2024 Cognizant Classic Odds: Golf Betting Preview & Breakdown

by Joe Cistaro (joeycis) Last Updated 2024-02-27 19:19:55

This week, Joe Cistaro breaks down PGA golf betting tips for the 2024 Cognizant Classic. You can use the PrizePicks referral code GRINDERS to claim a $100 deposit bonus on golf props today!

The PGA TOUR starts the Florida swing at PGA National with a new sponsor. Formerly known as the Honda Classic, this week’s tournament is now the Cognizant Classic. With the new sponsor comes a better field than years past as Rory McIlroy headlines the first leg in sunny Florida. The field includes several former champions and a pile of young talented golfers looking to break through. Let’s take a look at the field, the course, and some key players in the field.

The Cognizant Odds at DraftKings Sportsbook

At the time of this writing – February 26th – you can find these odds at DraftKings Sportsbook. The below list features all golfers priced at 50/1 or better.

Here are the recent winners of the Cognizant Classic — formerly the Honda Classic:

• 2023 – Chris Kirk (-14)
• 2022 – Sepp Straka (-10)
• 2021 – Matt Jones (-12)
• 2020 – Sungjae Im (-6)
• 2019 – Keith Mitchell (-9)
• 2018 – Justin Thomas (-8)
• 2017 – Rickie Fowler (-12)
• 2016 – Adam Scott (-9)

Rory McIlroy headlines the first tournament in Florida as a prohibitive favorite. A previous winner at the Honda Classic, McIlroy hasn’t played at PGA National since 2018. McIlroy is in great form and is the class of this field.

While Rory is a past winner, the field is filled with various previous winners. Chris Kirk is back to defend his championship. Sepp Straka is also back after outlasting Daniel Berger and Shane Lowry in 2022. Daniel Berger has a great track record in this course including the near victory in 2022. Further, Sungjae Im, Keith Mitchell, and Rickie Fowler will also play this week as previous winners.

Nineteen of the top 50 players in the OWGR will tee it up for the most competitive field at PGA National in years. Ahead of two big events, the Cognizant Classic offers an opportunity for players to take advantage before the fields get significantly tougher at Bay Hill and TPC Sawgrass.

2024 Cognizant Classic Betting Preview

• Course: PGA National
• Date: February 29 – March 3
• Par: 71
• Yardage: 7,147
• Greens: Bermuda

This week’s field might not be the strongest, but PGA National demands more than most courses. Easily one of the ten toughest courses on TOUR, the winning score will typically hover around double digits. A change to the course could make the winning score a bit better than those of previous years.

PGA National features fifteen holes that have water hazards in play. Water and winds are the primary defense for this course. Scrambling and avoiding bogeys must be considered when modeling for this event.

The infamous Bear Trap — holes 15, 16, 17 — are going to give players fits all weekend. The field is thousands of strokes over par at the Bear Trap since 2007, with more than 1,500 golf balls finding water. If your golfer is in play for a victory on Sunday, don’t get too excited until he has made it through #17.

The key proximity ranges for players at this course are 150 to 200 yards. Four Par 4s range from about 450 to 500 yards. Four of the Par 4s are immensely shorter with better birdie rates.

The tenth hole is now a Par 5. Previously one of the tougher holes on the course, the hole was lengthened by about 30 yards and will now likely be the third-best chance at birdie on the course. This could likely help scoring a bit for players and might improve the historic cut line number.

We will, of course, emphasize SG: Approach, driving distance, bogey avoidance, and scrambling. Further, we will consider the aforementioned proximity ranges as well as course history on the Florida Swing.

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Golfers To Watch This Week

Unless mentioned otherwise, all Strokes Gained statistics will be referenced over the player’s previous 24 rounds on the PGA TOUR.

Eric Cole +2800

I am not certain that I want to invest money at the top of the board this week. While Rory is capable of tearing this field apart, I can’t pay that price.

Further, Cameron Young and Russell Henley lack in the scrambling department. While both are just as good a ball striker as Rory, the short game is a concern at a course that demands a steady short game. Eric Cole, on the other hand, is very capable in the short game.

Cole nearly broke out with a victory last year at this event. The playoff loss kick-started a full calendar year’s worth of success for the mature rookie. His length off of the tee was not an issue last year and shouldn’t be this year. If we are going to buy a shorter price, Cole might be the start of our card.

Chris Kirk +4000

Kirk broke through with a big win at the Honda Classic last season for his first win in several years after returning to the TOUR. The emotional victory highlighted an excellent season on TOUR. Kirk started 2024 with a win at the Sentry and was playing well before a rough go at the Genesis. Losing several strokes on the green, Kirk will need to turn it around with the putter to defend his title this week.

Kirk gains on Bermuda and bentgrass greens while struggling on poa greens. He gained more than 5 strokes on the greens last season at PGA National and seems very comfortable on Florida greens. If he can get back on form, this 40-1 price tag is going to feel like a steal.

Doug Ghim +6000

Doug Ghim has never made the cut at PGA National.

Good sell job, right? Well, Ghim can often putt himself out of a tournament. Of late, Ghim has been playing exceptionally well, with three consecutive top-fifteen finishes. While Bermuda greens seem to give Ghim fits, he has a great history at TPC Sawgrass. The argument for Ghim seems to be recent form versus course history.

For me, the 60-1 price tag helps me lean toward recent form. Ghim’s ball-striking profile resembles a winning player on TOUR. He just needs to put enough together on and around the greens to match his approach play. He is not a consideration for one-and-done, but as a long shot outright, I think he might make sense.

Billy Horschel +8000

The Billy Horschel in Florida narrative is going to get some steam this week. Bermuda Billy has found great success in Florida. A couple of years ago, we would have stormed the sportsbook windows to buy Horschel at 80-1.

Last year, Horschel struggled on the Florida swing. In 2022 though, Horschel played well at the Honda and the Arnold Palmer Invitational. Bermuda greens are his best surface, and he has more rounds in Florida than most of the players in this field. His recent form is solid- certainly solid enough to consider at 80-1 this week.

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