Daily Pitcher Breakdown: August 1st, 2013
Welcome to the Daily Pitcher Breakdown. I will focus on the top selections of the day and give you a breakdown on why they are set up for success against their given opponent. Sometimes there will be a best of the rest section featuring guys who are likely low-dollar options with some upside for those of you who prefer to load your lineup with hitting studs.
There will also be a contingent of the starters that you can ignore each day. They offer no discernible upside so they aren’t worth your time. Because it is baseball and a 162-game season, there are going to be times when guys from the ignore group go off, but we’re dealing with probabilities in the daily game so the goal is to give yourself the best odds for success, not find needle in the proverbial haystack that finally doesn’t poke you.
LEGEND
Stats Shown in Red Are BELOW AVERAGE
Stats Shown in White are AVERAGE
Stats Shown in Green Are ABOVE AVERAGE
Stats Shown in Blue Are ELITE
View descriptions of stats below and Legend FAQ
Performance and Talent Statistics: August 1st, 2013
| PLAYER | PERFORMANCE | TALENT | |||||||||
| PITCHER | TM | IP | ERA | SIERA | WHIP | GEM% | K% | BB% | HR/9 | G/F | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lyles | HOU | 89.2 | 4.92 | 4.29 | 1.47 | 38.0% | 14.6% | 7.2% | 0.80 | 1.90 | |
| Norris | BAL | 126.0 | 3.93 | 4.50 | 1.41 | 43.0% | 16.6% | 8.0% | 0.79 | 0.98 | |
| Kelly | STL | 55.0 | 3.44 | 3.96 | 1.38 | 25.0% | 17.3% | 7.6% | 1.15 | 1.52 | |
| Morton | PIT | 42.2 | 3.59 | 3.37 | 1.29 | 14.0% | 17.8% | 6.0% | 1.05 | 3.00 | |
| Cain | SFG | 124.0 | 4.79 | 3.87 | 1.19 | 48.0% | 22.0% | 8.1% | 1.16 | 0.94 | |
| Hamels | PHI | 141.0 | 4.09 | 3.67 | 1.25 | 55.0% | 21.8% | 6.6% | 0.96 | 1.10 | |
| Bettis | COL | MLB Debut | |||||||||
| Teheran | ATL | 126.0 | 3.07 | 3.69 | 1.17 | 55.0% | 20.3% | 5.0% | 1.07 | 1.06 | |
| Hernandez | SEA | 153.2 | 2.34 | 2.76 | 1.05 | 73.0% | 26.2% | 4.5% | 0.64 | 1.77 | |
| Dempster | BOS | 121.0 | 4.24 | 4.26 | 1.45 | 38.0% | 20.9% | 10.5% | 1.49 | 1.07 | |
| Struill | ARI | First Start | |||||||||
| Darvish | TEX | 131.2 | 2.80 | 2.79 | 1.03 | 50.0% | 32.4% | 8.9% | 1.09 | 1.21 | |
| Nolasco | LAD | 135.1 | 3.72 | 3.93 | 1.24 | 41.0% | 18.8% | 6.0% | 0.80 | 1.23 | |
| Rusin | CHC | 15.1 | 2.93 | 4.30 | 0.98 | 33.0% | 15.0% | 6.7% | 1.17 | 1.50 | |
| Johnson | TOR | 74.0 | 6.08 | 3.64 | 1.57 | 29.0% | 22.3% | 7.5% | 1.70 | 1.40 | |
| Richards | LAA | 72.2 | 4.33 | 3.60 | 1.29 | 20.0% | 16.7% | 6.8% | 0.74 | 2.30 | |
STARTING PITCHER BREAKDOWN
Here is a look at the day’s slate of arms and how they might stack in their given matchups.
BEST BUYS:
These aren’t just low-cost guys with good matchups and/or venues, but you will also find expensive studs in here with great matchups. An ace facing another ace won’t find his way in here because the win probability for both is sliced significantly by facing each other.
Yu Darvish, TEX (v. ARI) – He’s not quite at “Clayton Kershaw(player-profile)”:/players/Clayton_Kershaw-10905’s level, but I think a similar “Duh” is warranted with him. What can I really add analysis-wise with him? He’s amazing. He’s going to cost a lot, but he’s almost always going to be worth it.
Julio Teheran, ATL (v. COL) – He just continues to amaze all year long including a recent domination of the Cards with seven shutout innings of two-hit ball with six strikeout and one walk. Of course he didn’t get a win, but what an outing. The Rockies are average on the road with a .312 wOBA, but that’s built on a strong April on the road as they are down to .295 (26th) since May 1st.
Cole Hamels, PHI (v. SF) – Hamels quietly had a 2.57 ERA shaving 0.50 ERA off of his season mark. He had a 1.09 WHIP, 30 Ks, and a 5.0 K/BB ratio in his 35 IP across five starts. The Giants have a .295 wOBA against lefties this year which slots them 24th in baseball. This sets up brilliantly for Hamels to stay hot.
Felix Hernandez, SEA (at BOS) – The venue was easier, but Felix manhandled the Sox for seven strong allowing just two runs on six hits and two walks with six strikeouts. Venue and opponent don’t really matter with him. I would lean Darvish against the D’Backs if I was going to invest in one of the superstuds today, but I don’t blame anyone backing Felix. He’s fourth just because of the Red Sox potent offense.
GOOD BUYS:
This is where a lot of the high-priced big arms with decent or worse matchups will reside. Any top arm can thwart even the toughest lineup, but it’s not always the most sensible buy when they are among the most costly arms on the board. This is also where the ace v. ace matchups will be as they still have the potential for a big score, but just lack the high probability of the ever-important win.
Matt Cain, SF (at PHI) – His first two starts after the All-Star break have been sharp with a 2.25 ERA and 1.25 WHIP in 12 IP with 11 Ks. He still has a 4.79 ERA this season which holds his price down a bit making him a solid value against a meager Phillies lineup (.304 wOBA v. RHP, 22nd in MLB).
Ricky Nolasco, LAD (at CHC) – As a Marlin Nolasco threw seven strong against the Cubs allowing three runs on four hits with two strikeouts and walks. He’s been sharp as a Dodger with a 3.13 ERA in four starts over 23 IP. His 1.35 WHIP is elevated and he has just a 1.8 K/BB ratio, but this is the Cubs so I’m confident with him here.
Joe Kelly, STL (at PIT) – Kelly has a 2.55 ERA in his three starts with a 1.24 WHIP, but 15% K rate and 1.6 K/BB ratio. However, the Pirates are even worse offensively than the Phillies with a .301 wOBA against righties. Plus, I honestly can’t see the Cards dropping five straight to the Pirates. I know that’s an overwhelmingly compelling reason to pick someone, but this team is too good to stay down this long (now lost 7 straight).
USE CAUTION:
Ryan Dempster, BOS (v. SEA) – Was Seattle’s hot July just a nice run or something more? It’s looking like the former given their recent run of just 3.2 R/G in their last nine. The talent is there, but it’s young so it’s more prone to streaks. They did rip Dempster in Seattle for seven runs (four earned) on nine hits in just 3.3 IP back on July 11th so I’m playing it cautiously with him.
Charlie Morton, PIT (v. STL) – What Morton lacks in strikeout rate (18%), he makes up in groundball rate (61%) and honestly that strikeout rate is up quite a bit from his 14.5% career rate. He’s been pretty solid, but I’m honestly worrying about the volcano that is the Cards lineup exploded at any moment. I’d play it safe here and look elsewhere.
Garrett Richards, LAA (v. TOR) – There’s a lot of talent here, but I’m still cautious because it’s just his second start back in the rotation and he’s facing a tough Toronto offense (though admittedly diminished on the road). The former is a bigger concern as he had just 78 pitches last time out going five innings and he might be capped around 90-something/6-innings this time around which puts a lot fate in the hands of that wretched bullpen.
NOT AT ALL CONFIDENT, HERE’S WHY:
Bud Norris, BAL (v. HOU) – This will be an interesting experiment. Norris has a 5.91 ERA on the road and 2.92 ERA at home. Is it Houston-related or just being “home”? Will he have a leg up on his teammates or will they have an idea how to handle him? I’m not paying to find out.
Jordan Lyles, HOU (at BAL) – He’d been pitching really well for a while, but he has an 8.13 ERA in his last six and I’m back to not trusting him at all.
Chad Bettis, COL (at ATL) – It’s his MLB debut, he’s coming up from Double-A, and ATL is absolutely on fire.
Zeke Spruill, ARI (at TEX) – It’s his first MLB start.
YOU CAN SAFELY IGNORE:
Couldn’t pay me to use these guys.
Josh Johnson, TOR (at LAA)
Chris Rusin, CHC (v. LAD)
ADVANCED METRICS: August 1st, 2013
| VS. L/R HANDED BATTERS | OPP vs L/R | OTHER ADVANCED STATS | |||||||||||
| PITCHER | wOBA L | ERA L | wOBA R | ERA R | AVG | OPS | BABIP | FIP | AVG-A | Pit/G | Strk% | ||
| Lyles | 0.350 | 5.16 | 0.371 | 4.74 | 0.277 | 0.791 | 0.317 | 4.16 | 0.281 | 95.63 | 61.2% | ||
| Norris | 0.374 | 5.24 | 0.285 | 2.51 | 0.230 | 0.660 | 0.316 | 3.87 | 0.273 | 97.86 | 64.3% | ||
| Kelly | 0.326 | 4.15 | 0.335 | 2.79 | 0.242 | 0.698 | 0.304 | 4.35 | 0.269 | 33.04 | 62.7% | ||
| Morton | 0.392 | 6.75 | 0.304 | 1.73 | 0.284 | 0.761 | 0.305 | 4.35 | 0.265 | 80.50 | 63.7% | ||
| Cain | 0.306 | 4.37 | 0.308 | 5.19 | 0.258 | 0.703 | 0.259 | 3.99 | 0.222 | 97.95 | 63.7% | ||
| Hamels | 0.306 | 4.66 | 0.333 | 3.96 | 0.261 | 0.689 | 0.304 | 3.57 | 0.251 | 103.55 | 66.6% | ||
| Bettis | 0.252 | 0.738 | |||||||||||
| Teheran | 0.339 | 4.13 | 0.289 | 2.18 | 0.267 | 0.761 | 0.293 | 3.76 | 0.251 | 95.80 | 67.0% | ||
| Hernandez | 0.287 | 2.64 | 0.278 | 2.04 | 0.284 | 0.815 | 0.306 | 2.48 | 0.235 | 103.82 | 64.7% | ||
| Dempster | 0.311 | 3.92 | 0.387 | 4.67 | 0.249 | 0.732 | 0.292 | 4.83 | 0.253 | 102.43 | 61.6% | ||
| Struill | 0.262 | 0.741 | |||||||||||
| Darvish | 0.299 | 2.81 | 0.233 | 2.82 | 0.256 | 0.716 | 0.252 | 3.22 | 0.186 | 109.20 | 63.2% | ||
| Nolasco | 0.334 | 4.48 | 0.287 | 2.97 | 0.248 | 0.717 | 0.299 | 3.49 | 0.255 | 99.23 | 62.2% | ||
| Rusin | 0.220 | 4.91 | 0.270 | 2.31 | 0.266 | 0.735 | 0.200 | 4.35 | 0.196 | 76.33 | 60.3% | ||
| Johnson | 0.332 | 4.40 | 0.434 | 8.79 | 0.274 | 0.765 | 0.338 | 4.60 | 0.285 | 94.07 | 61.6% | ||
| Richards | 0.307 | 3.46 | 0.315 | 5.73 | 0.254 | 0.752 | 0.290 | 3.59 | 0.253 | 34.77 | 62.6% | ||
- Opp Avg vs. L/R – Opponent Batting Average vs. Left/Right Handed Pitching
- Opp OPS vs. L/R – Opponent On Base + Slugging Percentage vs. Left/Right Handed Pitching
- wOBA-L and wOBA-R – Pitcher Weighted On Base Percentage Against vs. Left/Right Handed Batters
- ERA-L and ERA-R – Pitcher Earned Run Average against Left/Right Handed Batters
- BABIP – Pitcher Batting Average Against on Balls In Play
- FIP – Fielding Independent Pitching
- Pit/G – Average Pitches Thrown Per Game
- Strk% – Percentage of Pitches for Strikes
Starting Pitcher Salaries: August 1st, 2013
Click the image below to view pitcher salaries by each daily fantasy site along with their percent of top statistics.
- Percent of Top (Top) – Player salary divided by the most expensive pitcher each day. So if Felix Hernandez is $9,000 on FanDuel and Justin Verlander is $4,500, Verlanders Top stat would be 50.
NOTE: Button for pitcher salary chart above opens in popup window