Daily Fantasy D/ST: Week 9
Defense? Yes, we are talking about defense. Everyone’s favorite DFS position (other than kicker on some sites of course), where we all scroll to the bottom of the draft list and find the cheapest defense that has a decent matchup. Welcome to the weekly defense/special teams column where I will try to highlight some of the top defense/special teams plays for the week. I know defense tends to be an afterthought for some as they can be very boom or bust, but when you look at the final standings of these top heavy GPPs, often the choice at defense can be the difference in A LOT of money.
Defenses can make a huge difference in GPPs, but even in cash games, you do not want to spot your opponent points at any position by making “lazy” choices. You can certainly go cheap at defense many weeks, but I also think there are weeks where paying up for a top defense in the right matchup is the best play, especially in cash games. Defense and special team touchdowns can be unpredictable, but I also think you can put yourself in good situations to capitalize on those opportunities.
I just want to use this section this week to thank those of you who add comments or questions on the article each week. I do my best to try to answer the questions. I also try to check in Saturday night or Sunday night to add any updates to the article. While we may not be discussing QB’s, RB’s, or WR’s, defenses are an important part of lineup construction each week. This article is fun for me to do each week and helps keep me further engaged with the great community that Rotogrinders has created. I can’t say I personally know any of the other writers who provide content for this site, many of which play 10-100 times the volume I do, but I do think this site has some great content provided by individuals that take pride in the content they produce.
Week 8 2016 Recap
NOTE: The numbers below reflect an average of defensive fantasy points from the start of the 2014 season through Week 8 2016. Top plays and secondary plays only started in Week 7 2016 as a way to breakout defense that fit the criteria into two separate categories.
All Defenses that Fit the Criteria: 8.86
Top Plays (Defense that Fit the Criteria): 12.33
Secondary Plays (Defense that Fit the Criteria): 7.00
Other Defenses to Target: 8.06
All Favorites: 8.22
All Home Teams: 7.29
All Teams: 6.90
Week 8 was a fairly low scoring week for defenses overall, where only five teams reached double digit scoring, while 15 defenses produced five fantasy points or less. The top play of the week, Denver, was also tied for the highest scoring defense of the week. This was the big hit for the week. I hope many of you decided to pay up for a defense like Denver because the other picks were all below average last week, as teams seemingly in good spots failed to produce fantasy points.
Defenses that Fit the Criteria (At Home, Favored and Opponent Team Total of 21 points or less
Top Plays
Kansas City Chiefs ($5100 FD, $3500 DK)
Opponent: Jacksonville at Home
Spread: -7.5
Team Total: 18.25
Fantasy Pts Allowed: 6.86 (16th highest)
The Chiefs may have the hottest defense out there. Over their last three weeks, they have recorded nine sacks and six turnovers and have reached double digit fantasy points every week. Overall, the Chiefs are tied for the NFL lead in takeaways and are tied for eighth in scoring defense. This week they face a Jacksonville offense that is in the bottom third of the league in both total offense and scoring offense. Jacksonville has turned the ball over 13 times this season, nine of which have been interceptions thrown by Blake Bortles. Jacksonville has been middle of the pack in fantasy points allowed to opposing defense but I think this game sets up nicely for the Chiefs defense as they are touchdown or greater favorites and the Jaguars rushing offense ranks 30th in the NFL. I expect Bortles to be throwing it a lot which should give the Chiefs an opportunity to make plays. The Chiefs are my favorite cash game and GPP play this week.
Seattle Seahawks ($4900 FD, $3900 DK)
Opponent: Buffalo at Home
Spread: -7
Team Total: 18.5
Fantasy Pts Allowed: 4.00 (29th highest)
The Seattle defense at home as big favorites is usually always a good place to look. The Seahawks again rank second in scoring defense and sixth in total defense. They also rank third in sacks. The main hesitation here compared to the Chiefs above is their opponent, Buffalo, has allowed only four fantasy points per game to opposing defenses. This is because the Bills want to run the ball a lot and control the clock, which is why they have only turned the ball over four times this season. The being said, the Seahawks are sixth in the NFL against the run. If their own offense can put some points on the board, the Seahawks may be able to force Buffalo to throw it more which could result in some opportunities for turnovers. I almost bumped them down to the next level, but kept them as a top play, especially on FanDuel where they are priced below Kansas City. Please note though that this is the Monday night game and not available on the main Sunday slate.
Secondary Options
Minnesota Vikings ($5300 FD, $4000 DK)
Opponent: Detroit at Home
Spread: -6
Team Total: 17.5
Fantasy Pts Allowed: 4.25 (27th highest)
The Vikings defense came back to earth a little bit this past Monday night but they still rank second in total defense and first in scoring defense. They also are tied for the NFL lead in takeaways. So why are they not listed in the “Top Plays” section? Two reasons mainly starting with their opponent this week, the Detroit Lions. Like Buffalo above, the Lions have been very stingy to opposing defenses, surrendering just over four fantasy points per game. This is mainly because they have only turned the ball over five times so far this season. The second reason, and maybe the most important, is the Vikings own offense. The Vikings offensive line is really bad and they have very little to no running game, which is making it difficult for Sam Bradford to move the ball. Not to mention, I do not think Sam Bradford is a good QB to begin with. This makes it difficult on their own defense who is asked to be on the field a lot and put in bad field position. For this reason, and also their top tier price on both sites this week, I list the Vikings as a secondary play.
Miami Dolphins ($4700 FD, $3100 DK)
Opponent: New York Jets at Home
Spread: -3.5
Team Total: 20.25
Fantasy Pts Allowed: 11.63 (highest in NFL)
The Dolphins defense has been middle of the pack in both total defense and scoring defense so far this season. But we are not targeting the Miami defense here. We are targeting their opponent, the NY Jets, who continue to be the most favorable matchup for fantasy defenses. Ryan Fitzpatrick did not throw an interception last week but he did only completed 16 of 34 passes. The Jets are still second in the NFL in giveaways. I like the price on DraftKings a lot more than FanDuel but I think the Dolphins make a good GPP play considering the matchup.
New York Giants ($4300 FD, $3200 DK)
Opponent: Philadelphia at Home
Spread: -2.5
Team Total: 20.25
Fantasy Pts Allowed: 4.86 (25th highest)
The Giants are probably my least favorite defense that fit the criteria this week but they did post 20 fantasy points in their last game, are coming off a bye, are favored, and at home. That’s usually a pretty good combination to target. The Giants are 10th in scoring defense on the year but mediocre to below average in most other defensive categories. Their opponent this week has also been pretty stingy in terms of fantasy points allowed averaging less than five fantasy points per game. The Giants would make a contrarian GPP target, and their price looks more enticing on FanDuel than DraftKings.
Other Defense to Target
Carolina Panthers ($5200 FD, $3400 DK)
Opponent: St Louis on Road
Fantasy Pts Allowed: 11.14 (2nd highest)
Overall the Panthers defense has not lived up to expectations this year, but they are coming off a 20 point fantasy performance this past week against the Cardinals. The Panthers also know that every game is almost a must win at this point considering their poor start to the season. This week they face a Rams team that has been one of the most generous in the NFL to opposing defenses. The Rams rank third to last in total offense and tied for second to last in scoring offense. They have also turned the ball over 13 times. Even though Carolina is on the road here, I think this is a high upside matchup for them. Their price looks best on DraftKings, but I think they are a good GPP on both sites this week.