Guardians vs. Yankees, Game 2: Odds, Picks, and Prediction
Guardians vs. Yankees Odds
| Guardians Odds | +126 |
| Yankees Odds | -148 |
| Over/Under | 6.5 |
| Date | Friday, Oct. 14 |
| Time | 1:07 p.m. ET |
| TV | TBS |
On Friday afternoon, the Cleveland Guardians and the New York Yankees will battle in the Bronx in Game 2 of the American League Division Series. In the series opener on Tuesday, Cleveland jumped out to a 1-0 lead in the 3rd inning, but New York prevailed 4-1 after taking the lead in the 5th inning and adding a pair of insurance runs in the subsequent frame. In Game 2, Shane Bieber will get the ball for the Guardians, who will be opposed by Nestor Cortes. Oddsmakers are expecting the Yankees to take a commanding 2-0 series lead, pricing them as -148 home favorites on the money line.
Let’s take a deeper look at the matchup to see where MLB bettors can find value at sportsbooks for Game 2 of the American League Division Series.
Cleveland Guardians
Early in 2022, Shane Bieber looked as though he had regressed sharply – posting a 3.55 ERA, 3.06 FIP, and a 1.15 WHIP in his first 18 turns through the rotation. Following the All-Star break, Bieber’s velocity returned to early 2021 levels, and with that increased velocity came much better results. From July 29th until the end of the regular season, the talented right-hander had a 2.04 ERA, 2.64 FIP, and a 0.91 WHIP across 13 starts. In that span, he allowed two earned runs or fewer in 11-of-13 outings. If there is any concern for Bieber in this spot, it is that he ranked in only the 15th percentile in average exit velocity and the 14th percentile in HardHit% this summer. Mistakes against a hard-hitting New York lineup could be costly on Friday.
The Cleveland offense does not profile particularly well against Nestor Cortes. From September 1st until the end of the regular season, Cleveland’s offense ranked 20th in OPS, 30th in ISO, 29th in walk rate, 5th in strikeout percentage, and 30th in HardHit percentage against left-handed pitching. In that span, Jose Ramirez had only a .556 OPS and a .216 batting average against southpaws. The Guardians’ star third-baseman finished the campaign with a .729 OPS, .236 batting average, and a 97 wRC+ against lefties – three percent worse than the league average hitter.
If there is a path to a victory on Friday, and the path to the American League Championship Series, for the Guardians – it is in the late innings. Since the All-Star break, Cleveland’s arm barn ranks 1st in FIP, 2nd in WHIP, 2nd in strikeout percentage, 2nd in walk rate, and 5th in left-on-base percentage. If Manager Tito Francona can get a strong outing from Bieber in Game 2, he has all the weapons he will need to fight for an opportunity to tie-up this series before heading back to Cleveland this weekend.
New York Yankees
If there is any concern for Nestor Cortes in this matchup, it is due to the fact that he has not pitched in a Major League Baseball game since October 1st. Bettors do not have a large sample size to analyze pitcher statistics, who are taking the mound on nearly two weeks of non-injury related rest. Beyond the rust concern, Cortes appears poised for a strong outing in this one. Across his final 12 turns through the rotation, he had a 2.07 ERA, 2.50 FIP, 26.0 strikeout percentage, 6.5 percent walk rate, and a 0.79 WHIP. In that span, he allowed only a 4.0 percent barrel rate and a 29.5 HardHit percentage. In day games in 2022, Cortes was brilliant, with a 2.25 FIP, 35.4 strikeout percentage, 6.1 percent walk rate, and a 0.80 WHIP in 74.0 innings. At home this summer, Cortes delivered a 1.85 FIP, 37.1 strikeout percentage, 7.9 percent walk rate, and a 0.63 WHIP. The long lay-off is worth being mindful of in this situation, but nearly all of the data available in this situation suggests that Cortes should be able to limit the output of Cleveland’s bats on Friday afternoon.
Across the final 30 days of the regular season, the Bronx Bombers ranked 2nd in OPS, 2nd in ISO, 4th in walk rate, and 4th in HardHit percentage against right-handed pitching. In Game 2, they will be tasked with facing Bieber, one of the game’s premier starters. However, Bieber’s susceptibility to hard-contact makes him vulnerable against this powerful Yankees lineup. New York has been known for their inconsistency at the plate this year, but this is a good matchup on paper for this group.
If there is any concern for New York on Friday, it is their bullpen, which ranked 15th in FIP, 13th in WHIP, 20th in strikeout percentage, and 27th in walk rate after the All-Star break. In previous postseason runs, Manager Aaron Boone has had elite talent at his disposal, but still proved incapable of pulling the right string at the right time. His weapons are far more limited this October, especially against a high-contact Cleveland offense.
Guardians-Yankees Pick
The Cleveland Guardians have scored only four runs in 32 innings of offensive opportunities so far during this postseason. It is worth noting that Cleveland is incredibly young and inexperienced outside of a few key veterans on the roster. In Game 2, this group will have to contend with one of the best left-handed pitchers in baseball – a tall task for an offense that has struggled mightily against southpaws in 2022. The lack of power for the Cleveland offense could limit their scoring opportunities in the early portion of this contest. The New York Yankees could find some success against Bieber in this spot, which could propel them to an early lead. Expect the New York Yankees to get on the board against Bieber and to have a good opportunity to win this game if the bullpen can protect a late lead.
PICKS: Yankees ML (-135, Wynn)
Image Credit: Imagn