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Daily Pitcher Breakdown: August 10th, 2013

by PSporer Last Updated 2013-08-10 19:37:41

Welcome to the Daily Pitcher Breakdown. I will focus on the top selections of the day and give you a breakdown on why they are set up for success against their given opponent. Sometimes there will be a best of the rest section featuring guys who are likely low-dollar options with some upside for those of you who prefer to load your lineup with hitting studs.

There will also be a contingent of the starters that you can ignore each day. They offer no discernible upside so they aren’t worth your time. Because it is baseball and a 162-game season, there are going to be times when guys from the ignore group go off, but we’re dealing with probabilities in the daily game so the goal is to give yourself the best odds for success, not find needle in the proverbial haystack that finally doesn’t poke you.

LEGEND
Stats Shown in Red Are BELOW AVERAGE
Stats Shown in White are AVERAGE
Stats Shown in Green Are ABOVE AVERAGE
Stats Shown in Blue Are ELITE

View descriptions of stats below and Legend FAQ

Performance and Talent Statistics: August 10th, 2013

PLAYER PERFORMANCE TALENT
PITCHER TM IP ERA SIERA WHIP GEM% K% BB% HR/9 G/F
Lee PHI 149.2 3.13 3.15 1.04 52.0% 23.4% 4.1% 0.96 1.30
Jordan WAS 40.2 3.76 3.90 1.28 29.0% 13.5% 4.1% 0.44 2.08
Wilson LAA 147.0 3.49 3.84 1.33 48.0% 21.6% 8.7% 0.61 1.45
Jimenez CLE 116.1 4.18 4.39 1.48 32.0% 21.5% 12.1% 1.16 1.19
Eovaldi MIA 53.2 3.19 4.90 1.23 67.0% 15.0% 10.5% 0.67 1.32
Wood ATL 39.1 3.20 2.83 1.14 25.0% 26.0% 8.2% 0.23 2.85
Doubront BOS 124.0 3.56 3.98 1.37 43.0% 21.1% 9.6% 0.58 1.54
Guthrie KCR 138.2 4.22 4.97 1.40 57.0% 12.4% 8.0% 1.49 1.21
Ross SDP 65.0 2.91 3.92 1.22 50.0% 21.0% 10.1% 0.69 1.43
Cingrani CIN 82.2 3.05 3.36 1.11 46.0% 29.0% 10.5% 1.09 0.78
Holland TEX 155.0 3.02 3.60 1.25 57.0% 22.6% 6.8% 0.64 1.15
Peacock HOU 36.0 7.25 4.63 1.58 0.0% 20.0% 11.5% 2.50 0.58
Villanueva CHC 101.2 4.16 4.22 1.26 43.0% 18.4% 8.1% 1.06 1.03
Wacha STL 17.2 4.58 3.79 1.19 67.0% 19.2% 5.5% 1.02 1.24
Burnett PIT 128.2 2.73 3.16 1.20 50.0% 26.2% 8.9% 0.56 2.37
Nicasio COL 108.2 5.05 4.40 1.41 24.0% 16.5% 8.4% 1.08 1.41
Wheeler NYM 50.2 3.73 4.90 1.40 33.0% 18.3% 12.5% 1.42 0.89
McCarthy ARI 71.0 4.94 4.24 1.45 25.0% 14.1% 4.2% 0.89 1.37
Gorzelanny MIL 64.2 2.78 3.51 1.11 33.0% 23.5% 9.2% 0.97 1.41
Iwakuma SEA 150.0 2.76 3.24 0.97 58.0% 22.5% 4.1% 1.26 1.31

STARTING PITCHER BREAKDOWN

Here is a look at the day’s slate of arms and how they might stack in their given matchups.

BEST BUYS:

These aren’t just low-cost guys with good matchups and/or venues, but you will also find expensive studs in here with great matchups. An ace facing another ace won’t find his way in here because the win probability for both is sliced significantly by facing each other.

felix-doubront-300x200

Felix Doubront, BOS (at KC) – Doubront just keeps rolling extending his streak of outings allowing three or fewer runs to 15. He has a 2.55 ERA and 1.21 WHIP in that span with a 2.2 K/BB ratio. The Royals have a .295 wOBA against lefties, ranking just 23rd overall in baseball.

Tyson Ross, SD (at CIN) – The righty youngster has been excellent since rejoining the rotation on July 23rd with a 1.35 ERA, 0.70 WHIP, and 22 Ks in 20 IP. The Reds are just league average at home with a .316 wOBA and though it is a hitter’s park, I like Ross to have some success here with his 51% groundball rate and 0.69 HR/9 rate.

Derek Holland, TEX (at HOU) – This will actually be Holland’s first outing against the Astros this year which gives him a great chance to stay hot. He’s got a 2.33 ERA, 1.19 WHIP, and 55 Ks over 58 IP in his last eight outings including eight shutout innings in Oakland (plus 10 Ks) his last time out. We know the Astros don’t hit well, but they are particularly inept against righties at home with a .283 wOBA (second-worst).

Hisashi Iwakuma, SEA (v. MIL) – Remember when Iwakuma had that stretch of rough starts in late June-early July? They were only rough compared to his excellence to that point, but he allowed 4 ER in four straight outings and then 6 ER on July 9th. Since then he has a 1.91 ERA, 1.15 WHIP, 29 Ks, and a 3.2 K/BB ratio in five starts.

Cliff Lee, PHI (at WAS) – Prior to July, Lee had allowed more than 3 ER in just one of his 17 outings. In the subsequent four he’s done so three times averaging just six innings (low for him). The 24 strikeouts and 8.0 K/BB ratio in the 24.3 IP of work is still mighty impressive, but he’s just giving up far too many hits (32). One of those outings was a 7 IP/4 ER start against these Nats. The skills are too sharp to ignore and as he regains his command, he will get back to being a stud.

Alex Wood, ATL (v. MIA) – Wood has looked really sharp in his last two outings going 13 innings with a 2.77 ERA and 10/3 K/BB ratio. He’s spent most of his MLB season in the bullpen with just two other starts, but he’s coming along. He’s another one of those Braves pitches who doesn’t have a huge ceiling, but enters the majors with a ton of polish for his age. Plus, it’s the Marlins.

GOOD BUYS:

This is where a lot of the high-priced big arms with decent or worse matchups will reside. Any top arm can thwart even the toughest lineup, but it’s not always the most sensible buy when they are among the most costly arms on the board. This is also where the ace v. ace matchups will be as they still have the potential for a big score, but just lack the high probability of the ever-important win.

tony-cingrani-300x200

Tony Cingrani, CIN (v. SD) – Cingrani has quietly filled in brilliantly for Johnny Cueto (yet again) as he’s allowed three or fewer runs in his six starts with 40 strikeouts in 35.3 IP of work. He has just a 2-1 record for the efforts as he’s been on the losing/no-decision end of 2-0 and 1-0 battles. This isn’t as choice of a matchup as you might think considering that that Padres are actually sixth in the league in wOBA v. LHP at .320 and it jumps to .334 on the road – good for second.

A.J. Burnett, PIT (at COL) – I’m not letting Liriano’s outing influence me here even though it was a nightmare. He went 9 IP/1 ER against these Rockies at home his last time out and yes it’ll be different because of the environment, but I think he’ll be OK.

Tom Gorzelanny, MIL (at SEA) – The real problem with Gorzy for our purposes is that he just doesn’t go deep into games. The M’s are on fire of late, but not against lefties. They are second-worst in wOBA at .258, better than only the Giants. Because you can probably only expect six innings max, I only like Gorzy as a secondary starter.

michael-wacha-300x200

Michael Wacha, STL (v. CHC) – Wacha’s got two great starts of his three in the majors, but this will be his first in the majors since June 11th. The Cubs aren’t completely inept offensively (basically league average against righties), but I like this spot for Wacha.

Nathan Eovaldi, MIA (at ATL) – After getting blasted in Milwaukee, Eovaldi has put up a 1.42 ERA in his last three outings with a 1.16 WHIP. The 10/8 K/BB is far from special – in fact it’s terrible – but he’s gone six-plus in all three and done a good job limiting hits. Eovaldi has great stuff, but he’s still learning how to use it properly.

Zack Wheeler, NYM (at ARI) – The inconsistency of rookies: 5.06 ERA in his first three starts, 2.73 ERA in his next five, and then 5 IP/4 ER outing against the lowly Royals offense. Despite their friendly home park, the D’backs are just 19th in wOBA against righties there with a .312.

USE CAUTION:

C.J. Wilson, LAA (at CLE) – Wilson’s been impressive this year on the whole, but the Indians rake lefties (.333 wOBA – third overall) so he gets bumped down a bit. He has at least five strikeouts in each of his last seven outings racking up 48 in 47.3 IP. I don’t love him as a primary option today, but he should be able to rack up some Ks to minimize the damage if he doesn’t have a great outing.

Taylor Jordan, WAS (v. PHI) – He’s been a mixed been a mixed bag in his seven starts yielding about a league average effort (3.76 ERA, 1.28 WHIP) in his 40.7 IP. He’s faced the Phillies earlier this year and went 5.7 IP/3 ER in a loss. I could see him improving on the effort, but he’s not a big strikeout guy and there just isn’t a ton of upside.

Carlos Villanueva, CHC (at STL) – I am impressed by the 6 IP/1 ER outing against the Dodgers, but I’m not testing fate twice with him against an even better lineup in the Cards this time around.

NOT AT ALL CONFIDENT, HERE’S WHY:

Brandon McCarthy, ARI (v. NYM) – Even against the sputtering Mets, let’s see something from him first.
Jeremy Guthrie, KC (v. BOS) – He’s either great or terrible and I’m fully expecting the latter against the Red Sox.

YOU CAN SAFELY IGNORE:

Couldn’t pay me to use these guys.

ADVANCED METRICS: August 10th, 2013

VS. L/R HANDED BATTERS OPP vs L/R OTHER ADVANCED STATS
PITCHER wOBA L ERA L wOBA R ERA R AVG OPS BABIP FIP AVG-A Pit/G Strk%
Lee 0.289 3.35 0.284 3.06 0.212 0.620 0.282 3.09 0.233 104.10 71.2%
Jordan 0.340 5.19 0.318 2.70 0.255 0.698 0.316 3.28 0.280 86.00 65.9%
Wilson 0.261 2.73 0.317 3.69 0.268 0.764 0.304 3.26 0.244 110.04 63.2%
Jimenez 0.318 3.84 0.360 4.68 0.276 0.771 0.294 4.45 0.246 97.64 60.8%
Eovaldi 0.241 2.52 0.337 3.81 0.256 0.751 0.244 4.06 0.218 92.56 63.7%
Wood 0.224 2.19 0.295 3.81 0.226 0.642 0.301 2.28 0.221 34.58 63.5%
Doubront 0.312 2.37 0.322 3.87 0.262 0.691 0.311 3.40 0.249 100.76 61.2%
Guthrie 0.379 4.89 0.305 3.53 0.284 0.814 0.276 5.32 0.269 101.55 63.0%
Ross 0.313 3.19 0.270 2.73 0.250 0.722 0.266 3.65 0.218 42.00 61.9%
Cingrani 0.264 3.68 0.291 2.87 0.256 0.740 0.246 3.61 0.191 81.06 61.5%
Holland 0.286 3.25 0.313 2.98 0.249 0.693 0.314 2.96 0.251 103.61 66.1%
Peacock 0.475 10.00 0.314 4.50 0.260 0.740 0.277 6.57 0.264 69.60 59.5%
Villanueva 0.328 4.25 0.313 4.21 0.284 0.765 0.280 4.15 0.246 52.83 62.5%
Wacha 0.230 1.59 0.392 9.95 0.245 0.708 0.283 3.60 0.246 94.67 65.8%
Burnett 0.344 3.70 0.241 2.00 0.268 0.762 0.293 2.94 0.219 102.25 64.7%
Nicasio 0.337 5.72 0.341 4.55 0.242 0.695 0.291 4.33 0.259 92.76 62.5%
Wheeler 0.396 5.68 0.291 2.59 0.253 0.707 0.243 5.31 0.223 98.78 59.5%
McCarthy 0.343 4.50 0.351 5.52 0.235 0.679 0.337 3.72 0.303 93.17 68.5%
Gorzelanny 0.278 2.11 0.282 3.14 0.229 0.661 0.247 3.77 0.205 26.03 62.5%
Iwakuma 0.276 2.31 0.298 3.31 0.251 0.709 0.246 3.61 0.216 92.57 68.6%

Starting Pitcher Salaries: August 10th, 2013

Click the image below to view pitcher salaries by each daily fantasy site along with their percent of top statistics.

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About the Author

PSporer
PSporer

Paul has been writing about baseball for 15 years at various internet outlets and he’s been an avid fantasy baseballer for 21 of his 33 years on this planet, joining his first league at 12 years old which is still running today. He writes a comprehensive starting pitcher guide each year and it’s now available thespguide.com. When’s he’s not watching baseball, he is sleeping, because why would anyone waste time being awake if they weren’t going to watch baseball? He writes three times a week and has his own podcast at Fangraphs with co-hosts Eno Sarris & Jason Collette, contributes to Rotowire, and he has been a guest co-host with Matthew Berry on ESPN’s Fantasy Focus podcast.