NFL DFS Showdown Lineup Optimizer Values: Cowboys-49ers DraftKings Picks
NFL Showdown season continues with the Cowboys vs. 49ers on Sunday Night Football. Our expert analysts are breaking down Draftkings Showdown picks with our in-house NFL DFS lineup optimizer. Sign up for RotoGrinders Premium for full access to our NFL lineup optimizer and fantasy football projections all season long.
As a 49ers fan, I can’t wait to watch this game, as it’s the first real test this offense has faced so far, and it will be an excellent barometer to see just how good each of these teams are. Both offenses have been fantastic through four games (outside of DAL Week 3), and both defenses are at the top or near the top in almost every statistic, so it will be a true test of which defense can figure out how to slow down offenses full of top weapons at every position. On the injury front, the Cowboys will be without Hendershot again, while the 49ers will be without Mitchell again, but Jennings is back and has no injury designation. Deebo Samuel came in to last week very iffy with knee and rib injuries and was completely ineffective on his 3 touches, but still played 87% of the snaps. He has no injury designation but likely still isn’t fully 100% healthy, but he should be out there giving it his all, and I wouldn’t be surprised if he gutted out a strong line knowing how big this game is.
NFL DFS Showdown Picks: Cowboys at 49ers Week 5
Currently, this game is sitting at a 45 total, with the 49ers favored by 3.5 points. With both teams having projected totals under 25, it really is a testament as to just how good both defenses are, as the Cowboys have scored 30+ points in all but one game, and the 49ers have scored 30+ points in all four games. Being at home with the current MVP for all skill players in Christian McCaffrey makes the Niners worthy 3.5 point favorites. Still, if Samuel is in any way limited like he was last week physically, and the Cowboys can put up some early points, I wouldn’t be surprised if this game came down to the final play.
Quarterback
Dak Prescott and Brock Purdy are the 4th and 5th priciest players from this game, and against top defenses I’m not too excited about either in cash games. The 49ers have been much worse against the pass than the run, so Dak does have some upside if you’re set on using him, while the Cowboys have been much better against the pass than the run, allowing the second-lowest pass yards/game at just 148, putting Purdy’s upside as more of a GPP target.
Running Back
Christian McCaffrey is in a tier of his own this year for RB production, and is by far my favorite player for cash games and the top option for the captain spot. He is completely matchup-proof with his ability to beat you through the air or on the ground, and should be looking at another massive workload if Mitchell remains out and this game stays competitive all the way to the end.
Tony Pollard is the second priciest option on this slate, and against a 49ers run defense allowing just 66 rush yards/game, I likely won’t be using him on my main build. Pollard has been the victim of poor game scripts in three blowouts so far and hasn’t scored a TD since Week 1, but he should easily see 20+ touches this game and be more involved through the air and makes for an elite GPP play at likely much lower ownership than McCaffrey and the Dallas passing game options.
Wide Receiver
If the Cowboys are to stay competitive in this game, it will likely be because CeeDee Lamb has a big game, and after CMC he is easily my favorite play in cash games. The Niners have been average against the pass allowing 218.3 pass yards/game, so DAL’s best chance to move the chains and create big plays will be to give Lamb at least 10-15 targets, and I don’t want to fade someone with his ability in my main build. Cooks ($5,600) and Gallup ($4,600) are both great values to include on Prescott stacks in GPPs, and if you are set on using one in cash games I’d go with the cheaper Gallup.
Deebo Samuel is a risky play given his health concerns, so for now, I’m just considering him as a GPP play, as I can’t risk taking a .6 FP game like he had last week in cash games. Brandon Aiyuk ($8,400) is the best 49ers WR to target as he’s healthy and seeing 6+ targets a game, including a couple of deep shots per game. He is still facing an extremely tough Dallas pass defense making him by no means a must-play in cash games, but I would include him on almost every GPP lineup that includes Purdy, along with using him as a bring back on Cowboys heavy tournament lineups.
Tight End
With three blowouts so far this year, Kittle hasn’t been needed much on offense, but he did remind us of his immense upside in Week 3 against the Giants, where he put up a 7-90-0 line on 9 targets. At just $6,400, he is one of my favorite p/$ skill players for cash games, as he is much more likely to have a ceiling game than a floor game with Deebo, not 100% healthy in a likely very competitive game.
Jake Ferguson has been great the last three weeks, scoring at least 9.8 FP in each game, and he’s seen 7 targets in three of four games this year. This production is also coming in blowout games where his true upside hasn’t been shown yet, so against a defense that is attackable through the air, Ferguson makes for an excellent cash game value target who legitimately could see 10+ targets with multiple TDs.
Defense / Special Teams
After hyping up both of these DSTs I’d consider them both cash game viable, especially since they are both at $4k or less in salary. It’s scarier taking any DST against McCaffrey, so I’ll give the slight lean to the 49ers defense if you’re set on using one in cash games or have the salary remaining to fit either in a final flex spot. Moody and Aubrey are both around $4,300, and I am fine with using either in cash games to fill another flex spot for cheap.
Sunday Night Football NFL DFS Strategy
I think a lot of optimal builds will be 3-3 stacks with either CMC or Lamb in the captain spot. I’d expect at least one, if not both, kickers to be needed for value to fit CMC in the captain spot, while Ferguson should be one of the higher-owned skill players at $5k in any type of lineup build.
DraftKings DFS Showdown Rankings
1. Christian McCaffrey – Must play in all formats and my favorite captain target.
2. CeeDee Lamb – Highest upside player in the Dallas passing game, which is the best way for offenses to beat this 49ers D.
3. Jake Ferguson – Way too cheap at $5,000, another great way to get exposure to the DAL passing game, and my favorite p/$ value play for cash games.
4. George Kittle / Brandon Aiyuk – I’d use at least one of them on most lineups assuming Samuel isn’t 100% healthy, and I would definitely use at least one of them on any GPP teams that don’t include CMC.
5. Jake Moody / Brandon Aubrey – I like using at least one of them on most lineups to help fit in CMC and/or Lamb, and I’m currently targeting both for cash game value.
NFL DFS Lineup Optimizer for Sunday Night Football
Check out LineupHQ for this Showdown slate! It’s your one-stop shop for all of the tools you need to build and edit multiple lineups with one click, such as excluding certain players, adjusting your ownership and stack preferences, and doing any mass late-swap edits.