Daily Pitcher Breakdown: August 1st
The Daily Pitcher Breakdown goes in-depth to look at nearly every pitching option, with a focus on the best targets for each night. Sometimes there will be a best of the rest section featuring guys who are likely low-dollar options with some upside for those of you who prefer to load your lineup with hitting studs.
There will also be a contingent of the starters that you can ignore each day. They offer no discernible upside so they aren’t worth your time. Because it is baseball and a 162-game season, there are going to be times when guys from the ignore group go off, but we’re dealing with probabilities in the daily game so the goal is to give yourself the best odds for success, not find needle in the proverbial haystack that finally doesn’t poke you.
LEGEND
Stats Shown in Red Are BELOW AVERAGE
Stats Shown in White are AVERAGE
Stats Shown in Green Are ABOVE AVERAGE
Stats Shown in Blue Are ELITE
View descriptions of stats below and Legend FAQ
Daily Pitcher Chart
| Pitcher | TM | OPP | IP | ERA | SIERA | WHIP | GEM% | K% | BB% | HR/9 | G/F |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Williams | TEX | CLE | 53.2 | 5.53 | 3.71 | 1.49 | 0.0% | 17.40% | 6.6% | 1.17 | 1.33 |
| House | CLE | TEX | 50.0 | 4.50 | 3.61 | 1.56 | 25.0% | 14.40% | 6.3% | 1.26 | 3.19 |
| Hernandez | PHI | WAS | 113.0 | 4.14 | 4.76 | 1.39 | 35.3% | 14.50% | 10.8% | 0.88 | 1.75 |
| Fister | WAS | PHI | 90.1 | 2.69 | 3.92 | 1.08 | 58.3% | 14.80% | 3.0% | 1.00 | 1.37 |
| Elias | SEA | BAL | 123.1 | 4.31 | 3.88 | 1.27 | 26.3% | 21.20% | 8.7% | 1.02 | 1.20 |
| Chen | BAL | SEA | 117.0 | 3.92 | 3.92 | 1.26 | 31.6% | 16.80% | 4.1% | 1.38 | 1.12 |
| Morales | COL | DET | 97.1 | 5.18 | 4.68 | 1.61 | 15.4% | 15.40% | 10.2% | 1.76 | 1.32 |
| Verlander | DET | COL | 142.2 | 4.79 | 4.42 | 1.44 | 35.0% | 16.80% | 8.3% | 0.88 | 1.04 |
| Vogelsong | SFG | NYM | 118.2 | 3.94 | 3.83 | 1.35 | 52.6% | 19.80% | 6.5% | 0.61 | 1.04 |
| Niese | NYM | SFG | 114.1 | 3.23 | 3.91 | 1.27 | 41.2% | 17.50% | 6.7% | 0.71 | 1.61 |
| Capuano | NYY | BOS | 37.2 | 4.30 | 4.16 | 1.54 | 0.0% | 19.30% | 11.1% | 0.72 | 1.05 |
| Ranaudo | BOS | NYY | |||||||||
| Latos | CIN | MIA | 51.2 | 3.31 | 4.39 | 0.89 | 66.7% | 15.80% | 5.4% | 0.52 | 0.72 |
| Turner | MIA | CIN | 74.1 | 5.69 | 3.92 | 1.57 | 22.2% | 15.70% | 6.3% | 0.97 | 1.76 |
| Shoemaker | LAA | TBR | 76.1 | 4.13 | 3.05 | 1.22 | 44.4% | 24.40% | 4.8% | 1.30 | 1.04 |
| Hellickson | TBR | LAA | |||||||||
| Happ | TOR | HOU | 88.1 | 4.58 | 4.33 | 1.51 | 30.8% | 18.30% | 9.3% | 1.12 | 1.03 |
| McHugh | HOU | TOR | 88.2 | 3.45 | 3.24 | 1.12 | 42.9% | 27.90% | 9.3% | 1.02 | 1.07 |
| Darnell | MIN | CWS | |||||||||
| Sale | CWS | MIN | 110.0 | 1.88 | 2.57 | 0.86 | 64.3% | 29.10% | 4.5% | 0.49 | 1.14 |
| Peralta | MIL | STL | 131.1 | 3.56 | 3.72 | 1.27 | 47.4% | 17.40% | 6.5% | 1.16 | 2.04 |
| Wainwright | STL | MIL | 149.2 | 1.92 | 3.49 | 0.96 | 84.2% | 20.90% | 5.8% | 0.24 | 1.46 |
| Guthrie | KCR | OAK | 132.0 | 4.70 | 4.45 | 1.38 | 42.1% | 14.70% | 6.5% | 1.30 | 1.11 |
| Gray | OAK | KCR | 139.0 | 2.65 | 3.57 | 1.18 | 60.0% | 21.10% | 8.5% | 0.45 | 2.15 |
| Volquez | PIT | ARI | 121.0 | 3.87 | 4.49 | 1.30 | 50.0% | 15.20% | 8.5% | 0.97 | 1.44 |
| Nuno | ARI | PIT | 101.1 | 4.97 | 4.20 | 1.36 | 18.8% | 18.10% | 7.3% | 1.69 | 0.84 |
| Hendricks | CHC | LAD | 19.1 | 2.33 | 3.77 | 1.19 | 0.0% | 18.20% | 7.8% | 0.93 | 2.33 |
| Haren | LAD | CHC | 122.1 | 4.49 | 3.82 | 1.31 | 30.0% | 17.60% | 5.0% | 1.54 | 1.32 |
| Minor | ATL | SDP | 93.0 | 5.23 | 3.73 | 1.56 | 50.0% | 20.50% | 6.4% | 1.55 | 1.10 |
| Stults | SDP | ATL | 110.1 | 5.22 | 4.37 | 1.45 | 26.3% | 14.60% | 5.7% | 1.63 | 1.12 |
Here is a look at the day’s slate of arms and how they might stack in their given matchups.
If a guy isn’t listed, he’s just kind of a neutral option – I’m not using him, but I’m not stacking against him, either.
GOLD BUYS:
These aren’t just low-cost guys with good matchups and/or venues, but you will also find expensive studs in here with great matchups.
Chris Sale CWS (v. MIN) – Sale has allowed just 11 runs in his last eight starts en route to a silly 1.72 ERA in 57.7 IP with 64 strikeouts. The latest of those masterpieces came against the Twins just five days ago and he went eight scoreless, allowing five hits and two walks while striking out 12. He opened the season with a 7.3 IP/3 ER performance against them, too. The Twins, meanwhile, have really fallen apart. They are scoring just 3.7 runs per games in their last 82 after a 5.6 RPG in 23 April games. Their .693 OPS against lefties is 22nd in the league.
Adam Wainwright STL (v. MIL) – With a 1.40 ERA in his last nine starts, Waino has pushed his season ERA below 2.00 in 149.3 IP. Outside of three hiccups, he has been daily fantasy gold with 10 scoreless outings of at least seven innings plus another three 8 IP/1 ER efforts. His strikeouts are down to 7.3 K9 this season (down from 8.2 last year) which definitely impacts his fantasy value, but he goes deep into almost every outing which keeps his volume of strikeouts on pace.
Sonny Gray OAK (v. KC) – Gray’s allowed a whopping four earned runs this month in 35 IP with 31 strikeouts. That’s good for a 1.03 ERA and five straight wins. Gray doesn’t live via the strikeout which is good against this team because the Royals just don’t do it. They are the toughest team in the league to strike out, but they also carry the seventh-highest groundball rate. And Gray just so happens to live via the groundball. While all of his pitches generate tons of grounders, the curveball is his money pitch. The Royals have a .424 OPS (second-worst) against righty curves with a 54% groundball rate (fifth-highest).
Doug Fister, WAS (v. PHI) – Fister has even lower strikeout numbers than Gray, and his groundball rate isn’t quite as good, yet his ERA and WHIP are right there with Gray (albeit in fewer innings because Fister was hurt for a bit). Most outlets seem to account for his modest strikeout rate in their pricing making him a strong value, especially if you’re looking for consistency and a high floor of production. You won’t always get that top 3 SP score, but he’ll rarely be outside of the top 10 on his given evening.
Mat Latos CIN (at MIA) – I’ve been expecting his strikeouts to tick up as he gets into the flow of his season (remember, this is only his ninth start) and we’ve seen it in two of his last three as he logged a strikeout per inning. At 5.6 K9 right now, I would project him to be at least two strikeouts better than that from here on out, while continuing to deliver huge ratios. The Marlins offense showed a microcosm of themselves on Thursday night, scoring one run – a Giancarlo Stanton homer – while striking out 12 times.
Matt Shoemaker LAA (at TB) – One rough game is weighing down Shoemaker’s season numbers quite a bit. His 4 IP/8 ER destruction in KC has his ERA at 4.13, but he has a 3.36 ERA in his other 72.3 IP. He’s already handled these Rays once, back in his second start of the season when he went 6 IP/1 ER against them with six strikeouts. Shoemaker’s price earns him gold status because he’s priced well below what someone with his upside would normally cost. Take his DraftKings price for example. He’s averaging 19 points per start over his last seven, which is right near Collin McHugh ’s 19.3 PPG and yet Shoemaker costs $6,800 compared to McHugh’s $8,200.
SILVER BUYS:
On some days the slate is so full that there are just tons of worthy options. When that happens, they can’t all be Best Buys, so I’ll split them into Gold and Silver buys. The Silver buys will carry a touch more risk than the Gold ones either because their price isn’t necessarily a value or they have a worthy, but not overwhelming matchup. They aren’t the prime values, but they are useful fallbacks if your budget forces you in a direction you hadn’t originally intended to follow.
Justin Verlander DET (v. COL) – At sites where his price has tumbled, he’s a viable SP2 at this point because of his upside. He still has that elite upside and if you can get it as the price of a fourth starter, that will pay huge dividends. The Rockies are without Troy Tulowitzki and they bring their .283 road wOBA vs. righties into Detroit.
Collin McHugh HOU (v. TOR) – McHugh’s seen that sub-3.00 ERA fade with a 6.06 ERA in his last three starts, but he still has 21 Ks in the 16.3 IP. That’s been the biggest surprise with McHugh, the strikeouts just haven’t stopped coming. His 10.4 K9 in 88.7 IP has been fantastic and it’s helped him salvage some scores out of otherwise modest efforts. Like his last game for example, when he had a 6.3 IP/4 ER, but 9 Ks in a loss to Miami.
Ryan Vogelsong SF (at NYM) – Vogey has been pretty uninspiring of late with a run of modest starts, but he’s shown that 2011-2012 upside again this year and he gets a Mets team that sits 24th in the league with a .294 wOBA against right-handers.
Wily Peralta MIL (at STL) – Peralta has dominated the Cards this year (as have a lot of pitchers) with just one earned run in 13.3 IP over two starts. Peralta has bounced back brilliantly from the 4.3 IP/9 ER collapse against Philly with a 1.37 ERA in 19.7 IP over his last three, including a 7 IP/0 ER demolition of the Cards. The Cards have a .222 OPS against his slider this year; they’ve hit righty sliders relatively well otherwise, though, with a .605 OPS (9th in MLB).
VALUE PLAYS:
These are guys aren’t inherently good buys, but they have a nice matchup and they’re likely to be very cheap so you can save with them and take the gamble that they come through with a strong effort.
Jeremy Hellickson TB (v. LAA) – Hellickson’s building back and though he hasn’t made it through five innings in any of his starts yet, he’s posted a strong 1.00 ERA with seven strikeouts in his nine innings of work. He’s a lottery ticket for sure, but the Angels come in a bit haggard. They scored just one run in 13 innings last night and they’ve had the 27th-best OPS against righties since the All-Star Break at .630.
Mike Minor ATL (at SD) – His name value will likely make him a popular flier pick for folks in this particular matchup. It’s also hard to ignore his 3.2 K:BB ratio, too. Of course, he also has a 1.6 HR/9 and .354 BABIP. Some of it has no doubt been poor fortune, but a lot of it has been the fact that Minor simply hasn’t pitched well. Being in San Diego will only add to his intrigue, but he did drop a solid 6.7 IP/3 ER effort with six strikeouts on the Padres his last time out on the 27th.
STAYAWAYS:
These guys should just be avoided either because of their matchup, talent-level, or both. These guys are often the ones you’ll want to stack against if you use that method.
- Jacob Turner MIA (v. CIN)
- Jeremy Guthrie KC (at OAK)
- Franklin Morales COL (at DET)
- Vidal Nuno ARI (v. PIT)
- Logan Darnell MIN (at CWS)
Pitcher Advanced Stats and Stats Against
| Pitcher | wOBA vs L | ERA vs L | wOBA vs R | ERA vs R | AVG | OPS | BABIP | FIP | AVG-A | Pit/G | Strk% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Williams | 0.350 | 6.11 | 0.360 | 4.91 | 0.261 | 0.747 | 0.329 | 4.32 | 0.288 | 33.56 | 17.4% |
| House | 0.318 | 4.67 | 0.397 | 4.41 | 0.275 | 0.749 | 0.343 | 4.69 | 0.312 | 80.60 | 14.4% |
| Hernandez | 0.309 | 2.94 | 0.330 | 5.06 | 0.239 | 0.685 | 0.260 | 4.74 | 0.236 | 85.36 | 14.5% |
| Fister | 0.313 | 2.38 | 0.280 | 2.96 | 0.241 | 0.662 | 0.269 | 3.87 | 0.249 | 97.64 | 14.8% |
| Elias | 0.292 | 3.62 | 0.324 | 4.50 | 0.258 | 0.733 | 0.287 | 4.09 | 0.240 | 94.00 | 21.2% |
| Chen | 0.339 | 4.30 | 0.336 | 3.80 | 0.248 | 0.644 | 0.301 | 4.32 | 0.275 | 96.05 | 16.8% |
| Morales | 0.313 | 5.40 | 0.409 | 5.08 | 0.284 | 0.785 | 0.306 | 5.81 | 0.286 | 68.29 | 15.4% |
| Verlander | 0.309 | 3.42 | 0.379 | 6.79 | 0.281 | 0.777 | 0.311 | 4.11 | 0.271 | 109.00 | 16.8% |
| Vogelsong | 0.340 | 3.90 | 0.322 | 3.98 | 0.235 | 0.673 | 0.330 | 3.32 | 0.270 | 95.10 | 19.8% |
| Niese | 0.282 | 4.23 | 0.317 | 2.91 | 0.248 | 0.699 | 0.297 | 3.63 | 0.255 | 91.00 | 17.5% |
| Capuano | 0.352 | 5.29 | 0.319 | 3.48 | 0.249 | 0.704 | 0.316 | 4.09 | 0.260 | 22.45 | 19.3% |
| Ranaudo | 0.246 | 0.689 | |||||||||
| Latos | 0.232 | 2.59 | 0.248 | 3.95 | 0.249 | 0.693 | 0.206 | 3.40 | 0.184 | 94.13 | 15.8% |
| Turner | 0.339 | 5.01 | 0.381 | 6.21 | 0.241 | 0.673 | 0.353 | 4.02 | 0.311 | 62.42 | 15.7% |
| Shoemaker | 0.350 | 4.78 | 0.298 | 3.49 | 0.250 | 0.699 | 0.318 | 3.62 | 0.261 | 69.00 | 24.4% |
| Hellickson | 0.258 | 0.727 | |||||||||
| Happ | 0.324 | 5.06 | 0.359 | 4.43 | 0.268 | 0.754 | 0.320 | 4.40 | 0.276 | 83.58 | 18.3% |
| McHugh | 0.292 | 2.91 | 0.280 | 4.04 | 0.271 | 0.781 | 0.256 | 3.62 | 0.199 | 99.33 | 27.9% |
| Darnell | 0.254 | 0.701 | |||||||||
| Sale | 0.158 | 0.00 | 0.252 | 2.44 | 0.250 | 0.693 | 0.262 | 2.30 | 0.192 | 104.44 | 29.1% |
| Peralta | 0.369 | 5.77 | 0.259 | 1.47 | 0.249 | 0.676 | 0.285 | 4.24 | 0.255 | 99.62 | 17.4% |
| Wainwright | 0.274 | 2.23 | 0.218 | 1.69 | 0.257 | 0.725 | 0.254 | 2.63 | 0.202 | 101.38 | 20.9% |
| Guthrie | 0.377 | 5.65 | 0.297 | 3.53 | 0.258 | 0.741 | 0.300 | 4.84 | 0.277 | 102.90 | 14.7% |
| Gray | 0.266 | 2.22 | 0.279 | 3.26 | 0.265 | 0.690 | 0.275 | 3.19 | 0.221 | 101.52 | 21.1% |
| Volquez | 0.317 | 4.15 | 0.314 | 3.65 | 0.253 | 0.694 | 0.267 | 4.48 | 0.243 | 89.86 | 15.2% |
| Nuno | 0.305 | 3.33 | 0.361 | 5.49 | 0.246 | 0.673 | 0.286 | 5.05 | 0.264 | 79.76 | 18.1% |
| Hendricks | 0.273 | 1.50 | 0.269 | 0.749 | 0.278 | 4.11 | 0.243 | 90.67 | 18.2% | ||
| Haren | 0.322 | 3.86 | 0.356 | 5.06 | 0.230 | 0.659 | 0.294 | 4.52 | 0.270 | 99.67 | 17.6% |
| Minor | 0.437 | 7.23 | 0.356 | 4.72 | 0.211 | 0.602 | 0.354 | 4.45 | 0.303 | 99.88 | 20.5% |
| Stults | 0.347 | 6.89 | 0.365 | 4.56 | 0.262 | 0.751 | 0.306 | 5.04 | 0.289 | 85.95 | 14.6% |
Starting Pitcher Salaries
Click the image below to view pitcher salaries by each daily fantasy site along with their percent of top statistics.
- Percent of Top (Top) – Player salary divided by the most expensive pitcher each day. So if Felix Hernandez is $9,000 on FanDuel and Justin Verlander is $4,500, Verlanders Top stat would be 50.
NOTE: Button for pitcher salary chart above opens in popup window