Conference Championship Week Odds and Best Bets
The college football regular season is over, conference championship week is upon us, and the College Football Playoff is right around the corner. Let’s look at conference championship odds and find some matchups that present contrarian value. If you are new to using a contrarian approach for sports betting then give yourself a primer by reviewing our first edition posted 10 weeks ago.
As a refresher, the three steps we use for choosing contrarian sides to play are:
1. The public is heavy on one side of the game
2. The betting volume is high
3. The line stays at or reverses from the opening number (a good indicator of sharp money)
Looking at no. 3; you will need to continue to monitor line movement for a game you are interested in playing. Just because a line has exhibited reverse line movement doesn’t always mean it will always stay below the opening number. The public can be responsible for inflating the number back up after sharp money has hit. We always need to pay attention to line movement to get the best number possible.
The conference championship games give an exceptional opportunity for contrarian betting due to the limited number of games. Only having ten games on the board for Friday and Saturday will result in all games being high in both betting volume and recreational money. As a result of these factors, a contrarian betting approach will offer value this weekend. For example, if we were to ignore line movement completely, and instead only focus on teams receiving 49% or less of the betting tickets, then our record would be 50-37-3 over the last 15 seasons. If we focus on the more lopsided games and only take teams receiving 40% or less, then our record would improve to 28-18-1. Oddsmakers know there will be an influx of recreational money this weekend, and the lines will be shaded to reflect this, thus creating value to fade the public.
For more general college football betting tips, check out RotoGrinders college football betting guide.
College Football Conference Championship Odds
- Oregon vs. Utah -6.5, O/U 46.5
- Baylor vs. Oklahoma -9, O/U 64
- Georgia vs. LSU -7, O/U 55
- Virginia vs. Clemson -28.5, O/U 55.5
- Wisconsin vs. Ohio State -16.5, O/U 56.5
Conference Championship Best Bets
Baylor vs. Oklahoma (12:00 p.m. ET, AT&T Stadium, Arlington, TX)
Three weeks ago in Waco, OU recorded their biggest comeback in school history, defeating the Baylor Bears 34-31 after trailing by 21 points at halftime. After the game, OU quarterback Jalen Hurts said, “My ball security sucks. I’m gonna fix it”. Hurt’s ball security didn’t improve the next week against TCU, he fumbled the ball in TCU territory in the 2nd half and threw a pick six in the 4th quarter. However, Hurt’s finished the season with a masterclass performance at Stillwater against Oklahoma State, with three total touchdowns and zero turnovers. When Oklahoma avoids turnovers, they are scary good. Baylor found this out the hard way during the 2nd half, giving up 24 points and being shut down offensively scoring no points of their own. Oklahoma’s defense has vastly improved, as well. This year under new defensive coordinator Alex Grinch, the Sooners rank 22nd in total yards allowed per game. Just last year, OU was a measly 105th in the nation defensively. Currently, 63% of bets are coming in on Baylor. The line opened at OU -9 and currently sits at that same number. There has been some small movement during the week and instances of reverse line movement in favor of OU. Assuming Jalen Hurts can protect the ball, I see no reason why OU doesn’t cover easily here on a neutral field.
The Pick: Oklahoma -9
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Georgia vs. LSU (4:00 p.m. ET, Mercedes-Benz Stadium, Atlanta, GA)
LSU has completely changed their philosophy this season with an offense-first approach, and so far, it has worked great, putting them in prime position to make the college football playoffs. However, things could get tricky when they take on Georgia in the SEC conference championship. Teams that win SEC title games and college football playoff games for that matter are stacked defensively. Georgia ranks 4th defensively in the nation, allowing 17 or fewer points in regulation all season. They will be taking on an LSU team that is 1st in the country offensively, averaging over 550 yards per game. It will be a great battle of offense vs. defense and could play out like the Auburn game that finished 23-20 earlier this season. Auburn’s defense is similar to Georgia’s in that they don’t rely solely on pressuring and sacking the quarterback. Instead, they shut down explosive plays and disrupt offensive schemes. Currently, 71% of bets are coming in on LSU, yet the line has remained stagnant at 7. While Georgia may not have the offensive power to win this game outright, they have a defense that can keep this game ugly and within 7 points.
The Pick: Georgia +7
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Conference Championship Week Betting Card
- Oklahoma -9
- Georgia +7
Image Credit: USA Today Sports Images