Indianapolis Colts vs. Arizona Cardinals Odds, Preview, Picks, and Prediction
Colts vs. Cardinals Odds
| Colts Odds | +2.5 |
| Cardinals Odds | -2.5 |
| Over/Under | 49 |
| Date | Saturday, Dec. 25 |
| Time | 8:15 p.m. ET |
| TV | NFL Network |
The Indianapolis Colts and the Arizona Cardinals will engage in battle during the nightcap of this year’s NFL Christmas day action, with kickoff taking place at 8:15 p.m. EST at State Farm Stadium. The Colts have won seven of their last nine contests to position themselves firmly within the AFC playoff picture as the regular season approaches its conclusion. Indianapolis’ only three losses since September have been an overtime defeat to the Baltimore Ravens, an overtime loss to the Tennessee Titans and a one score loss to the Tampa Bay Buccaneers.
The Cardinals have been far more volatile of late, suffering a 24 point loss to the reeling Carolina Panthers and an 18 point loss to the Detroit Lions in their last five games. Following a 7-0 start to the campaign, the Cardinals are only 3-4 in their last seven trips to the field, which has taken them out of the top seed in the NFC playoff picture entering Week 16. Oddsmakers are anticipating a tightly-contested affair between these two likely playoff teams, pricing the Cardinals as a small favorite on the spread.
Colts +1
Even the most fierce Carson Wentz critics have to admit that the veteran signal caller has played excellent football in 2021. Wentz ranks 10th in the NFL in passing touchdowns, fourth in interceptions, and sixth in QBR through 14 games this season. Since the beginning of October, Wentz has a 20-to-5 touchdown-to-interception ratio. Only once in that span has he taken more than two sacks, meaning that he is making quick reads and smart decisions with the ball in his hands. The Colts have also benefited from rostering the best running back in the league, Jonathan Taylor, who leads the NFL in rushing yards, attempts, and touchdowns. Taylor has eight 100-yard rushing games in his last 11 trips to the field. He could be in for another big day on Saturday, playing against an Arizona defense that is allowing 4.6 yards-per-carry on the ground in 2021.
On the defensive side of the ball, Indianapolis remains vulnerable in the secondary. Yet, this unit could do worse than allowing 7.1 yards-per-attempt through the air, which ranks 16th in the league. The Colts are not especially strong against the run either, allowing 4.5 yards-per-carry on the ground, but this unit has shown signs of improvement in recent weeks. Against a strong New England
Patriots running attack in Week 15, the Colts allowed only 81 rushing yards on 19 carries. Indianapolis will look to carry that positive momentum into their holiday matchup against Arizona.
Cardinals -1
The Cardinals will be looking to establish positive momentum after suffering back-to-back losses to the Los Angeles Rams and Detroit Lions in recent weeks. Fortunately for this group, they still boast one of the most dynamic offensive attacks in the entire league. Per Pro Football Focus, Kyler Murray has graded as the 7th best quarterback in 2021. Murray is helped by a strong cast of pass-catchers, including Christian Kirk, Rondale Moore, A.J. Green, and Zach Ertz. Even if the offensive line remains of slight concern, this is a group that is more than capable of putting points on the board in a hurry–even against some of the better defenses in the NFL. The absence of DeAndre Hopkins is certainly felt on this roster, but getting one of the more talented offenses in the NFL at a pick’em price could be a market overreaction to a couple of underwhelming performances earlier this month.
Arizona’s defense struggled mightily last week against the Lions, but they are capable of much better in Week 16. Byron Murphy and Marco Wilson continue to be a disaster in the secondary, but Jalen Thompson and Budda Baker are serviceable options at safety, each of whom should be able to limit big plays in this one. Expect some positive regression to the mean for this defense in Week 16.
Christmas Night Pick & Prediction
If bettors have learned one thing in the NFL this season, it is that there is a tremendous amount of variance week-to-week. The Cardinals were run off of the field by the inferior Lions last Sunday, but they should not automatically be discounted in this matchup based on that fact alone. As of this writing, over 90 percent of the money is on the Colts, but the Cardinals remain a small favorite at sportsbooks. Make it a small play, but the smart wager is on Kyler Murray and the Cardinals on Christmas.
PICK: Cardinals -2.5 (-110)
Image Credit: Imagn