ra St. Brown – Highest upside WR of the slate, who is my favorite p/$ Captain play.
4. Sam LaPorta – My second favorite value play of the slate behind Moore. a must on most Detroit stacks at his price.
5. Goff/Kelce – Both are clear top targets on any lineup you build, but each are dependent on how many other values you include, along with what type of stack you’re going heavy on.
NFL DFS Lineup Optimizer for Thursday Night Football
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