Daily Batter Breakdown: Tue, May 27th

by Jon Schiller (Varncass) Last Updated 2014-05-27 19:54:39

Welcome to the Daily Batter Breakdown. Each day, with at least 8 games on the night slate, I’ll breakdown some of the best top tier hitters to target based on matchup. The biggest split taken into account will be left/right, but each player card will also show park factors, player salaries and then a description of why I’ll be targeting him. Be sure to check out the FAQ for more information on specific stats.

Pretty solid schedule for a Tuesday night with a lot of huge tournaments in the industry. I am especially excited for the WSOP sponsorship with DraftKings and you can win your first seat tonight. Make sure obviously to check weather and lineups, but I shall try to get this out earlier to help everyone out.

		Jason Castro
		Daily Breakdown			Avg	OPS	HR%	wOBA
		Left/Right Splits			0.209	0.736	5.45%	0.323
		Last 7 Days Splits			0.259	0.583	0.00%	0.251
		Opp SP vs. LR			Avg	OPS	HR%	wOBA
		Guthrie – RIGHT			0.265	0.830	4.46%	0.362
PARK-1	PARK-LR	FD	DS	DD	DK	FF	SS	FTD
1.082	1.014	$3,000	$5,009	$6,300	$3,900	$64,300	$5,400	$7,800

Jason Castro

Castro has improved in a small sample against left handed pitching this year but his numbers from last year are still bad. He’s definitely got a lot more pop against right handed pitching and it really helps that Jeremy Guthrie has been absolutely terrible against left handed hitters. Castro is one of the better values of the night and with a few power lefty bats in the Astros lineup they could make for a sneaky contrarian stack tonight against Guthrie.

		Paul Goldschmidt
		Daily Breakdown			Avg	OPS	HR%	wOBA
		Left/Right Splits			0.353	0.910	0.00%	0.385
		Last 7 Days Splits			0.208	0.573	0.00%	0.252
		Opp SP vs. LR			Avg	OPS	HR%	wOBA
		Stults – LEFT			0.333	0.885	4.79%	0.386
PARK-1	PARK-LR	FD	DS	DD	DK	FF	SS	FTD
0.974	1.044	$4,100	$9,924	$10,850	$5,200	$92,100	$8,200	$11,200

Paul Goldschmidt

Lots of good options on the board at first base today but I really like Goldy. I think he’s fallen a bit under the radar with the huge games by Encarnacion and Davis recently and while they both have solid matchups, Goldschmidt has a great one too against Eric Stults. Goldy has raked against left handed pitching and while he’s still working on his first HR against left handed pitching his career numbers show that he’s a great start against Stults. Stults has allowed 7 HR and an .887 OPS to lefties and this game has the highest over/under on the board today.

		Jedd Gyorko
		Daily Breakdown			Avg	OPS	HR%	wOBA
		Left/Right Splits			0.167	0.486	0.00%	0.224
		Last 7 Days Splits			0.273	0.636	0.00%	0.278
		Opp SP vs. LR			Avg	OPS	HR%	wOBA
		Miley – LEFT			0.261	0.778	8.77%	0.341
PARK-1	PARK-LR	FD	DS	DD	DK	FF	SS	FTD
0.974	1.044	$2,400	$3,063	$7,750	$3,700	$49,300	$5,300	$6,000

Jedd Gyorko

Gyorko has been really cheap on sites like Draftstreet lately and while he hasn’t been doing well all season he’s been putting some better swings on the ball and getting better results. The highest over/under on the board today goes to this game and my dislike for Wade Miley rears it’s head again. The Padres have been scoring a little bit more lately and Gyorko could be a real nice budget option today. He crushed lefties last year and Miley has been worse against righties in his career.

		Evan Longoria
		Daily Breakdown			Avg	OPS	HR%	wOBA
		Left/Right Splits			0.250	0.717	0.00%	0.317
		Last 7 Days Splits			0.321	0.773	3.57%	0.343
		Opp SP vs. LR			Avg	OPS	HR%	wOBA
		Buehrle – LEFT			0.257	0.650	6.70%	0.290
PARK-1	PARK-LR	FD	DS	DD	DK	FF	SS	FTD
1.118	1.060	$3,600	$4,801	$10,150	$4,500	$63,200	$7,400	$10,900

Evan Longoria

Has Longoria finally got it together again at the plate? He’s got multiple hits in 3 of the last 4 games and has been doing a much better job of swinging the bat in the past weekend. Buehrle has been solid this year but Longo has nice numbers against him in his career, in addition, Longo has absolutely raked against left handed pitching his entire career. I like his being in the Rogers Centre tonight which should yield a lot of homers. Longo is extremely cheap for what his ability is so take this opportunity to grab him at a low price point.

		Jean Segura
		Daily Breakdown			Avg	OPS	HR%	wOBA
		Left/Right Splits			0.125	0.378	0.00%	0.188
		Last 7 Days Splits			0.300	0.656	0.00%	0.294
		Opp SP vs. LR			Avg	OPS	HR%	wOBA
		Chen – LEFT			0.273	0.714	4.27%	0.314
PARK-1	PARK-LR	FD	DS	DD	DK	FF	SS	FTD
1.110	1.037	$2,900	$5,815	$9,200	$3,900	$61,400	$7,100	$6,600

Jean Segura

Now that Segura has been hitting leadoff he’s got multi hit games in 4 of 5 games and has been scoring runs and stealing bases as well. He doesn’t really have the ISO but he still makes a great option on a site like DraftKings that doesn’t take away for outs. Chen has been better against right handed hitting this year but still has poor career numbers against them. Segura is generally better against right handers but I still like him in the spot as the Brewers will load this lineup up with righties and Chen may have an issue in Miller Park tonight.

		Ryan Braun
		Daily Breakdown			Avg	OPS	HR%	wOBA
		Left/Right Splits			0.250	0.652	2.78%	0.281
		Last 7 Days Splits			0.292	0.875	4.17%	0.374
		Opp SP vs. LR			Avg	OPS	HR%	wOBA
		Chen – LEFT			0.273	0.714	4.27%	0.314
PARK-1	PARK-LR	FD	DS	DD	DK	FF	SS	FTD
1.110	1.037	$4,300	$7,887	$12,350	$5,500	$83,000	$8,900	$10,800

Ryan Braun

As noted above, Chen has had trouble getting right handers out on his career and Braun makes a solid play here tonight. His price on some sites is really a bargain and he has the ability for the 2 or 3 homer game. Braun rakes against left handed pitching and should be a great option tonight to go deep against Chen who has struggled a bit this year.

		Allen Craig
		Daily Breakdown			Avg	OPS	HR%	wOBA
		Left/Right Splits			0.211	0.564	1.41%	0.259
		Last 7 Days Splits			0.375	0.881	0.00%	0.399
		Opp SP vs. LR			Avg	OPS	HR%	wOBA
		Phelps – RIGHT			0.301	0.798	6.59%	0.361
PARK-1	PARK-LR	FD	DS	DD	DK	FF	SS	FTD
0.892	0.939	$2,800	$5,798	$9,850	$4,400	$74,900	$7,400	$8,200

Allen Craig

Craig has been getting it together lately and while his price is rising he still is a great value. An interesting dynamic for this game is how poor Phelps has been against right handers this season allowing a .820 OPS an a .301 batting average. Craig usually hits better against lefties but still has solid numbers in his career against both sides. The over/under for this game is set at 8 which is fairly high for tonight and I think the Cardinals are able to do some damage at home.

		A.J. Pollock
		Daily Breakdown			Avg	OPS	HR%	wOBA
		Left/Right Splits			0.212	0.750	6.06%	0.319
		Last 7 Days Splits			0.125	0.292	0.00%	0.128
		Opp SP vs. LR			Avg	OPS	HR%	wOBA
		Stults – LEFT			0.333	0.885	4.79%	0.386
PARK-1	PARK-LR	FD	DS	DD	DK	FF	SS	FTD
0.974	1.044	$3,500	$7,354	$7,450	$3,700	$58,000	$5,300	$8,100

A.J. Pollock

Pollock makes a solid play as well tonight against Stults as he should be hitting closer to the top of the lineup than usual. Stults has problems with right handed batters as noted above should let in some runs tonight in the highest over under game. Pollock’s numbers are great this year and while he only has a .750 OPS against lefties this year I think he still makes a solid play for the price tonight.

		Alex Gordon
		Daily Breakdown			Avg	OPS	HR%	wOBA
		Left/Right Splits			0.286	0.763	1.59%	0.339
		Last 7 Days Splits			0.286	0.75	0.00%	0.366
		Opp SP vs. LR			Avg	OPS	HR%	wOBA
		McHugh – RIGHT			0.183	0.480	6.74%	0.226
PARK-1	PARK-LR	FD	DS	DD	DK	FF	SS	FTD
1.082	1.014	$3,000	$6,508	$10,350	$4,500	$90,300	$6,700	$8,400

Alex Gordon

McHugh has been great against lefties this year but it’s much different than his 1.225 OPS he allowed previously in his career. The real number is probably somewhere in the middle so I’m not too worried about how solid he’s been against lefties this year. You really never know how he’s going to perform and although he has been striking out a lot of people Vegas still doesn’t believe in him and has the Royals pegged for a decent game today. Gordon has been solid lately and should be able to take advantage of McHugh today.

		Edwin Encarnacion
		Daily Breakdown			Avg	OPS	HR%	wOBA
		Left/Right Splits			0.253	0.872	6.85%	0.378
		Last 7 Days Splits			0.320	1.266	20.00%	0.537
		Opp SP vs. LR			Avg	OPS	HR%	wOBA
		Cobb – RIGHT			0.194	0.501	11.63%	0.256
PARK-1	PARK-LR	FD	DS	DD	DK	FF	SS	FTD
1.118	1.060	$4,700	$9,126	$13,150	$5,100	$107,700	$8,700	$12,500

Edwin Encarnacion

EE has been absolutely crushing everything in sight lately and is now starting another homer streak with one in each of the last 2 games. Cobb has been extremely solid this year and doesn’t appear to be missing a beat after coming off the DL, however this Blue Jays offense is pretty intense especially at home in the Rogers Centre. It’s easy for homers to fly out so any mistake to EE today could end up in one leaving the park.