Chiefs vs. Bills Player Props: Top NFL Picks for Mahomes, Allen, and Diggs
What kind of performances can we expect during the NFL Divisional round from Patrick Mahomes, Josh Allen, and Stefon Diggs? Follow along as our NFL betting expert, Nick Galaida, breaks down three of his favorite NFL prop bets for today – Sunday, January 21, 2024. Get all of Nick’s picks, including more football props, at ScoresandOdds.
The NFL Divisional round will wrap up with the most highly-anticipated matchup of the weekend, featuring Patrick Mahomes and the Kansas City Chiefs against Josh Allen and the Buffalo Bills. These two teams have established a heated rivalry with one another after multiple playoff meetings in recent seasons, which should make for good entertainment on Sunday evening.
Ahead of kickoff in this Wild Card matchup, the Bills are favored by 2.5 points on the spread. The over/under is set at 45.5 points.
If looking to wager on the player prop market instead of a side or total today, we have three prop leans for today’s matchup between the Chiefs vs. Bills!
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Chiefs vs. Bills NFL Player Props – Wild Card Round
- Patrick Mahomes OVER 24.5 Completions
- Josh Allen OVER 8.5 Rush Attempts
- Stefon Diggs UNDER 60.5 Receiving Yards
Patrick Mahomes OVER 24.5 Completions (+100), DraftKings
The Bills have been much-improved defensively since Thanksgiving, but they are still not an elite defense against the pass. Since Week 11, Buffalo ranks 9th in success rate against opposing pass attacks, which makes this closer to a mediocre matchup for Patrick Mahomes than a tough matchup. Playing in frigid temperatures last weekend in the Wild Card round, Mahomes still managed 23 completions against the Dolphins. When these two teams met in December, Mahomes had 25 completions despite completing only 58.1% of his pass attempts. Kansas City has been better offensively since making a concerted effort to get the ball to Rashee Rice more consistently. The over is a worthwhile stab here.
Josh Allen OVER 8.5 Rush Attempts (-125), BetMGM
Josh Allen had only 8 rush attempts last week against the Steelers, but his volume was notable considering that Buffalo led by double digits for nearly the entire game and that Allen had a 52-yard rush that resulted in a touchdown. In each of his prior two contests, both of which were must-win scenarios for the Bills, Allen had 11 carries and 15 carries respectively. The Chiefs have been vulnerable against mobile quarterbacks this year, allowing at least 30 rushing yards to Justin Fields, Russell Wilson (twice), Josh Allen, Jake Browning, Easton Stick, and Tua Tagovailoa. It would not be surprising at all to see Allen aggressive with his legs in this matchup.
Stefon Diggs UNDER 60.5 Receiving Yards (-113), Bet365
During the regular season, the Chiefs were one of the best defenses in the NFL when it came to defending opposing no. 1 wide receivers, ranking 5th in DVOA. Overall, Kansas City’s secondary unit has been exceptional this year, ranking 3rd in EPA/play and 2nd in success rate against the pass. Diggs was completely neutralized when these teams met back in December, finishing with only 24 receiving yards despite having 11 targets. It would not be surprising to see another underwhelming performance from Diggs on Sunday considering he has been held to 52 receiving yards or fewer in 7 of his last 9 games.
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