Daily Pitcher Breakdown: August 21st, 2013
Welcome to the Daily Pitcher Breakdown. I will focus on the top selections of the day and give you a breakdown on why they are set up for success against their given opponent. Sometimes there will be a best of the rest section featuring guys who are likely low-dollar options with some upside for those of you who prefer to load your lineup with hitting studs.
There will also be a contingent of the starters that you can ignore each day. They offer no discernible upside so they aren’t worth your time. Because it is baseball and a 162-game season, there are going to be times when guys from the ignore group go off, but we’re dealing with probabilities in the daily game so the goal is to give yourself the best odds for success, not find needle in the proverbial haystack that finally doesn’t poke you.
LEGEND
Stats Shown in Red Are BELOW AVERAGE
Stats Shown in White are AVERAGE
Stats Shown in Green Are ABOVE AVERAGE
Stats Shown in Blue Are ELITE
View descriptions of stats below and Legend FAQ
Performance and Talent Statistics: August 21st, 2013
| PLAYER | PERFORMANCE | TALENT | |||||||||
| PITCHER | TM | IP | ERA | SIERA | WHIP | GEM% | K% | BB% | HR/9 | G/F | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nicasio | COL | 120.1 | 4.94 | 4.50 | 1.40 | 26.1% | 16.1% | 8.7% | 1.05 | 1.40 | |
| Lee | PHI | 163.2 | 3.19 | 3.18 | 1.04 | 47.8% | 23.3% | 4.2% | 0.93 | 1.31 | |
| Hellickson | TBR | 146.2 | 4.91 | 4.05 | 1.29 | 36.0% | 18.4% | 6.1% | 1.10 | 1.03 | |
| Chen | BAL | 94.2 | 3.23 | 4.48 | 1.14 | 33.3% | 15.9% | 6.1% | 0.76 | 0.80 | |
| Correia | MIN | 140.2 | 4.61 | 4.49 | 1.44 | 37.5% | 13.2% | 5.5% | 1.34 | 1.33 | |
| Sanchez | DET | 133.0 | 2.50 | 3.15 | 1.13 | 66.7% | 26.6% | 7.2% | 0.41 | 1.37 | |
| Dickey | TOR | 168.1 | 4.49 | 4.33 | 1.28 | 42.3% | 17.9% | 8.0% | 1.44 | 1.02 | |
| Warren | NYY | 58.0 | 3.57 | 3.80 | 1.43 | First Start | 18.4% | 8.8% | 1.40 | 1.63 | |
| McCarthy | ARI | 83.2 | 4.84 | 4.18 | 1.43 | 28.6% | 14.5% | 4.7% | 0.86 | 1.50 | |
| Leake | CIN | 152.2 | 3.01 | 4.29 | 1.24 | 58.3% | 14.7% | 6.1% | 0.94 | 1.56 | |
| Greinke | LAD | 125.0 | 3.02 | 4.01 | 1.22 | 55.0% | 18.6% | 7.2% | 0.72 | 1.45 | |
| Eovaldi | MIA | 63.2 | 3.96 | 4.68 | 1.30 | 63.6% | 16.4% | 10.1% | 0.71 | 1.31 | |
| Ohlendorf | WAS | 34.0 | 1.85 | 3.63 | 1.03 | 100.0% | 21.3% | 6.6% | 0.53 | 0.77 | |
| Arrieta | CHC | 36.2 | 4.91 | 4.83 | 1.39 | 28.6% | 20.1% | 13.8% | 0.74 | 1.06 | |
| Bedard | HOU | 120.1 | 4.49 | 4.43 | 1.47 | 27.3% | 21.0% | 11.4% | 1.12 | 0.82 | |
| Holland | TEX | 168.0 | 2.95 | 3.63 | 1.23 | 56.0% | 22.6% | 7.1% | 0.64 | 1.12 | |
| Rienzo | CWS | 24.1 | 3.70 | 4.79 | 1.32 | 50.0% | 15.2% | 10.5% | 1.11 | 1.50 | |
| Guthrie | KCR | 160.2 | 4.15 | 4.82 | 1.39 | 52.0% | 12.8% | 7.3% | 1.34 | 1.22 | |
| Masterson | CLE | 175.2 | 3.59 | 3.33 | 1.19 | 53.8% | 24.0% | 8.9% | 0.67 | 2.41 | |
| Williams | LAA | 125.0 | 4.90 | 4.52 | 1.41 | 38.9% | 14.7% | 8.2% | 1.37 | 1.41 | |
STARTING PITCHER BREAKDOWN
Here is a look at the day’s slate of arms and how they might stack in their given matchups.
BEST BUYS:
These aren’t just low-cost guys with good matchups and/or venues, but you will also find expensive studs in here with great matchups. An ace facing another ace won’t find his way in here because the win probability for both is sliced significantly by facing each other.
Anibal Sanchez, DET (v. MIN) – The last time Sanchez faced MIN he went just 3.7 IP/2 ER after a 10-day layoff for a strained right shoulder. He went on the DL after that outing. He faced the Twins about three weeks before that and threw a shutout with 12 strikeouts. We could see similar devastation today as Sanchez is healthy and pitching brilliantly since the All-Star break with a 1.54 ERA in six starts with a 1.02 WHIP in 41 IP.
Zack Greinke, LAD (at MIA) – Greinke has quietly chiseled his ERA down to 3.02 thanks to an impressive eight-start run during which he’s posted a 1.45 ERA in 56 IP. He also has a 0.93 WHIP and 3.4 K/BB ratio in that span. Do I really need to lay out how poorly the Marlins hit?
Cliff Lee, PHI (v. COL) – Lee hasn’t been ultra-elite of late allowing at least 2 ER in 12 starts and 3+ ER in nine of those outings. Of course he still has 88 Ks and a 6.3 K/BB ratio in the 83 IP spanning those 12 starts so this isn’t an implication of poor play. The Rockies have the second-worst wOBA against lefties on the road this year at just .281 as they once against gone into their severe home/road splits.
Derek Holland, TEX (v. HOU) – The thing that’s killed Holland in the past is the disaster start. In each of the last two years he had eight outings of 5+ ER which essentially puts a cap on just how low an ERA can be during that season. He had 3.95 and 4.67 ERAs those seasons. This year he’s allowed more than 4 ER just once helping him to a 2.95 ERA in 168 IP this year. He’s only faced Houston once and managed a baseline quality start with six Ks in a no-decision.
GOOD BUYS:
This is where a lot of the high-priced big arms with decent or worse matchups will reside. Any top arm can thwart even the toughest lineup, but it’s not always the most sensible buy when they are among the most costly arms on the board. This is also where the ace v. ace matchups will be as they still have the potential for a big score, but just lack the high probability of the ever-important win.
Mike Leake, CIN (v. ARI) – Leake has shown a few cracks of late allowing 23 hits in 17 IP and going just 5 IP in two of those three starts. Of course he’d been virtually untouchable to that point so I’m not sure honing in on three starts is enough to crush him. The D’Backs hit lefties pretty well sitting 9th in wOBA against them both on the season and for the last month.
Wei-Yin Chen, BAL (v. TB) – Chen’s been really solid since returning from the DL with a 3.42 ERA in 47.3 IP, giving up more than 3 ER just once in seven starts. The Rays have been great vs. lefties on the season with the 2nd-best wOBA in baseball, but they are toting the 23rd-best wOBA against them this month at just .287.
Ross Ohlendorf, WAS (at CHC) / Jake Arrieta, CHC (v. WAS) – Ohlendorf has actually been great in his small 34 IP sample this year which includes a couple of great starts (6 IP/1 ER, 7 IP/1 ER) so surely he can handle the lowly Cubs with their .292 wOBA against righties (25th) this month, right? But can he get a win facing Arrieta?! Arrieta’s been excellent in his two Cubs starts allowing just one run in 13 IP including seven shutout against St. Louis. The Nats offense has been OK of late with a league average wOBA against righties, but it’s certainly not one you’re terrified of starting someone against.
USE CAUTION:
R.A. Dickey, TOR (at NYY) – How confident would you ever feel with him? He’s got a 7 IP/3 ER in New York back on April 28th. He’s got a 3.54 ERA and 1.11 WHIP in his last 10 going at least six innings in all of them with a 3.3 K/BB ratio. Of course he’s got two 4s, a 5 and a 6 ER outing in there, too. So, feeling lucky?
Justin Masterson, CLE (at LAA) – He’s been hit-or-miss lately with one of his most recent misses coming two starts ago against these Angels at home when he went 4.3 IP/4 ER with 11 base runners. They stacked five lefties against him that day and they could get up to six with a lineup switch. My biggest issue with Masterson is that he costs way too much given the lack of certainty around his performance. There are much wiser ways to spend your money today.
Jeremy Guthrie, KC (v. CWS) – He’s allowed 23 hits in his last two outings, but somehow managed to only give up 9 ER in 13 IP to the Red Sox and Tigers. Before that he had a shutout of the Twins. The White Sox are more Twins than Tigers/Red Sox and he’s actually owned the Sox as a Royal save his last outing against them when he went 2.3 IP/6 ER. His inconsistency is frustrating; he’s a secondary option at best today.
Andre Rienzo, CWS (at KC) – The Brazilian righty hasn’t been too bad in four starts as a big leaguer including a gem against the Tigers (6 IP/2 ER with 3 Ks). I liked how he bounced back against Minnesota facing them twice in a row. He went 5.3 IP/4 ER the first time and then 6 IP/1 ER four days later. The Royals have been solid against righties this month with a .316 wOBA that ranks ninth, but that’s not markedly better than their .303 for the season which ranks 22nd.
Jeremy Hellickson, TB (at BAL) – Hellickson has faced the O’s three times this year allowing 5, 8, and 0 ER, though he’s 2-0 as he got the win in that 8 ER outing. The 0 ER outing is the latest, coming in June right around the time Helly had gotten going for a bit. However he’s fallen on hard times again with an 8.00 ERA in his last four going fewer than five innings in three of them. I just think you’ll find many better options today.
Jerome Williams, LAA (v. CLE) – The Indians have been rancid against righties this month with an MLB-worst .273 wOBA, but Williams has a 5.73 ERA in six starts since the break going fewer than five in five of them.
Erik Bedard, HOU (at TEX) – He’s actually been OK against Texas this year with a 3.80 ERA and 1.17 WHIP in 21.3 IP, but he’s got a 4.49 ERA and 1.47 WHIP on the season. He’s just too dangerous despite the strikeout upside. The price isn’t bad, but chances of a win seem scant facing Holland.
NOT AT ALL CONFIDENT, HERE’S WHY:
Adam Warren, NYY (v. TOR) – It’s his first start of the season against a tough opponent and he’s struggled at home with a 1.6 HR/9. Though Jose Bautista is out of the lineup, it still packs a bunch and the uncertainty of Warren offers no upside.
Nate Eovaldi, MIA (v. LAD) – His inconsistency makes him tough to trust against the Dodgers, not to mention the fact that he’s worse at home with a 4.82 ERA and 1.0 K/BB ratio compared to 3.28 and 2.3 on the road.
Juan Nicasio, COL (at PHI) – The rare Rockie arm who is a disaster on the road: 5.76 ERA, 1.65 WHIP, and 1.3 K/BB ratio. Can we trust him in Philly against a just-OK Phillies lineup? I don’t see why we’d even try.
YOU CAN SAFELY IGNORE:
Couldn’t pay me to use these guys.
- Brandon McCarthy, ARI (at CIN)
- Kevin Correia, MIN (at DET)
ADVANCED METRICS: August 21st, 2013
| VS. L/R HANDED BATTERS | OPP vs L/R | OTHER ADVANCED STATS | |||||||||||
| PITCHER | wOBA L | ERA L | wOBA R | ERA R | AVG | OPS | BABIP | FIP | AVG-A | Pit/G | Strk% | ||
| Nicasio | 0.329 | 5.56 | 0.342 | 4.45 | 0.254 | 0.698 | 0.286 | 4.36 | 0.256 | 93.26 | 62.2% | ||
| Lee | 0.286 | 3.24 | 0.286 | 3.18 | 0.262 | 0.710 | 0.282 | 3.10 | 0.233 | 104.04 | 70.7% | ||
| Hellickson | 0.334 | 4.76 | 0.322 | 5.16 | 0.271 | 0.774 | 0.305 | 3.95 | 0.267 | 95.80 | 64.4% | ||
| Chen | 0.267 | 2.73 | 0.305 | 3.46 | 0.281 | 0.767 | 0.269 | 3.63 | 0.240 | 96.27 | 66.3% | ||
| Correia | 0.381 | 5.71 | 0.337 | 3.76 | 0.284 | 0.786 | 0.318 | 4.59 | 0.298 | 92.54 | 62.7% | ||
| Sanchez | 0.297 | 3.31 | 0.243 | 1.68 | 0.239 | 0.698 | 0.300 | 2.39 | 0.222 | 101.90 | 64.5% | ||
| Dickey | 0.352 | 5.00 | 0.305 | 4.05 | 0.243 | 0.685 | 0.267 | 4.78 | 0.245 | 103.42 | 64.6% | ||
| Warren | 0.398 | 3.82 | 0.296 | 3.29 | 0.254 | 0.749 | 0.302 | 4.66 | 0.269 | 41.50 | 61.2% | ||
| McCarthy | 0.339 | 4.53 | 0.351 | 5.21 | 0.247 | 0.714 | 0.335 | 3.73 | 0.299 | 93.93 | 68.0% | ||
| Leake | 0.314 | 2.55 | 0.313 | 3.41 | 0.256 | 0.715 | 0.278 | 4.05 | 0.254 | 94.67 | 63.8% | ||
| Greinke | 0.361 | 3.86 | 0.254 | 2.39 | 0.233 | 0.618 | 0.285 | 3.58 | 0.243 | 100.80 | 61.3% | ||
| Eovaldi | 0.297 | 3.81 | 0.322 | 4.11 | 0.272 | 0.732 | 0.266 | 3.95 | 0.232 | 91.45 | 64.2% | ||
| Ohlendorf | 0.235 | 2.08 | 0.274 | 1.71 | 0.243 | 0.704 | 0.250 | 2.89 | 0.205 | 53.90 | 64.9% | ||
| Arrieta | 0.323 | 4.19 | 0.335 | 5.94 | 0.253 | 0.712 | 0.263 | 4.40 | 0.216 | 90.57 | 60.3% | ||
| Bedard | 0.354 | 5.06 | 0.344 | 4.34 | 0.266 | 0.739 | 0.303 | 4.40 | 0.253 | 89.08 | 62.0% | ||
| Holland | 0.280 | 2.85 | 0.312 | 3.01 | 0.246 | 0.691 | 0.307 | 2.99 | 0.245 | 103.76 | 65.7% | ||
| Rienzo | 0.282 | 3.63 | 0.391 | 3.86 | 0.259 | 0.696 | 0.243 | 4.81 | 0.226 | 97.00 | 58.8% | ||
| Guthrie | 0.384 | 4.87 | 0.292 | 3.41 | 0.253 | 0.689 | 0.287 | 4.95 | 0.274 | 102.68 | 63.1% | ||
| Masterson | 0.319 | 4.08 | 0.243 | 2.94 | 0.273 | 0.759 | 0.285 | 3.38 | 0.222 | 104.62 | 63.5% | ||
| Williams | 0.367 | 5.85 | 0.335 | 4.03 | 0.249 | 0.722 | 0.287 | 4.88 | 0.268 | 67.72 | 63.0% | ||
- Opp Avg vs. L/R – Opponent Batting Average vs. Left/Right Handed Pitching
- Opp OPS vs. L/R – Opponent On Base + Slugging Percentage vs. Left/Right Handed Pitching
- wOBA-L and wOBA-R – Pitcher Weighted On Base Percentage Against vs. Left/Right Handed Batters
- ERA-L and ERA-R – Pitcher Earned Run Average against Left/Right Handed Batters
- BABIP – Pitcher Batting Average Against on Balls In Play
- FIP – Fielding Independent Pitching
- Pit/G – Average Pitches Thrown Per Game
- Strk% – Percentage of Pitches for Strikes
Starting Pitcher Salaries: August 21st, 2013
Click the image below to view pitcher salaries by each daily fantasy site along with their percent of top statistics.
- Percent of Top (Top) – Player salary divided by the most expensive pitcher each day. So if Felix Hernandez is $9,000 on FanDuel and Justin Verlander is $4,500, Verlanders Top stat would be 50.
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