Bengals vs. Browns Odds, Picks, and Prediction
Bengals vs. Browns Odds
| Bengals Odds | -3 |
| Browns Odds | +3 |
| Over/Under | 40 |
| Date | Monday, Oct. 31 |
| Time | 8:15 p.m. |
| TV | ESPN |
Week 8 of the NFL season will conclude on Monday Night Football, with the Cincinnati Bengals traveling to FirstEnergy Stadium to play the Cleveland Browns. In this AFC North battle, oddsmakers are expecting a tightly-contested affair, pricing the Bengals as 3.5-point road favorites on the spread.
Let’s take a deeper look at the matchup to see where NFL bettors can find value at sportsbooks in this contest.
Cincinnati Bengals
Following an 0-2 start to the new campaign, the Cincinnati Bengals have won four of their last five contests, including wins against the New York Jets, Miami Dolphins, New Orleans Saints, and Atlanta Falcons. In that span, Cincinnati’s only defeat came against the Baltimore Ravens on a last-second 43-yard field goal from Justin Tucker. Since Week 3, Cincinnati’s offense has performed exceptionally well, ranking 2nd in EPA/play overall. Their main point of strength has been through the air, ranking 1st in Dropback EPA/play compared to only 26th in Rush EPA/play. However, the passing attack could take a substantial hit with wide receiver Ja’Marr Chase being ruled out for this evening due to a hip injury. Through seven games, Chase commanded 27.7 percent of all targets through the air for Cincinnati, and led the team by healthy margins in receptions, receiving yards, targets, and touchdowns. It will be the first contest this season in which Joe Burrow will not have his top wideout available.
Across their last five games, the Bengals have been one of the better defensive teams in the entire NFL, ranking 7th in defensive EPA/play overall, 5th in Dropback EPA/play, and 23rd in Rush EPA/play. Despite strong overall numbers, the inability to slow down the ground game could be problematic tonight against a Cleveland offense that runs the ball as effectively as any team in the league. The continued absence of D.J. Reader on the defensive line for the Bengals is likely to be noticeable on Monday Night Football.
Cleveland Browns
The Browns were one incomprehensible collapse in Week 2 away from a 3-0 start to the year, but now find themselves 2-5 as the calendar prepares to flip to November. Far from being an embarrassment, Cleveland has only one loss by more than three points this fall – a Week 6 shellacking at the hands of Bill Belichick and the New England Patriots. In two divisional contests, the Browns beat the Pittsburgh Steelers 29-17 and lost to the Baltimore Ravens 23-20.
Offensively, Cleveland matches-up well with Cincinnati for this primetime affair. Through seven games, the Browns lead the NFL in Rush EPA/play by a wide margin, averaging 5.2 yards-per-carry and rushing for 12 touchdowns. Cleveland’s offense should be able to find success on the ground again in Week 8, facing a Bengals’ defense that ranks 22nd in Rush EPA/play since losing defensive lineman Reader to injury. If the Browns can take care of the football tonight, they could frequently find themselves in opponent territory and threatening to score.
The larger issue for this group is a defense that has proved inadequate in 2022. Since Week 4, the Browns rank 30th in defensive EPA/play overall, ranking 20th in Dropback EPA/play and 32nd in Rush EPA/play. Fortunately for this unit, the Bengals will be missing one of their most explosive skill position players, with Chase being on the sidelines. On top of that, Joe Mixon and the Cincinnati rushing attack rank 30th in yards-per-carry for the season. Cleveland could turn in a better defensive showing this evening than many people are expecting.
Bengals vs. Browns Picks & Predictions
The main strength of the Cincinnati offense is undeniably their passing attack, which leads the league in Dropback EPA/play since Week 3. It remains to be seen how much the absence of Ja’Marr Chase will impact this group, but it is safe to assume that there will be at least some regression. The strength of the Cleveland offense is unquestionably their ground attack, which ranks 3rd in the NFL in yards-per-carry this fall. The combination of Nick Chubb and Kareem Hunt figure to help move the chains consistently this evening, which should limit short non-scoring drives, and decrease the likelihood of quick scoring drives. The under is the smart lean in this spot.
PICK: Under 45.5 (-105 via DraftKings)
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