Daily Batter Breakdown: Mon, July 21st

by Jon Schiller (Varncass) Last Updated 2014-07-21 16:57:51

Welcome to the Daily Batter Breakdown. Each day, with at least 8 games on the night slate, I’ll breakdown some of the best top tier hitters to target based on matchup. The biggest split taken into account will be left/right, but each player card will also show park factors, player salaries and then a description of why I’ll be targeting him. Be sure to check out the FAQ for more information on specific stats.

We’re back in Coors tonight so I am sure there will be a ton of Nationals and Rockies played with the over/under set at 10.5 in that game and the moneyline fairly even. Fortunately there are a few other good options and some poor pitchers on the hill which will mitigate a bit of the owned % of those Coors Field players.

		Miguel Montero
		Daily Breakdown			Avg	OPS	HR%	wOBA
		Left/Right Splits			0.299	0.873	4.46%	0.378
		Last 7 Days Splits			0.429	1.071	0.00%	0.469
		Opp SP vs. LR			Avg	OPS	HR%	wOBA
		Verlander – RIGHT			0.240	0.669	9.20%	0.301
PARK-1	PARK-LR	FD	DS	DD	DK	FF	SS	FTD
0.974	0.970	$3,200		$8,700	$3,900	$74,000	$6,600	$8,250

Miguel Montero

It’s safe to say that Verlander has struggled this year, and while he used to be a guy to completely avoid, he looks like a decent pitcher to target now with how bad his WHIP is this year, hanging around a 1.46. The Tigers play in Chase Field tonight which is going to be a little bit different for them, and Verlander will have to hit as well. I like Montero for these reasons and especially because he is always in play against a right hander. His .873 OPS against righties is almost double what he hits against lefties and 10 of his 11 homers come off of righties. I don’t think he will be highly owned and I think he has a shot at a nice game.

		Victor Martinez
		Daily Breakdown			Avg	OPS	HR%	wOBA
		Left/Right Splits			0.395	1.196	8.64%	0.508
		Last 7 Days Splits			0.167	0.333	0.00%	0.149
		Opp SP vs. LR			Avg	OPS	HR%	wOBA
		Nuno – LEFT			0.271	0.794	6.43%	0.347
PARK-1	PARK-LR	FD	DS	DD	DK	FF	SS	FTD
0.974	1.044	$4,400		$9,950	$4,600	$94,400	$8,800	$10,650

Victor Martinez

You will have to pay up for Martinez today but I think he will be well worth it. The main thing is to look and make sure he will be in the lineup because with no DH, he’s going to have to play first which the Tigers have noted they are going to try to do to keep his bat in the lineup. Nuno has allowed an .841 OPS to right handers this year with 14 HR in 272 at bats and Martinez has obliterated lefties this year with a 1.196 OPS an 7 HR in 81 at bats. This looks like a great spot for the Tigers bats tonight.

		Anthony Rendon
		Daily Breakdown			Avg	OPS	HR%	wOBA
		Left/Right Splits			0.358	0.972	3.70%	0.421
		Last 7 Days Splits			0.286	0.643	0.00%	0.282
		Opp SP vs. LR			Avg	OPS	HR%	wOBA
		Morales – LEFT			0.297	0.901	12.10%	0.398
PARK-1	PARK-LR	FD	DS	DD	DK	FF	SS	FTD
1.273	1.146	$4,000		$8,750	$4,600	$95,900	$9,000	$9,450

Anthony Rendon

Morales’ numbers are just a bit worse than Verlander’s this year, posting a 1.52 WHIP which kind of puts in perspective how bad Verlander has been. Morales has allowed a .972 OPS to righties and 14 HR in 244 at bats which isn’t a small sample. Rendon on the other side, does his work against lefties with a .960 OPS, and is hitting in Coors tonight. I am expecting him to be one of the highest owned players as he should hit at the top of the lineup.

		Ryan Zimmerman
		Daily Breakdown			Avg	OPS	HR%	wOBA
		Left/Right Splits			0.278	0.802	0.00%	0.350
		Last 7 Days Splits			0.455	1.235	9.09%	0.506
		Opp SP vs. LR			Avg	OPS	HR%	wOBA
		Morales – LEFT			0.297	0.901	12.10%	0.398
PARK-1	PARK-LR	FD	DS	DD	DK	FF	SS	FTD
1.273	1.146	$3,500		$9,850	$4,800	$93,800	$7,600	$10,050

Ryan Zimmerman

Zimmerman doesn’t have a reputation of destroying left handers, but he has hit them very well in his career even though he hasn’t really faced a lot them. He gets a prime opportunity against Morales who I noted above is horrible against right handers while Zimm is swinging a hot bat. Even better, he gets to hit in Coors tonight and should be a popular hitter in all games.

		Asdrubal Cabrera
		Daily Breakdown			Avg	OPS	HR%	wOBA
		Left/Right Splits			0.239	0.674	1.83%	0.295
		Last 7 Days Splits			0.214	0.643	7.14%	0.279
		Opp SP vs. LR			Avg	OPS	HR%	wOBA
		Johnson – LEFT			0.314	0.810	22.22%	0.388
PARK-1	PARK-LR	FD	DS	DD	DK	FF	SS	FTD
1.020	1.026	$2,800		$8,100	$4,500	$72,600	$6,200	$8,250

Asdrubal Cabrera

Kris Johnson has had 2 starts in the majors, and while he held the Dodgers to 0 ER, neither start was particularly good at all, especially on the WHIP field which is over 2 right now. Neither start was good against right handers and I think that means good things for the switch hitting Cabrera. There aren’t many righties in the Indians lineup but Cabrera is one, and although he’s hit right handers better this year I think he can do some damage against Johnson.

		Jacoby Ellsbury
		Daily Breakdown			Avg	OPS	HR%	wOBA
		Left/Right Splits			0.258	0.669	1.38%	0.299
		Last 7 Days Splits			0.200	0.7	10.00%	0.301
		Opp SP vs. LR			Avg	OPS	HR%	wOBA
		Mikolas – RIGHT			0.333	1.011	10.00%	0.432
PARK-1	PARK-LR	FD	DS	DD	DK	FF	SS	FTD
1.087	1.040	$3,700		$9,900	$4,600	$94,000	$8,300	$10,000

Jacoby Ellsbury

Mikolas has been pretty bad this year in his 3 starts with an ERA over 10 and an OPS given up to righties of 1.011 and to lefties of .810. Small samples, yes, but he just hasn’t been very good in major league play and Vegas has the Yankees as huge favorites tonight. The over under is currently set at 9.5 for this game. I love Ellsbury tonight who has torn up right handers in his career, steals well against them and will be hitting near the top of the lineup.

		Jose Bautista
		Daily Breakdown			Avg	OPS	HR%	wOBA
		Left/Right Splits			0.277	0.872	4.26%	0.383
		Last 7 Days Splits			0.200	0.533	0.00%	0.225
		Opp SP vs. LR			Avg	OPS	HR%	wOBA
		Lackey – RIGHT			0.271	0.748	4.55%	0.330
PARK-1	PARK-LR	FD	DS	DD	DK	FF	SS	FTD
1.118	1.060	$3,500		$10,450	$5,000	$73,000	$8,700	$10,450

Jose Bautista

Lackey has really struggled lately allowing 6 homers in his last 4 games and posting a really sad WHIP. He stays true to his reverse splits this year where he’s struggled against right handers more than left, so Jose Bautista has a really solid shot to homer in the Rogers Centre tonight. Bautista would rather hit against a lefty, but doesn’t mind a guy like Lackey on the mound especially at home where homers are really prevalent. Bautista’s price has dropped especially on FanDuel where he is ridiculously cheap.

		Mike Trout
		Daily Breakdown			Avg	OPS	HR%	wOBA
		Left/Right Splits			0.307	0.965	5.33%	0.409
		Last 7 Days Splits			0.375	1.099	0.00%	0.469
		Opp SP vs. LR			Avg	OPS	HR%	wOBA
		Norris – RIGHT			0.239	0.627	7.24%	0.291
PARK-1	PARK-LR	FD	DS	DD	DK	FF	SS	FTD
0.968	1.066	$5,400		$14,400	$6,100	$115,000	$10,900	$14,550

Mike Trout

Norris is back off the DL and his first start didn’t go so well, surrendering 5 ER. In this one, he has to face the red-hot Angels and baseball’s best player. The Angels are scoring runs very well right now and part of that is due to Trout who isn’t stealing the bases but he is hitting both sites above a 1.000 OPS. Norris has struggled a bit with right handers this year and could have some issues with Trout in Angel Stadium.

		Trevor Plouffe
		Daily Breakdown			Avg	OPS	HR%	wOBA
		Left/Right Splits			0.233	0.684	1.37%	0.304
		Last 7 Days Splits			0.385	1.308	7.69%	0.554
		Opp SP vs. LR			Avg	OPS	HR%	wOBA
		House – LEFT			0.317	0.865	7.21%	0.390
PARK-1	PARK-LR	FD	DS	DD	DK	FF	SS	FTD
1.020	1.026	$2,800		$8,750	$4,200	$80,100	$5,000	$8,700

Trevor Plouffe

I’m kind of disappointed in the production out of Plouffe this year, but I still do like him as a very cheap option in this game. He’s shown some signs of a solid swing in the last week out of the all-star break and has had some really solid seasons against left handed pitching which is who most of his power comes off of. House has really struggled against right handed pitching giving up a .865 OPS, and while he hasn’t been terrible this year, he hasn’t been good either.

		Carlos Gonzalez
		Daily Breakdown			Avg	OPS	HR%	wOBA
		Left/Right Splits			0.244	0.763	4.58%	0.331
		Last 7 Days Splits			0.167	0.731	8.33%	0.315
		Opp SP vs. LR			Avg	OPS	HR%	wOBA
		Fister – RIGHT			0.268	0.688	4.78%	0.310
PARK-1	PARK-LR	FD	DS	DD	DK	FF	SS	FTD
1.273	1.042	$3,700		$10,650	$4,800	$64,700	$8,200	$10,100

Carlos Gonzalez

Gonzalez is back and looking to improve on the disappointing season he’s had so far. He’s a little underpriced on this Monday, and is hitting in Coors which all of the Rockies love. If I had to pick one Rockie tonight it would be CarGo as Fister has struggled a bit against lefties this year. I am not super high on the Rockies however, as Fister has been fairly solid this year although his recent propensity to allow the fly ball is a bit concerning.