Browns vs. Bengals Odds, Picks, and Prediction
Browns vs. Bengals Odds
| Browns Odds | +5.5 |
| Bengals Odds | -5.5 |
| Over/Under | 46.5 |
| Date | Sun, Dec. 11 |
| Time | 1:00 p.m. |
| TV | CBS |
On Sunday, the Cleveland Browns will travel to the south end of the state to visit the Cincinnati Bengals at Paycor Stadium. Entering play, Cincinnati is tied with the Baltimore Ravens for first place in the AFC North division standings at 8-4. Cleveland trails both teams by three games in the loss column, with five games remaining on each team’s regular season schedule. When these two teams met in Week 8, the Browns dominated from start-to-finish in a 32-13 rout on Monday Night Football. In the rematch, oddsmakers are expecting the Bengals to get revenge, pricing Cincinnati as 5.5-point home favorites on the spread.
Let’s take a deeper look at the matchup to see where NFL bettors can find value at sportsbooks in this contest.
Cleveland Browns
Deshaun Watson’s return to the field in Week 13 resulted in a victory, but Watson’s performance left much to be desired. Per Pro Football Focus, Watson was 9-for-13 for 94 passing yards from a clean pocket, but only 3-for-9 for 37 passing yards when under pressure. These numbers provide support for the notion that Watson will need a number of game reps before we see him resemble anything remotely close to the production we saw during his impressive 2020 campaign. Even those who have never stepped foot inside of an NFL huddle can appreciate that game speed scenarios are impossible to replicate in practice, and a lack of first-team reps for Watson since the preseason only adds to the discrepancy in situations that his brain is used to seeing compared to what he experienced against the Houston Texans this past Sunday. In Week 14, Watson is unlikely to be saved by his backfield, considering the strong run-stoppers that Cincinnati has on the defensive line. Neither will Watson be saved by three defensive and special teams touchdowns, as he was against Houston. Cleveland’s offense has an extremely high ceiling long-term, but it could take a few weeks before expectations manifest in live game action for a quarterback who had not played in a regular season game in nearly two years.
Defensively, the Browns are still inadequate, despite the impressive performance they put together against the Texans. After 12 games, Cleveland ranks 29th in defensive EPA/play, including ranking 32nd in Rush EPA/play. Defensive tackles Jordan Elliott and Taven Bryan are at the root of Cleveland’s issues in the run game, with both players ranking 91st or worse at their position against the run in 2022, per Pro Football Focus. At this point in the campaign, it is clear that Elliott and Bryan are an unfixable problem – creating a massive vulnerability for this unit on a weekly basis. The Browns’ secondary unit will also be tested in this one, with arguably the most elite collection of wide receiver talent in the league lining up across from them. It could be a difficult day for Cleveland on this side of the ball.
Cincinnati Bengals
Following a slow start to the season, Cincinnati has been nothing short of elite since Week 3 – ranking 2nd in the NFL in offensive EPA/play. The Bengals have used a balanced approach in that span, ranking in the top-nine in both Dropback EPA/play and Rush EPA/play, to give their offense an element of unpredictability that has been them extremely difficult to defend. Throwing out an embarrassing Week 1 performance against the Pittsburgh Steelers, Joe Burrow has a sterling 23-to-4 touchdown-to-interception ratio, and has unquestionably been one of the game’s elite signal callers. Pass-blocking remains an issue for this unit, but this weakness may not be a major concern against a Cleveland pass-rush that ranks only 20th in sacks per pass attempt this fall.
Defensively, the Bengals are in a much better spot than they were before defensive tackle D.J. Reader returned to the field last week. From Week 1 to Week 3, with Reader on the field, the Bengals ranked 14th in Rush EPA/play and allowed only 258 rushing yards on 69 attempts (3.7 yards-per-carry). From Week 4 to Week 11, with Reader off of the field, Cincinnati’s defense ranked 27th in Rush EPA/play and allowed 913 rushing yards on 199 attempts (4.6 yards-per-carry). Since he returned to the field, Reader has helped the Bengals hold Derrick Henry to 38 rushing yards on 17 carries and Isiah Pacheco to 66 rushing yards on 14 carries. Though Cleveland has a reputation as one of the best running teams in the league, they rank only 22nd in offensive Rush EPA/play since losing center Ethan Pocic to injured reserve. The Bengals could have a strong afternoon on the defensive side of the ball.
Browns vs. Bengals – Picks & Predictions
The Cincinnati Bengals are undeniably an elite offensive team, and the return of running back Joe Mixon is only likely to help this group even more. However, it is doubtful that the Bengals will be able to hit the over by themselves in this spot. The return of Deshaun Watson was far from a success for the Cleveland Browns in Week 13 against the Houston Texans, casting major doubts as to what bettors should expect from this offense in Week 14 against Cincinnati. Further, Cleveland’s rushing attack has been worse than league average since losing center Ethan Pocic, making it unlikely that the Browns will be able to put an abundance of points on the board with their offense. Consequently, the under appears to be a good look in this spot – buy a point to get push potential on the key number of 47.
PICK: Under 47 (-124, DraftKings)
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