Daily Pitcher Breakdown: July 10th
The Daily Pitcher Breakdown goes in-depth to look at nearly every pitching option, with a focus on the best targets for each night. Sometimes there will be a best of the rest section featuring guys who are likely low-dollar options with some upside for those of you who prefer to load your lineup with hitting studs.
There will also be a contingent of the starters that you can ignore each day. They offer no discernible upside so they aren’t worth your time. Because it is baseball and a 162-game season, there are going to be times when guys from the ignore group go off, but we’re dealing with probabilities in the daily game so the goal is to give yourself the best odds for success, not find needle in the proverbial haystack that finally doesn’t poke you.
LEGEND
Stats Shown in Red Are BELOW AVERAGE
Stats Shown in White are AVERAGE
Stats Shown in Green Are ABOVE AVERAGE
Stats Shown in Blue Are ELITE
View descriptions of stats below and Legend FAQ
Daily Pitcher Chart
| Pitcher | TM | OPP | IP | ERA | SIERA | WHIP | GEM% | K% | BB% | HR/9 | G/F |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hendricks | CHC | CIN | |||||||||
| Bailey | CIN | CHC | 112.2 | 4.15 | 3.52 | 1.35 | 30.8% | 21.3% | 7.5% | 1.04 | 1.80 |
| Buchanan | PHI | MIL | 52.1 | 4.82 | 4.38 | 1.36 | 15.0% | 7.1% | 1.38 | 1.33 | |
| Garza | MIL | PHI | 116.2 | 3.78 | 4.07 | 1.22 | 23.1% | 18.4% | 7.4% | 0.62 | 1.15 |
| Kazmir | OAK | SFG | 110.1 | 2.53 | 3.34 | 1.01 | 61.5% | 22.8% | 6.0% | 0.82 | 1.32 |
| Hudson | SFG | OAK | 113.2 | 2.53 | 3.28 | 1.05 | 75.0% | 16.3% | 3.5% | 0.48 | 2.46 |
| Quintana | CWS | BOS | 112.1 | 3.20 | 3.50 | 1.24 | 46.2% | 21.5% | 6.9% | 0.48 | 1.59 |
| Lester | BOS | CWS | 122 | 2.73 | 3.19 | 1.15 | 46.2% | 24.6% | 5.8% | 0.59 | 1.12 |
| Gonzalez | WAS | BAL | 76.2 | 3.52 | 3.62 | 1.21 | 44.4% | 24.8% | 9.5% | 0.59 | 0.99 |
| Chen | BAL | WAS | 98.1 | 4.12 | 3.96 | 1.30 | 38.5% | 16.7% | 4.4% | 1.46 | 1.12 |
| Phelps | NYY | CLE | 83 | 4.01 | 4.10 | 1.35 | 14.3% | 19.7% | 9.2% | 1.08 | 1.08 |
| House | CLE | NYY | 40.1 | 4.24 | 3.33 | 1.47 | 25.0% | 14.4% | 5.2% | 1.34 | 3.61 |
| Harang | ATL | NYM | 110.1 | 3.67 | 4.08 | 1.40 | 76.9% | 19.8% | 8.5% | 0.65 | 1.02 |
| Colon | NYM | ATL | 113.2 | 4.04 | 3.83 | 1.18 | 41.7% | 17.3% | 3.6% | 1.11 | 1.05 |
| Volquez | PIT | STL | 102 | 3.88 | 4.36 | 1.24 | 33.3% | 15.9% | 8.2% | 1.06 | 1.41 |
| Miller | STL | PIT | 104 | 4.15 | 4.88 | 1.45 | 23.1% | 16.0% | 11.1% | 1.04 | 1.07 |
| Santiago | LAA | TEX | 58 | 4.50 | 4.12 | 1.36 | 25.0% | 21.5% | 9.6% | 1.09 | 0.67 |
| Lewis | TEX | LAA | 81.2 | 5.51 | 4.10 | 1.72 | 19.1% | 6.9% | 1.10 | 0.71 | |
| Smyly | DET | KCR | 81 | 3.89 | 4.03 | 1.37 | 44.4% | 19.7% | 7.8% | 1.22 | 0.86 |
| Guthrie | KCR | DET | 116.1 | 4.02 | 4.39 | 1.29 | 46.2% | 14.8% | 5.9% | 1.32 | 1.04 |
| Kershaw | LAD | SDP | 87.1 | 1.85 | 1.70 | 0.87 | 50.0% | 34.3% | 3.6% | 0.41 | 2.35 |
| Pino | MIN | SEA | 21.2 | 4.98 | 4.20 | 1.27 | 16.7% | 5.6% | 0.42 | 0.82 | |
| Wilhelmsen | SEA | MIN | 47 | 2.49 | 3.58 | 1.11 | 20.8% | 11.5% | 0.57 | 2.45 |
Here is a look at the day’s slate of arms and how they might stack in their given matchups.
If a guy isn’t listed, he’s just kind of a neutral option – I’m not using him, but I’m not stacking against him, either.
BEST BUYS:
These aren’t just low-cost guys with good matchups and/or venues, but you will also find expensive studs in here with great matchups.
Clayton Kershaw LAD (v. SD) – Oh my, this is unfair.
Scott Kazmir OAK (at SF) – At this point, the only real concern with Kazmir is the injury threat that looms above all pitchers. His talent is not only back, but better than ever. He spent the early part of the season succeeding with a control-oriented approach that cost him some strikeouts, but he’s found a way to mix his newfound control with his past strikeout prowess yielding 54 Ks and just 13 BBs in his last 50.7 IP. He also has a 2.49 ERA in those eight starts. He gets the Giants at the perfect time, too.
Jon Lester BOS (v. CWS) – Lester’s breakout season has been a bit under the radar because the Red Sox have been so poor everywhere else with a paltry 39-51 record. His strikeout rate is at a four-year high of 9.0 K/9 while his walk rate has never been better at 2.1. His 2.73 ERA is fully supported by his skills. The White Sox have not hit lefties well this year and this doesn’t appear to be the matchup to turn that around.
Homer Bailey CIN (v. CHC) – Is he finally on sturdy ground? Bailey has teased at getting out of his funk, but he carried a 5.04 ERA through the first two months of the season before enjoying a strong June and start to July. He has a 2.98 ERA in his last seven with a 1.14 WHIP and 46 Ks in 48.3 IP of work. The Cubs actually got him for 4 ER in 5.3 IP during this seven start stretch as his worst outing in the bunch, but I’m trusting that Bailey is back.
Jose Quintana CWS (at BOS) – Q is one of my favorite high-floor guys. I know I preach the value of volatility in the daily game, but that’s with value plays who you inherently know have substantial risk to their name. A high-floor guy in the mid or upper tier can be very useful if you all-but-know you’re going to get at least a quality start out of the effort. Sure, no pitcher delivers that EVERY time, but Quintana has done it 15 of 18 times and 11 of those were much better than a baseline 6 IP/3 ER quality start. Quintana has shown his upside of late with a 0.94 ERA in his last four starts including a 31/7 K:BB ratio in 28.7 IP.
Gio Gonzalez WAS (at BAL) – Gonzalez just needed a little tune-up off the DL and since his 5 IP/4 ER return against Houston, he has run off 21 scoreless with just nine hits allowed and 19 strikeouts. The O’s are a tough matchup for anyone and this will be a good challenge for Gonzalez as two of those three starts in his mini-run have come against the Cubs.
Tim Hudson SF (v. OAK) – Hudson jumped off track for a bit in June with back-to-back thrashings, but he was bound to see that ERA rise sooner than later. He has gotten back in line with a pair of sharp outings that has included a 10/0 K:BB ratio in 14 IP. I’m not sure how much run support he will get, but I think he can tamp down his former franchise a bit, especially at home.
Matt Garza MIL (v. PHI) – Garza has been solid this year. He has a few 4-5 ER outings, but he has done a good job avoiding that ERA-crushing outing this year and he’s been really sharp of late with a 2.36 ERA in his last seven, capped off by a shutout of the Reds. Heck, if you just lop off that 5.00 ERA in six April starts, Garza has a 3.24 ERA in 80.7 IP with a passable 2.5 K:BB ratio. He walks a few too many, but he stifles hits and has big strikeout potential, evidenced by a couple of 9 K outings and seven of at least 7 Ks.
VALUE PLAYS:
These are guys aren’t inherently good buys, but they have a nice matchup and they’re likely to be very cheap so you can save with them and take the gamble that they come through with a strong effort.
David Phelps NYY (at CLE) – Phelps has the value play volatility I actually like in a pitch. Sure, he can get thrashed – he has 7 and 6 ER outings within his last six starts – but he’s still really cheap and when he’s on, he can be great. He hasn’t allowed more than 2 ER in any of the four starts surrounding those 7 and 6 ER duds.
Edinson Volquez PIT (at STL) – Volquez has a 3.10 ERA in his last nine which is made more impressive by the fact that 8 ER came in one horrid outing against the Reds. If you take that start out of the mix, he has a 1.80 ERA in 50 IP. The Cards offer a great chance to stay hot.
STAYAWAYS:
These guys should just be avoided either because of their matchup, talent-level, or both. These guys are often the ones you’ll want to stack against if you use that method.
- Aaron Harang ATL (at NYM) – The wheels have slowly fallen off. After his excellent 71 Ks and 19 BBs (3.7 K:BB ratio) through May, he has 22 Ks and 21 BBs in seven starts dating back to June 1st. He still has a modest, but hardly awful 4.23 ERA in that stretch, but that kind of K:BB ratio is destined for trouble.
- Shelby Miller STL (v. PIT)
- Yohan Pino MIN (at SEA)
Pitcher Advanced Stats and Stats Against
| Pitcher | wOBA vs L | ERA vs L | wOBA vs R | ERA vs R | AVG | OPS | BABIP | FIP | AVG-A | Pit/G | Strk% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hendricks | 0.250 | 0.688 | |||||||||
| Bailey | 0.342 | 4.19 | 0.274 | 3.42 | 0.230 | 0.652 | 1.350 | 4.15 | 0.138 | 101.00 | 65.1% |
| Buchanan | 0.309 | 5.91 | 0.375 | 4.11 | 0.263 | 0.732 | 1.360 | 4.82 | 0.079 | 93.22 | 61.3% |
| Garza | 0.313 | 4.01 | 0.295 | 3.64 | 0.235 | 0.646 | 1.220 | 3.78 | 0.11 | 99.78 | 66.0% |
| Kazmir | 0.268 | 3.19 | 0.312 | 3.53 | 0.253 | 0.733 | 1.010 | 2.53 | 0.168 | 93.72 | 65.9% |
| Hudson | 0.307 | 3.65 | 0.267 | 2.98 | 0.259 | 0.739 | 1.050 | 2.53 | 0.128 | 92.82 | 67.1% |
| Quintana | 0.302 | 3.32 | 0.301 | 3.46 | 0.251 | 0.704 | 1.240 | 3.20 | 0.146 | 105.56 | 62.4% |
| Lester | 0.294 | 3.17 | 0.306 | 3.47 | 0.240 | 0.678 | 1.150 | 2.73 | 0.187 | 109.83 | 64.3% |
| Gonzalez | 0.271 | 3.41 | 0.304 | 3.44 | 0.265 | 0.745 | 1.200 | 3.52 | 0.152 | 98.46 | 62.3% |
| Chen | 0.328 | 3.90 | 0.342 | 4.18 | 0.284 | 0.757 | 1.300 | 4.12 | 0.123 | 96.29 | 65.3% |
| Phelps | 0.320 | 3.86 | 0.347 | 5.43 | 0.259 | 0.739 | 1.350 | 4.01 | 0.106 | 67.43 | 61.1% |
| House | 0.321 | 3.00 | 0.390 | 4.97 | 0.257 | 0.689 | 1.460 | 4.24 | 0.092 | 77.88 | 66.3% |
| Harang | 0.355 | 4.90 | 0.318 | 4.44 | 0.237 | 0.671 | 1.400 | 3.67 | 0.113 | 103.00 | 63.6% |
| Colon | 0.300 | 3.33 | 0.294 | 3.01 | 0.240 | 0.660 | 1.180 | 4.04 | 0.137 | 100.00 | 68.2% |
| Volquez | 0.357 | 5.43 | 0.322 | 4.72 | 0.250 | 0.668 | 1.240 | 3.88 | 0.077 | 87.33 | 64.5% |
| Miller | 0.341 | 4.41 | 0.284 | 2.82 | 0.259 | 0.718 | 1.450 | 4.15 | 0.049 | 92.39 | 62.4% |
| Santiago | 0.320 | 3.79 | 0.331 | 3.91 | 0.275 | 0.755 | 1.360 | 4.50 | 0.12 | 73.71 | 62.4% |
| Lewis | 0.428 | 6.23 | 0.344 | 5.09 | 0.257 | 0.730 | 1.710 | 5.51 | 0.122 | 96.07 | 64.5% |
| Smyly | 0.191 | 1.75 | 0.363 | 4.15 | 0.255 | 0.675 | 1.370 | 3.89 | 0.119 | 86.88 | 64.8% |
| Guthrie | 0.380 | 4.75 | 0.279 | 3.25 | 0.276 | 0.769 | 1.290 | 4.02 | 0.089 | 103.56 | 65.0% |
| Kershaw | 0.203 | 1.16 | 0.242 | 2.03 | 0.204 | 0.601 | 0.870 | 1.85 | 0.308 | 94.69 | 69.5% |
| Pino | 0.339 | 6.75 | 0.255 | 3.65 | 0.241 | 0.691 | 1.250 | 4.98 | 0.111 | 90.00 | 68.3% |
| Wilhelmsen | 0.306 | 3.83 | 0.247 | 3.02 | 0.243 | 0.686 | 1.110 | 2.49 | 0.094 | 22.18 | 61.6% |
Starting Pitcher Salaries
Click the image below to view pitcher salaries by each daily fantasy site along with their percent of top statistics.
- Percent of Top (Top) – Player salary divided by the most expensive pitcher each day. So if Felix Hernandez is $9,000 on FanDuel and Justin Verlander is $4,500, Verlanders Top stat would be 50.
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