Daily Fantasy NFL: H2H vs. GPP (Week 8)

by RotoGrinders Last Updated 2013-10-26 23:20:06

Part 1 – 50/50’s/Double-ups and Head-to-Head

When playing 50-50’s/Double-ups or head-to-head, you want guaranteed points. This is not where you roll the dice on all-or-nothing players. The idea is to simply produce a solid, well balanced team. It may not be explosive, but it doesn’t matter whether you finish in first place or not, you just need to cash.

Quarterback

Robert Griffin III – RG3 has had a few duds this season, but he’s rounding back into form and looked like the running Quarterback we know-and-love last week. He’s facing a Denver defense that’s currently giving up the most points to opposing QBs (336 paYD per game). The emergence of Jordan Reed only helps his case.

Drew Brees – The Bills defense is allowing 278.1 yards per game and 2.1 TDs to opposing QBs. So far they have faced: Tom Brady, Cam Newton, Geno Smith, Joe Flacco, Brandon Weeden, Andy Dalton, and Ryan Tannehill. Not exactly a lethal dose of air mail. Brees is as consistent as they get, and primed for a huge game.

Running Backs

Eddie Lacy – The running game is back in Green Bay! Lacy is averaging close to 23 carries over the Last 3 games and about 100 yards per game. With all the receiving injuries piling up for the Packers, they’ll be forced to lean on him even more heavily moving forward. If you factor in receiving from RBs, Minnesota is giving up the most FPs to opposing backs.

Frank Gore – I have been fading Gore in season-long drafts for almost 3 years now, because I thought he was past his prime. He continues to prove doubters wrong. Gore is the workhorse of a run-first team facing the Jaguars. He gets goal-line carries and consistent touches. This is a shoe-in H2H (head-to-head) play for value.

Wide Receiver

Pierre Garcon – Oui, oui. Mr. Garcon is primed for a big day. Being the #1 option in an offense really helps consistency for head-to-head or 50/50 matches, and Garcon is just that. Garcon is 6th in the NFL for % of Targets received by their team’s QB (and 4th overall in Targets/Game). Factor that in with the fact that he’s going against the Denver Pass D allowing 336 PaYD a game, and he’s primed for a consistent performance…with monster upside.

Eric Decker – Decker could be viewed as a GPP play as well being 1 of 4 receiving options on his team, but the Denver offense is surreal. Despite Peyton having so many targets to throw to, Decker has only not reached double-digits twice so far this season.

Jordy Nelson – We were just talking about how consistency at the WR position is correlated with % of targets a WR receives of their entire team. Well, without Finley, Cobb and James Jones, Jordy is the man for Rodgers to throw to this week. And he is facing a defense allowing 31.8 FPs to opposing WRs this season.

Tight End

Jordan Reed – Jordan Reed is the only positive thing going on for the Florida Gators this year. Jordan Reed had a coming out party last week to the tune of 9 receptions for 134 yards and 1 TD. It’s easy to react to recent performance, but Washington has made a lot of effort to get the rookie more involved since their BYE week. Evidence points towards the Skins wanting to trade Fred Davis, green-lighting Reed as the #2 option in this passing offense. As noted twice above, the Redskins have a good matchup through the air this week.

Rob Gronkowski – With Jimmy Graham looking doubtful, and Gronkowski back fully healthy, Gronk is the clear #1 TE overall this week – regardless of matchup. Get him while his price isn’t maxed out. – Julius Thomas is my 3rd favorite TE for H2H’s and 50/50s.

D/ST

Kansas City Chiefs – The #1 D/ST on the year gets to face the Browns with Jason Campbell at the helm…in Arrowhead.

San Francisco 49ers – The 49ers defense takes on a Jaguars team allowing a paltry 10.9 PPG

Seattle Seahawks – We all know how potent Seattle’s defense is. This week they get the Rams the first week after losing their starting quarterback, Sam Bradford, for the season. It doesn’t matter who the Rams put at QB this week…it’s not going to be pretty.

Part 2 – GPP’s

GPP’s are a completely different story. You need guys to have huge days. GPP’s are all about upside. Value players are just as important as your studs in this game type.

Quarterback

Eli Manning – Eli had 334 yards and 2 TDs when he faced the Eagles just 3 weeks ago, but his 3 INTs killed his Fantasy Points for the day. The Eagales allow 21.3 FPPG to opposing QBs according to our Defense vs. Position Tool. It’s a divisional matchup and the Giants finally got their first win and some momentum vs. the Vikings last week. There’s always risk with Eli, but the upside is there.

Michael Vick – On the other side of the field, Vick carries similar risk + upside. It’s his first week back from injury, but he did test the hamstring out with a 100 yard dash and felt perfectly fine afterwards. There’s always the risk of losing Vick mid-game as well. That said the Giants allow 20.9 FPPG to opposing QBs, in what is shaping up to be a divisional shoot out. You play Vick in GPPs and handcuff him with DeSean Jackson hoping he replicates his Week 2 game vs. the Chargers where he tossed for 428 yards and 2 TDs. – If not that, there’s always some rushing upside.

Notable: Matt Stafford vs. Dallas’ 31st ranked D/ST for FPPG allowed to Opposing QBs.

Running Back

Le’Veon Bell – Le’Veon Bell is the “bell” cow for the Steelers. After erupting for 22.4 fantasy points (0.5 PPR scoring) in his first week back, he faced two Top 5 Rush defenses (at the time of playing them) in BAL (currently #1) and NYJ. While the Jets contained him to 34 yards, he got an impressive 93 yards vs. the best rush D (in FPPG allowed to opposing RBs) in the league. Even vs. the Jets he still made up ground with his pass-catching abilities and finished with a decent day. This week Bell gets a much easier matchup vs. Oakland. This could be his breakout game.

Peyton Hillis – It looks like Jacobs will sit this week’s game out again. Hillis is certainly a risky play, but hey, that’s what this section is for! Hillis got 18 carries, 5 catches, 4 Red Zone Carries and 1 Rush TD last week vs. Minnesota. This week he gets a solid matchup vs. Philadelphia, and should be better conditioned to carry the load. There’s upside, and he should be close to min-price.

Wide Receiver

DeSean Jackson – Is there anyone more boom-or-bust than DeSean Jackson? Here’s his game log (DraftKings scoring):

That’s 4 weeks with at least 24 points OR 3 weeks with single-digit production. You’re never 100% confident in what you’ll get from D-Jax, but the upside is undeniable. Match that in with the plus-matchup described with Vick above, and he makes for a great GPP play this week.

Jarrett Boykin – Boykin reeled in 8 catches for 103 yards and a TD last week, and Finley played most of the game. This week the Pack are without Finley in addition to Cobb and James Jones. You can’t deny the opportunity here with Aaron Rodgers throwing him the ball. For the price and the upside, the matchup is irrelevant. So it doesn’t hurt that the Pack get the 25th worst defense in terms of FPPG allowed to WR.

Cecil Shorts / Justin Blackmon – The consistent part of the Jaguars Wide Receivers is that you know they will be playing catch-up and throwing the ball a ton. What you don’t know, is who will get the looks. It’s very hard to predict, which is why all Jags WR make for good GPP plays. Heck, last week Mike Brown (who?) came in and nabbed 5 catches for 120 yards for the Jags. Likely trailing the 49ers all game, look for one of these two Jags WRs to have a monster game.

Tight End

Vernon Davis – Vernon Davis gets the 27th worst defense in terms of FPPG allowed to TE this week in Jacksonville. If the 49ers get up big early, Vernon Davis could resort to a run-block role the entire game. In 3 of Vernon’s 6 games he’s had 10.2 or less FPPG. In the other 3 he’s had 17.8 or more (DK Scoring). No one forgets the 8 catch, 180 Yards, 2 TD game he had vs. ARI in Week 6. The upside is certainly here for this matchup.

Heath Miller – Heather Miller has looked solid since his return this season, averaging 10.7 FPPG with DK scoring. Despite the solid average, he’s yet to have his breakout game and only has 1 TD. For just $4,300 Ben’s favorite target from last season is worth the risk for a breakout game.

Defense

Bengals – The Bengals have a stout defense, despite some injury issues. The main allure here is the matchup. They face Geno Smith and the Jets, who are admittedly heating up, but still allow the 4th most turnovers per game in the entire NFL (2.14/game).