Browns vs. Commanders Odds, Picks, and Prediction
Browns vs. Commanders Odds
| Browns Odds | +2.5 |
| Packers Odds | -2.5 |
| Over/Under | 41 |
| Date | Sun, Jan. 1 |
| Time | 4:25 p.m. |
| TV | CBS |
On Sunday, football fans in northeast Ohio will not have to wait long to lock-in legal wagers on their Cleveland Browns when they travel to the nation’s capital to battle the Washington Commanders. Entering play, the Browns have been mathematically eliminated from the postseason, but the Commanders are still attempting to secure the final Wild Card position in the NFC. In this matchup, oddsmakers have Washington listed as 2.5-point home favorites on the spread.
Let’s take a deeper look at the matchup to see where NFL bettors can find value at sportsbooks in this contest.
Cleveland Browns
Watson still shaking off rust
It is readily apparent that Deshaun Watson still possesses elite arm talent, but it is also painfully obvious that he is still shaking off-rust from his long absence. In four games since returning to the field, Watson is 60-92 for 567 passing yards with a 2-to-1 touchdown-to-interception ratio from a clean pocket. However, he has struggled under pressure, completing only 11-of-31 pass attempts for 136 passing yards with zero touchdowns and two interceptions when under pressure, per Pro Football Focus. Even those who have never played an NFL snap can appreciate that no amount of simulated reps in practice can adequately prepare an individual for live game speed. Facing a Commanders’ defense that ranks 9th among all teams in sacks per pass attempt in 2022, Watson is likely to have another uncomfortable afternoon.
Chubb targeting rushing title
Per Mary Kay Cabot of Cleveland.com, there has been talk in the Cleveland locker room this week about helping Nick Chubb win the rushing title. Heading into Week 17, Chubb trails Derrick Henry by 86 yards for second place and finds himself 196 yards behind Josh Jacobs, who is the current leader.
From Week 1 to Week 10, with starting center Ethan Pocic healthy, Cleveland established the 2nd-best offensive rush EPA of any team in football. In Pocic’s absence from Week 11 to Week 15, the Browns regressed to 24th in rush EPA. In Pocic’s return to the field in Week 16, this offense ran for 124 yards against a frequently stacked box in frigid temperatures. Facing a Washington defense that ranks 12th in rush EPA since Week 6, there should be room to run on the ground this weekend for Chubb.
Run defense remains unreliable
Through their first 15 games, the Browns rank 26th in opponent yards-per-carry and 32nd in defensive rush EPA. Since their Week 9 bye, this unit has improved only slightly in this area, ranking 27th in rush EPA across their last seven games. Jordan Elliott and Taven Bryan have formed, arguably, the weakest interior defensive line in the entire league this fall, which has made it difficult for Cleveland to slow opponents on the ground in any capacity this year. If there is one area that the Browns have been much better, it has been in the secondary, where they rank 5th in dropback EPA since the beginning of November.
Key Injury News
Edge rusher Jadaveon Clowney is officially listed as questionable for this contest after practicing in a limited capacity on Friday. Per Pro Football Focus, Clowney ranks in the top-35 players at his position this year as both a run defender and as a pass-rusher. Last week, with him on the sidelines, the Browns failed to generate a single sack or quarterback hit against the New Orleans Saints.
Washington Commanders
Wentz back under center
In seven games played this fall, Carson Wentz has posted an 11-to-6 touchdown-to-interception ratio, ranking 31st in QBR among qualified signal callers. Per Pro Football Focus, Wentz ranks 46th among all quarterbacks in passing grade from a clean pocket and 34th when under pressure. On Sunday, expect a heavy dose of Brian Robinson Jr. on the ground to avoid putting too much responsibility in the hands of Wentz, who has been underwhelming this fall.
Elite defense of the nation’s capital
Since Week 6, only the New England Patriots, New York Jets, and San Francisco 49ers rank better in defensive EPA than the Commanders. In that stretch of action, Washington has allowed 21 points or fewer against the Chicago Bears, Green Bay Packers, Indianapolis Colts, Minnesota Vikings, Philadelphia Eagles, Houston Texans, and New York Giants (twice). Edge rusher Chase Young returned to the field in Week 16, batting a pass and making one tackle on a limited snap count. This weekend, Young, the formed #2 overall draft selection, will make his first start of 2022, which is only likely to help this defense improve even more.
Key Injury News
Cornerback Benjamin St-Juste and safety Kamren Curl are both listed as questionable heading into the weekend. Curl missed last weekend’s game against San Francisco, the first time since Week 4 that Washington has allowed more than 21 points in a game. After practicing in a limited capacity all week, there is optimism that the star defensive back will be able to suit-up this weekend.
Browns vs. Commanders – Picks & Predictions
The status of edge rusher Jadaveon Clowney and safety Kamren Curl are worth monitoring ahead of kickoff, but if both players are on the field, the under is a strong play in this spot. Deshaun Watson has struggled mightily when under pressure since returning to the field, and is likely to find life difficult again in Week 17 against a ferocious Washington pass-rush. From Week 1 to Week 6, with Carson Wentz under center, the Commanders ranked 28th in offensive EPA. Expect a low-scoring affair between these two teams if there are no stars missing on the defensive side of the ball.
PICK: Under 41 (-110, DraftKings)
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