Daily Fantasy D/ST: Week 8
Defense? Yes, we are talking about defense. Everyone’s favorite DFS position (other than kicker on some sites of course), where we all scroll to the bottom of the draft list and find the cheapest defense that has a decent matchup. Welcome to the weekly defense/special teams column where I will try to highlight some of the top defense/special teams plays for the week. I know defense tends to be an afterthought for some as they can be very boom or bust, but when you look at the final standings of these top heavy GPPs, often the choice at defense can be the difference in A LOT of money.
Defenses can make a huge difference in GPPs, but even in cash games, you do not want to spot your opponent points at any position by making “lazy” choices. You can certainly go cheap at defense many weeks, but I also think there are weeks where paying up for a top defense in the right matchup is the best play, especially in cash games. Defense and special team touchdowns can be unpredictable, but I also think you can put yourself in good situations to capitalize on those opportunities.
We are almost halfway through the season where it certainly seems like the chalk plays have been pretty strong so far. Or maybe I am just having selective memory where Week Seven saw almost all the chalk plays at RB and WR put up strong fantasy games. But when it comes to defense, I think the chalk plays have been solid, but it has really been the more contrarian teams that have propelled individuals to the top of the standings. In this column, I will continue to try to provide both chalkier, cash plays but also hopefully some more under the radar GPP plays.
Week 7 2016 Recap
NOTE: The numbers below reflect an average of defensive fantasy points from the start of the 2014 season through Week 7 2016. Top plays and secondary plays only started in Week 7 2016 as a way to breakout defense that fit the criteria into two separate categories.
All Defenses that Fit the Criteria: 8.81
Top Plays (Defense that Fit the Criteria): 8.50
Secondary Plays (Defense that Fit the Criteria): 9.00
Other Defenses to Target: 8.38
All Favorites: 8.23
All Home Teams: 7.32
All Teams: 6.92
The defenses that fit the criteria had a solid but unspectacular week. All three teams finished with 8 or 9 fantasy points in Week Seven. Only seven teams reached double digits on the week. The defense that fit the criteria again finished with an average score higher than favorites, all home teams, and all teams.
The other defense to target had one hit and one miss. The Ravens put up the second highest fantasy point total of the week with 17 as we continue to target defenses facing the Jets. The Patriots, who were very popular against Landry Jones, put up the one clunker with only four fantasy points.
Defenses that Fit the Criteria (At Home, Favored and Opponent Team Total of 21 points or less)
Top Play:
Denver Broncos ($5000 FD, $3800 DK)
Opponent: San Diego at Home
Spread: -3.5
Team Total: 20,0
Fantasy Pts Allowed: 7.14 (15th highest)
If you are spending up at defense this week, I think there are two clear options in the Denver Broncos and a team we will get to the “Other Defenses to Target” section, although that team is not available on the main slate anyways. The Broncos are again a top defense ranking third in total defense, sixth in scoring defense, first in sacks, and fourth in takeaways. Their opponent this week is the San Diego Chargers, who do only rank 15th in terms of fantasy points allowed. But if you look closer, they have turned the ball over the third most times in the NFL with 15 turnovers in 7 games. They have been fortunate that only one of those has resulted in a TD the other way. They have been a team that has scored an average of 28 points per game, but just two weeks ago, in San Diego, they had their lowest point total of the season of 21 against this Denver team. Denver was able to force two turnovers and record two sacks. Now back at home, I think Denver can improve upon that performance. They are a strong play in cash games and GPPs.
SUNDAY NOTE: This line has dropped heavily in San Diego’s favor from about 6.5 to now 3.5 at many places. I still like the Denver D but this is a surprising line move.
Secondary Option:
Dallas Cowboys ($4600 FD, $3000 DK)
Opponent: Philadelphia at Home
Spread: -5
Team Total: 19.00
Fantasy Pts Allowed: 4.83 (25th highest)
As an Eagles fan, I was kind of surprised that Dallas ended up here. The Eagles actually have one of the lower projected point totals of the week. But when you look closer, the Eagles have been doing a lot of scoring lately via their defense as their offense has struggled. The Eagles have been pretty stingy against opposing defenses this season, giving up just under five fantasy points per game. But over the last three weeks, Carson Wentz has turned the ball over four times, and has averaged only 185 passing yards per game. I do expect Dallas to lean on Zeke Elliott a lot here and I could see this game being low scoring overall. If Dallas can get a few turnovers, a sack or two, they could be on their way to a double digit fantasy scoring game. My heart may not let me go here, but Dallas does make an interesting GPP play at a cheaper price.
QUICK NOTE: Some people have asked but yes, Tennessee does meet the criteria tonight against Jacksonville and could be in play for the Thursday slate (I’d have them behind Denver but bordering on a top play this week). For the purposes of this article though, I have always excluded the Thursday game.
Other Defenses to Target
Minnesota Vikings ($5200 FD, $4100 DK)
Opponent: Chicago on the Road
Fantasy Pts Allowed: 7.00 (16th highest)
This is the other spot I was referring to when I discussed teams to pay up for at defense this week. But please note that Minnesota is again playing in the Monday night game and will not available for the main Sunday slate. The Vikings have been the best real life defense so far this season ranking first in total defense and first in scoring defense. They also ranked seventh in sacks and lead the league in takeaways with 16. They face the Bears this week who currently rank last in the NFL in scoring offense. The Bears do get Jay Cutler back this week. While it would have been great to take the Vikings against Matt Barkley, Cutler has certainly been known for his ability to turn the ball over as well. He does have two interceptions in 46 pass attempts this season. I think the Vikings are a great play in cash games and GPPs on the Thursday, Afternoon, and Primetime slates if you can afford them.
New York Jets ($4700 FD, $3400 DK)
Opponent: Cleveland on the Road
Fantasy Pts Allowed: 8.43 (7th highest)
The way you beat the Jets defense is through the air as they are 27th in the NFL against the pass but second against the rush. Fortunately for them, their opponent this week, the Cleveland Browns, are ranked 24th in the NFL in passing offense. They also may be turning to an undrafted rookie at QB in Kevin Hogan if Josh McCown cannot get healthy. The Browns are the seventh most generous team to opposing defenses as they have allowed the third most sacks in the NFL and have turned the ball over 10 times. I think the Jets defense is in a good spot here against a bad offense. The Browns should be forced to go one dimensional which could lead to some scoring opportunities for the Jets. I think they make a good GPP play this week.
Cleveland Browns ($4200 FD, $2500 DK)
Opponent: New York Jets
Fantasy Pts Allowed: 13.14 (highest in NFL)
I was hesitant to list the Browns here just because it is tough to put Cleveland Browns in any recommendation column that isn’t followed by “is their opponent this week.” But this is the best matchup for a defense in the NFL right now, and it is not that close. The Jets are allowing over 13 fantasy points per game to opposing defenses which includes over two sacks per game and two turnovers per game. The Browns defense is not good. But they are at home this week, and if the Browns are going to win a game this year, this is their best chance to do it. At a cheap price on FanDuel and almost minimum price on DraftKings, I think they are worth a shot in GPPs this week due to the upside the matchup provides.