Daily Fantasy D/ST: Week 11
Defense? Yes, we are talking about defense. Everyone’s favorite DFS position (other than kicker on some sites of course), where we all scroll to the bottom of the draft list and find the cheapest defense that has a decent matchup. Welcome to the weekly defense/special teams column where I will try to highlight some of the top defense/special teams plays for the week. I know defense tends to be an afterthought for some as they can be very boom or bust, but when you look at the final standings of these top heavy GPPs, often the choice at defense can be the difference in A LOT of money.
Defenses can make a huge difference in GPPs, but even in cash games, you do not want to spot your opponent points at any position by making “lazy” choices. You can certainly go cheap at defense many weeks, but I also think there are weeks where paying up for a top defense in the right matchup is the best play, especially in cash games. Defense and special team touchdowns can be unpredictable, but I also think you can put yourself in good situations to capitalize on those opportunities.
Week 10 2016 Recap
NOTE: The numbers below reflect an average of defensive fantasy points from the start of the 2014 season through Week 10 2016. Top plays and secondary plays only started in Week 7 2016 as a way to breakout defense that fit the criteria into two separate categories.
All Defenses that Fit the Criteria: 8.76
Top Plays (Defense that Fit the Criteria): 9.67
Secondary Plays (Defense that Fit the Criteria): 6.86
Other Defenses to Target: 8.13
All Favorites: 8.12
All Home Teams: 7.27
All Teams: 6.86
Week 10 was a below average week for the defenses that fit the criteria. The produced a meager 4, 6, and 6 points last week. The biggest disappointment was the Arizona Cardinals, who I would play again in that spot every single time. In this instance though, they only produced four fantasy points. The only saving grace was line moves that removed the Jets and Patriots from the picks, or it could have been an even worse week.
The other defense to target was the strongest play of the week as the Rams produced ten fantasy points. They also came at a bargain bin price on DraftKings. I wish I would have ended up with more shares of them instead of a majority of shares in the Cardinals. I just did not need the cost savings very often.
Defenses that Fit the Criteria
(At Home, Favored and Opponent Team Total of 21 points or less)
Top Plays
Kansas City Chiefs ($5,000 FD, $3,400 DK)
Opponent: Tampa Bay at Home
Spread: -7
Team Total: 18.75
Fantasy Pts Allowed: 7.67 (11th highest)
The Chiefs have been a very good defense option this season as they lead the league in forcing turnovers, have forced multiple turnovers in five straight games, and have posted double digit fantasy points in five straight games. This week they face a Tampa Bay offense that has allowed the 11th most fantasy points to opposing defenses. While Tampa has racked up some yards and points this season, they have turned the ball over 15 times and have allowed 22 sacks. Jameis Winston has seven turnovers in four road games this season. Vegas also have the Bucs listed with one of the lowest team totals of the week. The Chiefs defense is rolling right now, playing at home, and favored by more than a touchdown. They are my favorite cash game and GPP play this week.
New York Giants ($4,700 FD, $3,500 DK)
Opponent: Chicago at Home
Spread: -7
Team Total: 17.25
Fantasy Pts Allowed: 8.77 (7th highest)
The Giants are another defense that has been pretty solid lately with seven turnovers and eight sacks in their last three games. Overall, they are in the top half of the league in both total defense and scoring defense. This week they face a Bears offense that is reeling. The Bears are currently giving up just under nine fantasy points to opposing defenses, which is the 7th highest in the NFL. The Bears are currently 31st in the NFL in scoring offense, with only the Rams being worse. They also just lost their best playmaker, Alshon Jeffery, for the next several weeks. The Giants are probably not a cash game play, but I like them in GPPs. The Bucs showed the upside the Bears provide last week when they racked up 24 fantasy points against this Bears offense.
EDIT: Bears team total has dropped about 2 points due to the wind in New York. I’d put the Giants defense on par with KC today as the top choice.
Secondary Options
Seattle Seahawks ($5,200 FD, $3,800 DK)
Opponent: Philadelphia at Home
Spread: -6.5
Team Total: 18.25
Fantasy Pts Allowed: 5.11 (25th highest)
I have seen a lot of spots rank the Seahawks as the top defense this week. While I think they do provide some safety considering they typically play so well at home, rank second in the NFL in scoring defense, and rank tied for second in sacks, I am not sure they provide the upside we are looking for in GPPs this week. The Seahawks currently rank in the bottom third of the league with only ten takeaways on the season. Their opponent this week, the Philadelphia Eagles, have also been fairly stingy to opposing defenses, giving up just over five points per game, which ranks 25th in the NFL in points given up to opposing defenses. The Eagles have been pretty good at limiting sacks and have only turned it over ten times this season.
Dallas Cowboys ($4,500 FD, $2,600 DK)
Opponent: Baltimore at Home
Spread: -7
Team Total: 18.75
Fantasy Pts Allowed: 7.33 (14th highest)
The Cowboys defense has not been great from a fantasy point perspective this year, but they do rank 12th in total defense and eighth in scoring defense, which are both above average. They just have not produced a ton of sacks or turnovers so far. Their opponent this week, Baltimore, has turned the ball over 14 times and has allowed 22 sacks on the season. They also rank in the bottom third of the league in total offense and scoring offense. The Cowboys do not really excite me this week, but they are big favorites at home, which typically provide them with a nice floor. The thing I like best about them is their price on DraftKings, which is only $2600. I think they are very usable there for GPPs and even cash games if you need the savings.
Detroit Lions ($4,600 FD, $3,200 DK)
Opponent: Jacksonville at Home
Spread: -6
Team Total: 20.75
Fantasy Pts Allowed: 7.89 (9th highest)
The Lions defense has been fairly mediocre this season, ranking around the middle of the pack in both total defense and scoring defense. But during the last three weeks before their week 10 bye, they did hold opponents to an average of 17.7 points scored. Their opponent this week is the Jacksonville Jaguars who rank 27th in scoring offense and is giving up the third most turnovers in the NFL with 19. They have only had two games this year where they have not turned the ball over. I do not love the Lions here, but they are big favorites at home, and they are playing a team that has been pretty favorable to opposing defenses. The Lions are a contrarian GPP option this week.
EDIT TO ADD: Please note that the Raiders look to fit the criteria this week but they are playing their “home” game in Mexico City. Since this is not a true home game, I am removing them from fitting the criteria.
Other Defense to Target
Miami Dolphins ($4,800 FD, $2,900 DK)
Opponent: St Louis on Road
Fantasy Pts Allowed: 10.56 (2nd highest in NFL)
With the Jets on a bye this week, the next best team to pick on is the Los Angeles Rams. The Rams rank second to last in total offense and last in scoring offense with just over 15 points per game. The Rams have also given up 23 sacks and turned the ball over 14 times. The interesting thing here is that the Rams are FINALLY starting Jared Goff at QB this week. While I do not believe he can be worse than Keenum, this will be his first NFL start. This is a situation we usually like to target. The Dolphins defense has also come on strong the last two weeks since their bye, putting up 30 total fantasy points in those two weeks. The Dolphins are one of my favorite GPP plays this week, especially at their price on DraftKings.