College Football Grind Down: Late Slate

by Andy Smith (a25smith) Last Updated 2015-09-14 14:56:30

Each week, one of the best CFB DFS minds out there, Andy “a25smith” Smith, will break down the upcoming college football slate to help you narrow down the best targets.

This analysis should point you in the right direction as you set your CFB DFS lineups, but it is still up to you to decipher the information and make your own selections. Use this article to help you gain a better understanding of the matchups for the coming week and build from there.

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South Alabama Jaguars at Nebraska Cornhuskers – O/U 54

South Alabama

With a team total of just 13.5 points, South Alabama is a team you can pretty much just avoid. The one player I did give a look to was *Xavier Johnson * at minimum price on FD, as he had a huge season opener with two TDs and 177 total yards of offense. On first glance he looks like a potential sleeper on Fanduel at that price point. However, the problem is that those came on two big plays, and South Alabama was actually RBBC as he only had 8 touches. That’s not near enough volume for me and South Alabama should be trailing throughout so I’m not buying him even at his cheap asking price.

Nebraska

Nebraska lost a heart breaker in Mike Riley’s debut as they allowed a hail mary pass to BYU and lost on the final play of the game. They should be motivated to put that loss behind them and have a team total of above 40. This game is right on the border of a blowout so it’s somewhat tricky. As expected Nebraska was more balanced offensively in their opener and both Tommy Armstrong and Jordan Westerkamp came through with strong showings. They were RBBC in the opener as no RB topped 10 carries so for me it’s Armstrong or Westerkamp, and not much else.

We’re not getting the extreme discount that we got on Jordan Westerkamp last week, but I don’t have a problem going back to the well here. He was clearly Armstrong’s favorite target and put together a rock solid outing with 7 receptions for 107 yards and a TD. This is a good matchup and I’m expecting him to reach the end zone again this week. I also thought Tommy Armstrong, Jr. looked solid in the opener, and really loved his usage. He attempted 41 passes and had 9 carries (albeit for only 2 yards). He is a talented runner so I’d expect more rushing yards from him going forward, and if he continues to get 50 touches, he’s going to a solid target throughout the year. The primary concern with Armstrong is that his price is really elevated, and with this game bordering on a blowout can we get at least three quarters of playing time out of the Huskers’ offense. I don’t mind this QB/WR handcuff again, but think it is better deployed in GPPs.

Idaho Vandals at USC Trojans – O/U 66.5

Idaho

I’ll be fading Idaho in this one. I had a nice little write up about Dezmon Epps all typed out, as he was fantasy gold in the opener with 15 catches. Despite the blowout, I actually liked him as a GPP target due to the fact that he could rack up receptions against USC’s backups. That’s off the table now as the kid can’t seem to stay out of trouble and will not start this one due to his involvement in a shop lifting incident. Oddly enough that shop lifting incident occurred before the their season opener but they let him play. However, word of his involvement trickled down to the medie and Idaho needed to save face, which is why he’s getting punished now.

USC

This one will be blowout city, and the question is whether the Trojans offense can put in enough work to pay off their salaries before hitting the bench. USC’s team total of 55 looks appetizing but that spread of 43 is equally scary.

One thing to note is that Justin Davis, the backup USC RB, is expected to return for this one and is expected to see some playing time as the backup to Tre Madden, which could hurt Madden’s value. Despite the blowout factor in Week 1, I had a ton of Tre Madden in as was very cheap and his prime competition at RB, Justin Davis, was sitting out. He came through with two TDs before he hit the bench, and easily paid off his tag. It’s a different story this week as his price is up, Davis is expected to return, and the blowout factor still looms. That puts him in GPP only territory for me as I think there is safer volume to target and you need a lot more out of him this week to pay off his price point.

Cody Kessler and the USC passing attack should also have a field day here, and this boils down to your risk tolerance for blowouts. Both Kessler and JuJu Smith were on their way to big games in the opener, but due to the blowout, they didn’t really pay off their high salaries. I don’t mind them in GPPs, especially JuJu because he could get loose for some big gainers, but I’ll look for safer sources of volume for my cash games. I’d also be more inclined to roster JuJu on FD as the Tulsa game isn’t included there, whereas on DK, if I’m spending up at WR, I’m going for Keevan Lucas. The other potential option to know is USC’s 2nd WR Stephen Mitchell, who did score a TD in the opener, but given the blowout there are better options in my mind.

Florida International Golden Panthers at Indiana Hoosiers – O/U 56.5

*FIU&

Indiana looked great offensively in the opener, however they looked like the same old Indiana defense though as they allowed 47 points to Southern Illinois, including 400 passing yards and 5.4 YPC. FIU is a team I typically avoid offensively but based on this matchup and the Vegas spread, there could be some solid options here.

Jonnu Smith was a popular target at TE on the opening night of the CFB season, but he came through with a dud. Based on that performance as well as a tight salary cap, I’m expecting lower ownership here. TE in CFB can be hit or miss, but Smith did lead FIU in receiving last season, and this is a prime matchup.

I wouldn’t go overboard with FIU as this is still a questionable offense, but their QB, Alex McGough, and their RB, Alex Gardner, were both solid against UCF in the opener, which did surprise me. Gardner had 20 total touches and was involved in both the running and passing game, which is nice on DK, and he’s also still very cheap on FD at just $5,000. McGough registered 38 pass attempts, which is a solid number, and showed some progress from a bad freshman year. I’m still not sold on them as an offense so my exposure will still be fairly limited, but if there was a time to roster them it would be in this matchup.

Indiana

The Indiana offense once again carried the day for their team as Nate Sudfeld looked good in his return from last season’s season ending injury, and Jordan Howard, showed that the numbers he put up at UAB were not a fluke.

I was hoping Howard would get a little more of the workload as he had 20 carries compared to Devine Redding’s 16 carries, but that is being nit picky, as Howard got into the endzone 3 times and had 120 rushing yards. FIU locked down the UCF running game and they were solid last year as well allowing 3.95 YPC. While it’s not a prime matchup, they did struggle against the better RBs they faced last year, and I’m not sold on the UCF run game as quality. He’s not a at the top of my board, but Howard is still in play for me in both cash games and GPPs.

Nate Sudfeld took full advantage of his 32 attempts in the opener as he threw for 349 yards, but only had one TD pass. He ran for 46 yards in the opener, but his SEASON high for rushing yards in a season is 98 rushing yards so I definitely wouldn’t count on those rushing yards going forward. He’s a passing QB who doesn’t quite have the volume I like, so while he should have a solid game, he is down my list of options. I’d rather take a shot with one of his WRs, but the problem is that there is still some uncertainty there. Coming into the opener all the buzz surrounded Simmie Cobbs, but it was Ricky Jones who had the big game with six receptions for 186 yards and a TD. Both Cobbs and Jones are unproven, so it’s tough to know whether Jones is actually the true number WR and Cobbs was just hype, or whether Week 1 was just an anomaly and Cobbs is still the play. Most will gravitate towards Jones due to the game log and I don’t mind him for a tournament, but that should also leave Cobbs lower owned and he carries the cheaper price tag.

Rice Owls at Texas Longhorns – O/U 48.5

Rice

With the Horns struggling, Rice is expected to keep this one close. They have a solid dual threat QB in Driphus Jackson and two solid RB in Darik Dillard and Jowan Davis (who is questionable). I also think this Texas defense is a step down from last year’s unit. That being said Rice has just a team total of 17, so I’ll be staying away. The one possible $3 GPP dart throw would be Jackson on DK as a QB. He’s way to expensive on FD, but he is only $5,500 on DK. He’s a solid QB and he does have the ability to account for both of those projected Rice TDs, and finish with a stat line of say 160 passing yards, 50 rushing yards and two TDs. I’d rather take my shot with Lamar Jordan as my cheap QB though

Texas

It’s never a good sign when you’re changing play callers one week into the season, but that’s the situation that Texas finds themselves. On first glance, it appears to be an exploitable matchup for the Horns but their offense has been dreadful and there’s just too many moving parts to feel very confident here. I think you’ll likely see both Tyrone Swoopes and Jerod Heard get some time in this one, and the poor QB play takes the air out any WR options. After their loss to Notre Dame, Charlie Strong did mention that they needed to get the ball to Jonathan Gray so he’d be my top option from this one. I don’t have high hopes for Texas passing game so they’re going to have to get their running game going so I expect them to really try to jumpstart it in this one. I don’t think Gray has huge upside due to the limited Texas offense but could be in line for a 100 rushing yard day with a TD.

Oregon Ducks at Michigan State Spartans – O/U 65

Oregon

This is the game of the night and it should be a fun one to watch with a spread of just 3.5. That means that we won’t have to worry about the blowout factor, but the decision is whether to attack Oregon in a pace down game, on the road, against a defense that is traditionally very stingy. However, Michigan State had heavy losses in their secondary and in their linebacker corp, and it showed in the opener as Western Michigan threw for 365 yards and had two receivers top the 100 yard mark. They also struggled against fast pace attacks last year as Oregon scored 46 points, Ohio State scored 49, and Baylor put up 41. Oregon, Ohio State, and Baylor threw for a combined 1,100 yards and 11 TDs in those contests, so the Oregon passing game is very targetable here. The easy target is Vernon Adams, who was solid in his debut, and is sub $9,000 on both DK and FD. The tougher question is who to target at WR, if any, as Oregon is very deep and can spread the ball around. I’ll give the edge here to Byron Marshall as my top option as he carries a solid price point and will be involved in both the receiving and kick return game.

With Thomas Tyner out, Royce Freeman is going to be a fantasy monster this year, and he flashed in the opener with 180 yards and three TDS. The problem is that Michigan State returns three defensive lineman from one of the best rush defenses in the nation last year. On the plus side, Freeman will get plenty of work as this one should be close, and he’ll be their go to guy inside the 10. He had a solid game in this matchup last year with 13 carries for 89 yards and two TDs. I prefer him on FD, and thinks he’s better deployed as a GPP option than cash game.

Michigan State

This will be a pace up game for Michigan State as Oregon plays at a fast tempo, and will force Michigan State to keep on scoring offensively. Their primary offensive playmakers also come at solid price points as well. Connor Cook will be amped for this one as the senior returned to college to win big games like this in his home stadium. Michigan State will try to contain tempo here, but it remains to be seen whether they will be successful. Last year in this matchup, Cook ended up attempting 47 passes and threw for 343 yards. He’s a future NFL draft pick and Oregon also had widespread losses in their secondary and is very young. It showed in the opener as they were torched by Eastern Washington, and allowed 15 receptions and 246 receiving yards to Eastern Washington’s wide receiver Cooper Kupp. That puts Aaron Burbridge squarely on my radar, as he looked good in the opener and will be stepping into the number one receiving role this season. On FD a TE is required, and Josiah Price looks like the best combination of price, upside and matchup at the position.

I expect Michigan State’s game plan will be to control tempo here as they saw what happened last year when you get in a shootout with Oregon. That should mean a solid work load for the Michigan State running backs. Madre London is listed as the first string RB and scored two TDS in the opener, but he did split carries with L. J. Scott as both had 13 carries. The workload is a little concerning me as this could be more a RBBC than previously thought. I’ll get some exposure to him in GPPs as he should be the number option, but I’m looking elsewhere for cash games.

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