Dallas Cowboys vs. Miami Dolphins Prediction: Is Charlie Wright?
Is Charlie Wright? explores one NFL bet each week based on a major decision point. Ideally, this article will lay out a case for the bet in a thorough manner, giving the reader the opportunity to either agree with the perspective and tail the bet or disagree with the breakdown and fade the pick.
Was Charlie Wright? (CHI +3)
We pushed! The first time this season — felt about right. Chicago squandered a double-digit lead in the 4th quarter yet again, but it’s not like they played that well. Some brutal Joe Flacco interceptions gifted them the lead, and their offense couldn’t extend it.
I split the props for the millionth time. Desmond Ridder didn’t threaten his passing yards total and lost his job in the process — easy win. Puka Nacua came close, but the game script got away from him. He kept the streak of 7+ targets going, yet turned them into only 50 yards.
Records after Week 15
- Charlie: 9-5-1
- Prop Picks: 17-13
Week 16 Pick: Miami ML (-116 on FanDuel)
Reason: Dallas is a different team on the road.
Teams are typically better at home and worse on the road, but the splits for the Cowboys are overwhelming.
Dallas at Home
- 39.9 points per game (1st), 431.7 yards per game (3rd), 15.4 points allowed per game (3rd)
Dallas on the Road
- 21.7 points per game (15th), 304.6 yards per game (21st), 22.3 points allowed per game (13th)
The Cowboys are 3-4 straight up and ATS on the road. They’ve been outscored by an average of 19.33 points per game as a road underdog. Dallas hasn’t won outright as an underdog since October 2022.
Now, the road losses have come against three good teams, plus the Cardinals. Losing to the 49ers, Eagles, and Bills in their own buildings isn’t shocking. But the Dolphins belong in that mix, especially at home.
Miami is 2nd in scoring and 1st in yards per game at home. They’re 6-1 straight up and 5-2 ATS in Miami, with their disgusting Week 14 collapse against Tennessee representing the only real blemish. The Miami defense has allowed the 6th-fewest points at home, compared to the 7th-most on the road.
A healthy Tyreek Hill will certainly go a long way here, and he seems likely to return this week. It’s a tough spot for a Dallas squad that can’t seem to figure it out away from AT&T Stadium.
PICK: Miami ML (-116 on FanDuel)
NFL Player Props for Week 16
Tee Higgins Over 57.5 Receiving Yards (-120 on BetMGM)
Higgins should lead the Cincinnati receiving corps, with Ja’Marr Chase likely ruled out this week. It’s a solid matchup against a Pittsburgh team, allowing the 4th-most yards per reception to wide receivers. The volume hasn’t been huge for Higgins since he returned from injury, but he’s averaging a healthy 18.8 yards per reception. A boost in targets with Chase sidelined should lead to a productive day.
Javonte Williams Under 55.5 Rushing Yards (-115 on Fanatics Sportsbook)
The opportunities have been there for Williams, as Denver finally unleashed him as their lead back midway through the season. Williams failed to top 15 carries through Week 7, but he’s averaged 17 attempts per game since then. Unfortunately, they’ve gone nowhere. He’s posted a paltry 3.40 yards per carry in that stretch, averaging 57.9 yards per game. Now, he gets one of the most imposing rush defenses in the league. New England has allowed the 2nd-fewest rushing yards per game and the 2nd-lowest yards per carry to running backs.
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