Daily Fantasy D/ST: Week 6
Defense? Yes, we are talking about defense. Everyone’s favorite DFS position (other than kicker on some sites of course), where we all scroll to the bottom of the draft list and find the cheapest defense that has a decent matchup. Welcome to the weekly defense/special teams column where I will try to highlight some of the top defense/special teams plays for the week. I know defense tends to be an afterthought for some as they can be very boom or bust, but when you look at the final standings of these top heavy GPPs, often the choice at defense can be the difference in A LOT of money.
Defenses can make a huge difference in GPPs, but even in cash games, you do not want to spot your opponent points at any position by making “lazy” choices. You can certainly go cheap at defense many weeks, but I also think there are weeks where paying up for a top defense in the right matchup is the best play. Defense and special team touchdowns can be unpredictable, but I think you can certainly put yourself in good situations to capitalize on those opportunities.
After all the happenings last week with “DFS Scandal” posted everywhere, it was nice to just sit down and watch a lot of football this past weekend, enjoy the games, and sweat some DFS action. Week 6 presents a new dilemma for me as I am going to be away for the entire weekend for a wedding, and will only have access to the internet/site apps via my phone. My wife also wants to turn this into a mini vacation so I can’t spend hours Sunday morning finalizing lineups and looking at last minute news. This situation is always tough for me as the NFL season is only 16 weeks (plus playoffs) long. It’s really hard to take a week off. Therefore, I am going to play, but the question is, how much? Do I play my normal volume and hope I don’t get caught on any last minute news? Do I scale back my volume and just take some shots at GPP’s? It will likely depend on how much I like my lineups this week (and whether there are a lot of outstanding injury concerns). But how does everyone else handle situations like this? Feel free to add your thoughts in the comment section below.
Week 5 Recap
NOTE: The numbers below reflect a running average from 2014 through 2015 Week 5:
Defense that Fit the Criteria: 9.49
Other Defenses to Target: 7.38
All Favorites: 8.60
All Home Teams: 7.53
All Teams: 7.18
Week 5 Top Scoring Defenses: Green Bay (23 pts), Denver (22 pts), Tampa (15 pts)
The defenses that fit the criteria had another up and down week with two teams reaching double digits, one team posting a mediocre 7 points, and then two defenses that posted 3 points or fewer. The best hit of the week was the Tampa Bay Bucs defense that came in at a bargain bin price this past week. The Bucs defense did give up a lot of yards and 31 points scored, but they were able to force two turnovers (one of which was returned for a TD) and six sacks. The Chiefs also produced double-digit points behind a defensive score. The Bengals were a little disappointing to me producing a mediocre 7 fantasy points. They were able to get four sacks against the Seahawks poor offensive line, but were only able to force one turnover. The two misses of the week were the Ravens and Giants. I think it’s time to give up on the Ravens as a viable defensive play. This isn’t the Ravens defense of the past.
The best play of the week was my own pick which was the Denver Broncos. I think it’s starting to become apparent that the Broncos defense is the best in the NFL, and just about matchup proof for DFS purposes. The defense produced another three turnovers and four sacks, and one of the turnovers turned into a defensive score. The Broncos are 5-0 entirely on the backs of their defense, as Peyton Manning and the offense have been awful. I think it is going to be tough to not highlight the Broncos in this column for the foreseeable future.
Defenses that Fit the Criteria (-3 or greater, at home, O/U of 45 or less)
Seattle Seahawks ($5000 FD, $3800 DK) vs Carolina – Seattle are seven-point favorites with a total of 41. Overall, the Seahawks defense has not been as dominant as the past few seasons, but they have been very strong at home. They have only allowed 3 offensive points scored in two home games, and are still one of the best defenses in the NFL. Carolina has been pretty stingy so far in terms of not allowing turnovers, but they have a very weak group of WR’s and lack much of a running game. I expect this game to be a defensive struggle and I can’t see the Panthers scoring a lot of points in Seattle. Seattle may not have the highest upside here, but I expect them to be a solid, safe option that may be under-owned if everyone is on Denver at the same price point.
New York Jets ($4800 FD, $3100 DK) vs Washington – New York are 5.5-point favorites with a total of 40.5. The Jets defense has been very good this year. They are allowing a league-best 13.8 points per game, while ranking eighth against the run and second against the pass. They also get Sheldon Richardson back from suspension this week which can only make their run defense better. The Redskins offense has been able to move the ball, but they are only tied for 25th in the NFL in points per game. They’ve also turned the ball over nine times in five weeks. I think this should be another low scoring game and I don’t expect the Redskins offense to have much success. I really like the Jets price on DraftKings where they come in at a $600-700 discount from the Broncos and Seahawks.
Minnesota Vikings ($4500 FD, $2900 DK) vs Kansas City – Minnesota are 3.5-point favorites with a total of 44. The Vikings defense has also been pretty solid this year, limiting opponents to 18.3 points per game, which is sixth-best in the NFL. They also have forced eight turnovers and have eight sacks through four games this season. This week they face a Kansas City offense that just lost its best player for the season. After Charles went out against a bad Bears defense this past Sunday, the Chiefs went even more conservative and managed only 52 yards of offense and no points in almost two quarters. If Alex Smith is forced to throw more than the Chiefs would like (especially without Charles to check down to), I think there could be some opportunities for turnovers this week. The Vikings make a fine mid/lower priced option this week in my opinion.
Detroit Lions ($4300 FD, $2500 DK) vs Chicago – Detroit are three-point favorites with a total of 43.5. The best bargain bin option of the week appears to be the Detroit Lions. The biggest thing working against the Lions defense so far this season has been the anemic play of their offense. The Lions offense has given the ball away an astounding 15 times in five games, which has continued to put their defense in a hole. That being said, the defense has forced nine turnovers themselves. They face a Bears offense that ranks 28th in the NFL in points per game and 27th in total yards. They’ve also turned the ball over seven times and have given up at least 11 fantasy points to defenses over the last four weeks. If you are looking for that cost savings at defense this week, I think the Lions present some upside in this matchup. Heck, I’ll even go out on a limb and predict that they get their first win of the season.
Other Defense to Target
Denver Broncos ($5000 FD, $3700 DK) at Cleveland – As I mentioned above, I am going to have a hard time not including the Broncos in this column going forward regardless of matchup until they give me a reason not to. The Broncos are first in total defense and second in points allowed per game. They have forced a league-best 14 turnovers and have 12 sacks on the season. Their matchup this week against Cleveland is certainly not a bad one. Cleveland has moved the ball and scored points better this season, but they have allowed 18 sacks, which is third-worst in the NFL. They’ve also turned the ball over eight times so far. I think you can again fire up the Broncos in cash games and GPP’s. I will likely continue to try to fit them in my cash game lineups whenever possible, and have shares of them across my GPP lineups.