Primetime Parlay: Commanders vs. Bears Same Game Parlay Picks and Props
Throughout the 2022 NFL season, this article will use ScoresAndOdds’ ParlayIQ tool to examine building same game parlays across various sports betting sites for primetime NFL matchups. We will examine stats, roster news, trends, player props and betting odds across sportsbooks to pick the most profitable combination of outcomes for primetime games. Now let’s build our Commanders vs. Bears same-game parlay for Thursday Night Football.
Happy Thursday, Grinders! Well, sort of… Amazon Prime and the NFL continue to test how far they can go with a primetime game and still obtain good ratings. The Washington Commanders travel to Soldier Field to take on the Chicago Bears. Al Michaels will find it difficult to keep his quips to himself as two of the least inspiring teams meet to start Week 6. For us, we are testing our ability to entertain ourselves by creating a same game parlay ticket. Despite the lack of punch this game offers, there is always money to be made. We start with a preview of the game ahead of scripting our ticket.
Commanders vs. Bears Same Game Parlay Preview
FanDuel Sportsbook offers the Washington Commanders as one-point favorites on the road this evening with a 37.5-point implied total. This game has yo-yoed, since opening with Washington at -1, back and forth between the two sides as tiny favorites. Per SAO, more than 60% of money and bets side with Chicago this evening.
The total opened north of 40 points and continues to fall. FanDuel’s price on the over is -115, at the time of this writing, suggesting there might be a chance we get back to 38 before kickoff. 84% of money bet on this total has fallen under the number. Bettors and all people with eyeballs agree — this game is going to be ugly.
As for the injury report, Jahan Dotson and Logan Thomas are out and Dyami Brown is questionable. Last week, Brian Robinson returned and received more carries than battery-mate Antonio Gibson. Carson Wentz is off the injury report and seems good to go for this evening. For the Bears, the team comes into the game relatively healthy with no notable injuries to monitor prior to kickoff.
37.5 points is such a low number and I still want to take the under. Let’s see what ParlayIQ and our simulations think about this game before we plant our flag.
Commanders-Bears Same Game Parlay Picks
Washington Commanders Moneyline
So, we lead this week with a selection that ParlayIQ is not terrible in love with. Apparently, the public isn’t fond of this choice based on the aforementioned betting breakdown. With that said, I don’t know how the Washington Commanders don’t get the job done, tonight.
The front four of the Washington defense is by far the best unit in this game. Washington continues to stymy rushing attacks. The Bears sit fifth in the NFL with rushing attempts per game (32). The Bears continue to make it blatantly obvious that they have little interest in letting Justin Fields throw the football.
Washington continues to let Carson Wentz throw the football despite concerns they should have. Wentz continues to be a turnover-in-waiting but that said, I just can’t fathom the Bears being able to move the ball against the Washington defense. Chicago will need to successfully throw the football. We haven’t seen much of that. Book the Bears for me. We are now behind the eight ball as our simulations prefer the Chicago side.
Justin Fields Over 39.5 Rushing Yards
We will need to work hard to find props that agree with our simulations but negatively correlate with the moneyline outcome. Our simulations put Justin Fields getting over this prop at a coin flip. As a standalone bet, I think we might want to stay away, but correlating this with the Washington ML could give us just the boost we need to make up some ground in EV terms.
Fields has three consecutive games with more than 40 yards on the ground. Against this Washington front, I can see Fields escaping the pocket and looking to use his legs often. We will include Fields’ legs and catch up a bit with the sims.
Khalil Herbert Under 26.5 Rushing Yards
Continuing with legs, we look for an under on the Chicago side. ParlayIQ boasts 70% of simulations with Khalil Herbert staying under 26.5 rushing yards. Barring a big play, I agree.
Herbert immediately went back to backup status when David Montgomery returned last week and only saw four rushing attempts. Despite all of the explosiveness on display in Montgomery’s absence, the Bears seem more content to give the ball to their veteran for 2-3 yards per carry. I don’t see it but I suppose for our purposes, we want the Bears’ coaching staff to keep up.
The 26.5 number might be a bit inflated based on his performances over the last couple of weeks. Yet, with how few plays will be run in this game and how often Montgomery is going to touch the ball, Herbert staying below this line feels logical.
David Montgomery Over 15.5 Receiving Yards
Finally, we arrive at the finale for our gross same game parlay ticket. David Montgomery will be the feature back and is coming off of a game where he converted four targets for four catches and 62 yards.
Montgomery has been over this number in two of his three games where he played the full game. In these games, he has 4, 2, and 4 targets. Against the Washington front, we might see dump-off passes as well as designed screens to keep the Washington front on its toes. If Washington is ahead in this game, at some point, we think, the Bears will need to throw the ball. If the pass rush is humming, some of those passes will be directed at the running back.
I don’t feel great about this parlay but that is more of a commentary on this game in general. The simulations tend to back up our script so we will just trust and watch. Well, we might watch. We’ll see.
TNF Same Game Parlay Review
- Washington ML
- Justin Fields Over 39.5 Rushing Yards
- Khalil Herbert Under 26.5 Rushing Yards
- David Montgomery Over 15.5 Receiving Yards
Lock in Joe’s Pick in 1 Click
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So, ParlayIQ suggest the following price when putting these legs into a one game parlay”
On FanDuel Sportsbook, we see a bit of a boost to that number:
Lock in Joe’s Pick in 1 Click
PLACE THIS BET ON Parlay Price: +1323
Risk: 1/2 unit to win 6.61 units
Good luck with all of your bets and plays this evening. Share your parlays with me on Twitter and any other plays you are making for the game. First touchdown scorers? Touchdowns? DFS lineups? Thanks for reading.
Image Credit: Imagn