Daily Pitcher Breakdown: April 16th
The Daily Pitcher Breakdown goes in-depth to look at nearly every pitching option, with a focus on the best targets for each night. Sometimes there will be a best of the rest section featuring guys who are likely low-dollar options with some upside for those of you who prefer to load your lineup with hitting studs.
There will also be a contingent of the starters that you can ignore each day. They offer no discernible upside so they aren’t worth your time. Because it is baseball and a 162-game season, there are going to be times when guys from the ignore group go off, but we’re dealing with probabilities in the daily game so the goal is to give yourself the best odds for success, not find needle in the proverbial haystack that finally doesn’t poke you.
LEGEND
Stats Shown in Red Are BELOW AVERAGE
Stats Shown in White are AVERAGE
Stats Shown in Green Are ABOVE AVERAGE
Stats Shown in Blue Are ELITE
View descriptions of stats below and Legend FAQ
Daily Pitcher Chart
| Pitcher | TM | OPP | IP | ERA | SIERA | WHIP | GEM% | K% | BB% | HR/9 | G/F |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wood | CHC | NYY | 12.1 | 2.92 | 2.58 | 1.16 | 62.5% | 32.1% | 7.6% | 0.73 | 1.60 |
| Pineda | NYY | CHC | 12 | 1.50 | 3.20 | 0.92 | 26.1% | 4.4% | 0.75 | 0.56 | |
| Teheran | ATL | PHI | 19 | 2.84 | 5.19 | 1.37 | 50.0% | 11.3% | 7.5% | 0.95 | 0.92 |
| Lee | PHI | ATL | 18 | 5.50 | 3.19 | 1.67 | 58.1% | 18.3% | 1.2% | 0.50 | 1.88 |
| McAllister | CLE | DET | 11.2 | 2.31 | 3.91 | 1.34 | 45.8% | 22.5% | 8.2% | 0.00 | 0.71 |
| Sanchez | DET | CLE | 9 | 3.00 | 3.93 | 1.33 | 62.1% | 23.7% | 10.5% | 0.00 | 1.10 |
| Roark | WAS | MIA | 10.2 | 5.91 | 5.00 | 1.47 | 80.0% | 17.0% | 8.5% | 0.84 | 0.39 |
| Fernandez | MIA | WAS | 16.2 | 3.78 | 2.59 | 1.36 | 64.3% | 32.4% | 8.5% | 0.54 | 2.00 |
| Hernandez | SEA | TEX | 21.1 | 2.11 | 1.82 | 0.76 | 61.3% | 35.7% | 2.4% | 0.84 | 1.05 |
| Darvish | TEX | SEA | 15 | 0.00 | 2.99 | 0.67 | 46.9% | 27.3% | 3.6% | 0.00 | 0.58 |
| Dickey | TOR | MIN | 18.2 | 5.30 | 5.07 | 1.43 | 44.1% | 17.5% | 12.5% | 0.96 | 0.74 |
| Pelfrey | MIN | TOR | 10.1 | 7.84 | 6.00 | 1.88 | 17.2% | 12.0% | 14.0% | 3.48 | 0.81 |
| Buchholz | BOS | CWS | 10.1 | 6.97 | 2.77 | 1.98 | 75.0% | 18.4% | 0.0% | 2.61 | 2.30 |
| Danks | CWS | BOS | 13 | 4.15 | 4.63 | 1.31 | 27.3% | 18.5% | 11.1% | 0.69 | 1.07 |
| Guthrie | KCR | HOU | 12.2 | 3.55 | 5.12 | 1.31 | 48.5% | 13.0% | 9.3% | 0.71 | 1.00 |
| Keuchel | HOU | KCR | 12 | 3.75 | 3.61 | 1.42 | 36.4% | 21.6% | 7.8% | 1.50 | 1.73 |
| Milone | OAK | LAA | 5 | 5.40 | 2.51 | 2.00 | 34.6% | 25.9% | 0.0% | 1.80 | 1.33 |
| Skaggs | LAA | OAK | 15 | 2.40 | 2.93 | 0.93 | 28.6% | 15.8% | 1.8% | 0.60 | 3.11 |
| De La Rosa | COL | SDP | 13 | 9.69 | 3.80 | 1.46 | 50.0% | 25.8% | 11.3% | 2.08 | 1.07 |
| Cashner | SDP | COL | 21 | 1.29 | 2.94 | 0.81 | 50.0% | 27.5% | 8.8% | 0.00 | 2.50 |
| Maholm | LAD | SFG | 6.2 | 8.10 | 4.90 | 1.77 | 42.3% | 6.7% | 6.7% | 2.70 | 2.00 |
| Vogelsong | SFG | LAD | 9 | 8.00 | 4.45 | 1.89 | 21.1% | 20.0% | 6.7% | 2.00 | 0.31 |
Here is a look at the day’s slate of arms and how they might stack in their given matchups.
WEATHER STAYAWAYS:
Regardless of the talent, the weather is just too sketchy.
R.A. Dickey, TOR (at MIN)/*Mike Pelfrey, MIN* (v. TOR) – 70-80% chance of rain/snow in Minnesota. This will likely be PPD soon.
BEST BUYS:
These aren’t just low-cost guys with good matchups and/or venues, but you will also find expensive studs in here with great matchups. An ace facing another ace won’t find his way in here because the win probability for both is sliced significantly by facing each other.
Andrew Cashner, SD (v. COL) – He’s toting the second-best fastball in the game among those with at least 40 PA ending on the pitch. He’s allowed a 271 OPS off of his and his 28 percent strikeout rate on the pitch is fourth-best. Good luck, Rockies.
Yu Darvish, TEX (v. SEA) – This one should be fun. Darvish against Felix! Darvish has been excellent in his two starts since returning with 15 strikeouts in 15 IP and exactly zero runs allowed. He’s going to cost a ton, but he’s almost always going to be worth it.
Jose Fernandez, MIA (v. WAS) – His last start was a nightmare that ended your night before it even started. He was bound to have a dud at some point, every single pitcher does, but I’m confidently betting on a rebound. Another dud might cause some panic, but for now, it’s an isolated incident.
Felix Hernandez, SEA (at TEX) – I’m generally avoiding facing the Rangers, particularly in Texas, but Hernandez is obviously an exception. Additionally, the Rangers aren’t exactly popping on all cylinders right now, so it’s much easier to trust an ace going in there.
Anibal Sanchez, DET (v. CLE) – Sanchez hasn’t exactly been sharp in either of his first two outings, the first getting stunted by rain and the second getting stunted by his own early struggles. In fact, it was impressive to see him get through five considering the 62 pitches through two innings in LA.
Michael Pineda, NYY (v. CHC) – Pineda has been excellent through two starts and against legitimate offenses (TOR and BOS). Now he gets a Cubs offense that has a .290 wOBA against righties this year and that number could be headed down with a doubleheader against Tanaka and Pineda. Pineda still carries a friendly price at several outlets, so he could be a popular pick this evening.
GOOD BUYS:
This is where a lot of the high-priced big arms with decent or worse matchups will reside. Any top arm can thwart even the toughest lineup, but it’s not always the most sensible buy when they are among the most costly arms on the board. This is also where the ace v. ace matchups will be as they still have the potential for a big score, but just lack the high probability of the ever-important win.
Cliff Lee, PHI (v. ATL) – Lee has bounced back from that disastrous Opening Day start in Texas, though he’s still be a little hittable in his last two outings (18 H in 13 IP). I love the 14/0 K/BB ratio in those starts and the Braves are prone to the swing-and-miss, but I can’t quite classify among the best right now given how hot Atlanta has been.
Julio Teheran, ATL (at PHI) – We haven’t even seen his best yet, but he’s still carrying a 2.84 ERA into this game over his first three starts. The strikeouts haven’t been there and he’s had to work out of trouble in two of his three games (17 H in 12 IP in starts 1 and 3) so I think this is a growth stock to invest in. The Phillies are striking out 11th-most against righties, so this looks like a chance for Teheran to log six or seven punchouts.
Tyler Skaggs, LAA (v. OAK) – The young lefty appears to be coming into his own with the sharpest control we’ve seen from him to date. He has just one walk in his first 15 IP after a 9.2% BB rate in 68 IP over 2012-2013. The A’s haven’t done much of anything against southpaws so far with the fifth-lowest wOBA at .249 which includes a .174 AVG.
Tanner Roark, WAS (at MIA) – The Marlins kicked the hell outta Strasburg last night… somehow. Roark isn’t nearly as good as Strasburg and yet I don’t see them doing the same to him. It was just a rotten night for Strasburg, similar to the one Jose Fernandez had in Philly last weekend. I’m still not exactly sold on this Marlins offense outside of a few bats.
Dallas Keuchel, HOU (v. KC) – This is your bargain basement deal of the day. He’s coming off of a gem in Toronto (7 IP/1 ER) and he gets a KC offense that has been anemic against lefties thus far (.196 AVG, .234 wOBA). Homers have plagued him in that past, but that is NOT a strength of these KC Royals. They have exactly two thus far. TWO. AS A TEAM!!
USE CAUTION:
Travis Wood, CHC (at NYY) – I’m a little nervous of using Wood tonight because he’s perennially been a flyball pitcher with groundball rates in the 30s each of his first four seasons. This year he’s at 52% through two starts, but I’m not sure how legitimate that figure is yet so I’m just going to stay away. Additionally, it’s hard to back a Cubs arm if you’re hoping for a win and today that is especially so with Pineda on the mound.
John Danks, CWS (v. BOS) – If Danks can continue to stifle homers at a 0.7 HR/9 clip, he’s going to be a useful asset at times this season, but I don’t see a huge upside in rolling him out there against the Red Sox. He was a home run machine the last two years and two starts aren’t enough to suggest that he’s cured of that problem, so let’s back off here, but keep an eye on him for the future.
Zach McAllister, CLE (at DET) – The Tigers pummeled McAllister for a 9.00 ERA in three starts last year. He allowed 18 hits and 11 walks in 12 innings of work. McAllister has been much better than that in his two starts so far this season, but it’s a tough sell to jump on him headed into Detroit.
Clay Buchholz, BOS (at CWS) – I’ve never been a fan. I think I say that every time he pitches, so y’all probably get it by now. More to the point, he’s off to a wretched start having allowed 17.4 hits per nine, but his 9/0 K/BB ratio in 10.3 IP suggests things might get better sooner than later. I certainly don’t want to bet on sooner being against these White Sox and their league-leading wOBA against righties, even after Jake Peavy held ‘em down last night.
NOT AT ALL CONFIDENT, HERE’S WHY:
Jeremy Guthrie, KC (at HOU) – Even his good outings don’t really score big in the daily game because he doesn’t strike anybody out. I know he’s facing the Astros which makes it appealing, but I’m just not sold on the “anyone against the Astros or Marlins” approach, especially not a low-caliber arm like Guthrie. They popped him for 6 ER in a late-May start last year, too. That’s a pretty tiny sample, but there are just too many better options out there.
Jorge de la Rosa, COL (at SD) – He’s been awful thus far including trips to Miami and San Francisco, so I can’t just blindly back him heading into another pitcher-friendly venue. Use at your own risk.
YOU CAN SAFELY IGNORE:
Couldn’t pay me to use these guys.
Ryan Vogelsong, SF (v. LAD)
Paul Maholm, LAD (at SF)
Pitcher Advanced Stats and Stats Against
| Pitcher | wOBA vs L | ERA vs L | wOBA vs R | ERA vs R | AVG | OPS | BABIP | FIP | AVG-A | Pit/G | Strk% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wood | 0.278 | 3.02 | 0.291 | 3.20 | 0.259 | 0.735 | 0.300 | 2.70 | 0.208 | 104.00 | 63.9% |
| Pineda | 0.360 | 3.38 | 0.127 | 0.238 | 0.655 | 0.258 | 2.77 | 0.205 | 88.50 | 68.4% | |
| Teheran | 0.357 | 4.37 | 0.263 | 2.23 | 0.248 | 0.683 | 0.290 | 4.71 | 0.274 | 93.00 | 61.3% |
| Lee | 0.252 | 2.72 | 0.294 | 3.13 | 0.297 | 0.782 | 0.431 | 2.41 | 0.358 | 100.33 | 71.4% |
| McAllister | 0.333 | 3.90 | 0.315 | 3.36 | 0.256 | 0.722 | 0.324 | 2.33 | 0.244 | 92.50 | 63.8% |
| Sanchez | 0.308 | 3.51 | 0.237 | 1.61 | 0.269 | 0.782 | 0.320 | 2.52 | 0.235 | 89.50 | 62.6% |
| Roark | 0.299 | 3.04 | 0.174 | 0.75 | 0.284 | 0.792 | 0.323 | 4.87 | 0.275 | 90.50 | 61.3% |
| Fernandez | 0.257 | 2.66 | 0.217 | 1.53 | 0.279 | 0.795 | 0.366 | 2.28 | 0.246 | 96.33 | 67.1% |
| Hernandez | 0.298 | 3.41 | 0.265 | 2.49 | 0.230 | 0.616 | 0.250 | 2.15 | 0.175 | 102.67 | 67.9% |
| Darvish | 0.294 | 2.86 | 0.248 | 2.64 | 0.209 | 0.656 | 0.211 | 1.58 | 0.151 | 95.00 | 67.4% |
| Dickey | 0.330 | 4.33 | 0.307 | 4.19 | 0.257 | 0.740 | 0.264 | 4.84 | 0.232 | 102.67 | 61.4% |
| Pelfrey | 0.333 | 4.96 | 0.365 | 5.56 | 0.206 | 0.630 | 0.242 | 9.09 | 0.279 | 92.50 | 56.2% |
| Buchholz | 0.251 | 1.90 | 0.291 | 2.55 | 0.285 | 0.813 | 0.459 | 5.22 | 0.408 | 83.00 | 71.1% |
| Danks | 0.363 | 5.03 | 0.333 | 4.63 | 0.252 | 0.703 | 0.270 | 4.03 | 0.229 | 107.00 | 64.5% |
| Guthrie | 0.386 | 4.56 | 0.284 | 3.45 | 0.171 | 0.607 | 0.256 | 4.76 | 0.234 | 110.00 | 62.7% |
| Keuchel | 0.344 | 5.08 | 0.366 | 5.31 | 0.196 | 0.514 | 0.324 | 4.52 | 0.277 | 95.50 | 60.7% |
| Milone | 0.345 | 5.63 | 0.316 | 3.80 | 0.225 | 0.670 | 0.500 | 3.58 | 0.385 | 93.00 | 67.7% |
| Skaggs | 0.318 | 3.12 | 0.314 | 4.54 | 0.127 | 0.414 | 0.261 | 3.05 | 0.232 | 92.00 | 65.8% |
| De La Rosa | 0.231 | 1.75 | 0.348 | 4.33 | 0.188 | 0.512 | 0.265 | 5.80 | 0.226 | 89.67 | 61.0% |
| Cashner | 0.302 | 3.57 | 0.263 | 2.59 | 0.305 | 0.826 | 0.196 | 2.09 | 0.137 | 102.67 | 66.9% |
| Maholm | 0.251 | 2.36 | 0.378 | 5.35 | 0.274 | 0.823 | 0.304 | 7.83 | 0.333 | 29.00 | 58.6% |
| Vogelsong | 0.341 | 5.04 | 0.403 | 6.71 | 0.277 | 0.786 | 0.414 | 5.74 | 0.35 | 93.50 | 60.4% |
Starting Pitcher Salaries
Click the image below to view pitcher salaries by each daily fantasy site along with their percent of top statistics.
- Percent of Top (Top) – Player salary divided by the most expensive pitcher each day. So if Felix Hernandez is $9,000 on FanDuel and Justin Verlander is $4,500, Verlanders Top stat would be 50.
NOTE: Button for pitcher salary chart above opens in popup window