Christmas NFL Props: Best Bets for Browns vs. Packers & Colts vs. Cardinals
What kind of performances can we expect from Aaron Rodgers, Nick Chubb, Aaron Jones, and Carson Wentz? Follow along as NFL betting expert breaks down his four favorite Christmas Day prop bets for the Browns vs. Packers and Colts vs. Cardinals. Not in a state with legal sports betting? Sign up at PrizePicks to get a $100 deposit bonus and start winning cash on NFL player props now!
NFL fans will be treated to two Christmas Day games in 2021, beginning with the Cleveland Browns taking on the Green Bay Packers this afternoon, followed by the Indianapolis Colts and the Arizona Cardinals battling in the evening. Many bettors have likely already locked in their predictions for sides and totals in this contest, but there is plenty of value to be found in the player prop market as well.
If you have not placed your bets on the side or total in these contests, it is worth noting that the value on the spread and the total has been reduced compared to its opening market price. Instead of forcing action on saturated markets, those betting on the NFL today may find more expected value by perusing player props across online sportsbooks.
NFL Christmas Day Player Props
Aaron Rodgers u263.5 Passing Yards
PrizePicks: O/U 253.5 Yards
Aaron Rodgers has ascended to the top of the MVP-discussions in recent weeks with exceptional play over his last four games. Since Week 11, Rodgers has totaled 13 touchdowns without an interception, and has thrown for 307 or more yards three times during that stretch. Yet, unlike the last four games, Rodgers may not be forced to throw nearly as many passes this afternoon against the Cleveland Browns. As a touchdown favorite, Green Bay could look to get ahead early in this one, before turning to a heavy ground attack in the second half to keep the clock moving. Rodgers is likely to play extremely well today, but he may not need as many passing yards as this line suggests to secure a victory. Take the under here.
Carson Wentz o209.5 Passing Yards
PrizePicks: O/U 199.5 Yards
On Thursday Night Football, we talked a lot about market over- and under-reactions in the player prop market. Here again, we see a dramatic overreaction to “(player-popup #carson-wentz)Carson Wentz”:/players/carson-wentz-35558’s recent statistics. In Wentz’s last five games, he has eclipsed this number only once, but he did so by a wide margin–throwing for 306 yards against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. Today, Wentz is likely to attempt a healthy number of passes against one of the worst secondary units in the NFL. Arizona has a matchup disadvantage at both starting cornerback positions in this one. Jalen Thompson and Budda Baker have both been mediocre in 2021. Indianapolis is surely going to hand the ball to Jonathan Taylor early and often today, but there is also potential for the Colts to exploit the Cardinals through the air in this one. Expect a strong day from Wentz.
Nick Chubb u85.5 Rushing Yards
PrizePicks: O/U 82.5 Yards
Few people would argue against Nick Chubb being one of the most talented running backs in the NFL. However, a banged-up offensive line, anemic passing attack, and poor game scripts have resulted in one of the worst stretches of Chubb’s career over the last three weeks. In two games against the Baltimore Ravens, Chubb totaled only 75 rushing yards on 25 attempts. On Monday against the Las Vegas Raiders, Chubb managed 91 yards on the ground in a close game, but relied on a 24-yard dash in the second half to account for a majority of that yardage. In a game that is likely to feature the Browns trailing, Chubb could see his opportunities on the ground capped. If there is one thing that Kevin Stefanski has loved to do this fall, it is to abandon the run when playing from behind. This is going to be a tough number for Chubb to hit today at Lambeau Field.
Aaron Jones o49.5 Rushing Yards
PrizePicks: O/U 45.5 Yards
Aaron Jones has settled into a running back committee during the latter half of this season with A.J. Dillon. Nevertheless, he is still averaging a healthy 4.4 yards-per-carry, and has seen at least 10 carries in four of Green Bay’s last six games. On Saturday, he should see plenty of work in a game script that is likely to favor the Packers running the ball. Last week against the Baltimore Ravens, Jones totaled 58 rushing yards on only 13 attempts. If Jones sees double-digit attempts again today, he should have little trouble hitting this number. Take the over here, with the best value being at PrizePicks if looking for a fun holiday player prop parlay.
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