Daily Pitcher Breakdown: July 28th
The Daily Pitcher Breakdown goes in-depth to look at nearly every pitching option, with a focus on the best targets for each night. Sometimes there will be a best of the rest section featuring guys who are likely low-dollar options with some upside for those of you who prefer to load your lineup with hitting studs.
There will also be a contingent of the starters that you can ignore each day. They offer no discernible upside so they aren’t worth your time. Because it is baseball and a 162-game season, there are going to be times when guys from the ignore group go off, but we’re dealing with probabilities in the daily game so the goal is to give yourself the best odds for success, not find needle in the proverbial haystack that finally doesn’t poke you.
LEGEND
Stats Shown in Red Are BELOW AVERAGE
Stats Shown in White are AVERAGE
Stats Shown in Green Are ABOVE AVERAGE
Stats Shown in Blue Are ELITE
View descriptions of stats below and Legend FAQ
Daily Pitcher Chart
| Pitcher | TM | OPP | IP | ERA | SIERA | WHIP | GEM% | K% | BB% | HR/9 | G/F |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lane | SDP | ATL | 4.1 | 0.00 | 1.49 | 0.24 | 28.6% | 0.0% | 0.00 | 2.50 | |
| Santana | ATL | SDP | 103 | 3.93 | 3.43 | 1.27 | 38.9% | 21.8% | 6.9% | 0.70 | 1.74 |
| Dickey | TOR | BOS | 119 | 3.86 | 4.20 | 1.32 | 47.6% | 19.2% | 9.1% | 1.21 | 1.12 |
| Buchholz | BOS | TOR | 70.2 | 6.11 | 4.50 | 1.67 | 33.3% | 15.4% | 7.7% | 1.53 | 1.11 |
| Anderson | ARI | CIN | 54.1 | 3.64 | 3.95 | 1.40 | 40.0% | 20.0% | 8.1% | 1.49 | 1.21 |
| Bailey | CIN | ARI | 112.2 | 4.15 | 3.52 | 1.35 | 31.6% | 21.3% | 7.5% | 1.04 | 1.80 |
| Burnett | PHI | NYM | 124 | 3.92 | 4.10 | 1.34 | 38.1% | 19.1% | 9.9% | 0.65 | 1.79 |
| Colon | NYM | PHI | 113.2 | 4.04 | 3.83 | 1.18 | 42.1% | 17.3% | 3.6% | 1.11 | 1.05 |
| Lohse | MIL | TBR | 119 | 3.18 | 3.86 | 1.10 | 50.0% | 17.8% | 4.7% | 0.83 | 1.11 |
| Odorizzi | TBR | MIL | 94.1 | 4.10 | 3.40 | 1.35 | 36.8% | 26.7% | 9.1% | 0.86 | 0.78 |
| Zimmermann | WAS | MIA | 109.2 | 2.79 | 3.29 | 1.20 | 52.6% | 21.4% | 4.5% | 0.49 | 1.44 |
| Eovaldi | MIA | WAS | 112.2 | 3.75 | 3.91 | 1.25 | 50.0% | 17.1% | 4.7% | 0.64 | 1.16 |
| Flande | COL | CHC | 14.2 | 7.36 | 4.30 | 1.76 | 10.5% | 6.0% | 0.61 | 2.31 | |
| Wada | CHC | COL | 5 | 0.00 | 4.03 | 1.20 | 15.8% | 5.3% | 0.00 | 1.40 | |
| Phelps | NYY | TEX | 83 | 4.01 | 4.10 | 1.35 | 42.9% | 19.7% | 9.2% | 1.08 | 1.08 |
| Darvish | TEX | NYY | 109.1 | 2.63 | 3.00 | 1.19 | 55.6% | 29.8% | 8.7% | 0.66 | 0.80 |
| Chavez | OAK | HOU | 109 | 3.06 | 3.60 | 1.26 | 52.6% | 22.1% | 7.4% | 0.74 | 1.29 |
| Oberholtzer | HOU | OAK | 63.2 | 4.66 | 4.14 | 1.42 | 41.7% | 17.3% | 6.1% | 0.71 | 0.92 |
| Worley | PIT | SFG | 32.2 | 3.03 | 3.90 | 1.09 | 40.0% | 16.2% | 3.9% | 0.83 | 1.26 |
| Bumgarner | SFG | PIT | 120.2 | 3.36 | 3.16 | 1.24 | 47.6% | 24.4% | 6.3% | 0.67 | 1.48 |
Here is a look at the day’s slate of arms and how they might stack in their given matchups.
If a guy isn’t listed, he’s just kind of a neutral option – I’m not using him, but I’m not stacking against him, either.
GOLD BUYS:
These aren’t just low-cost guys with good matchups and/or venues, but you will also find expensive studs in here with great matchups.
Yu Darvish TEX (v. NYY) – He hasn’t been special in his last seven with 4.61 ERA in 41 IP, but the 58 Ks are keeping his scores reasonable even when it doesn’t go well (for example, he fanned 8 Astros despite a 6 IP/6 ER dud). He was rained out in NYY during his last outing after allowing 2 ER in 4.3 IP. He got a complete game for it, though, so he added some points at the sites that reward that kind of thing. I’m not at all worried about this “struggle”.
Homer Bailey CIN (v. ARI) – “I’m not using a pitcher with a 4.22 ERA as my SP1!” says the discerning daily gamer. However, Bailey had a 5.34 ERA through his first 10 starts of the season and he’s been chiseling that down over his last 10 with a cool 3.26 ERA in 66.3 IP. He’s got 58 Ks and a 2.9 K:BB ratio during that run. He had a 1.4 HR/9 in those first 10, compared to 0.95 in these last 10. His Ks are a little down in comparison, but otherwise he’s mirroring last year in these 10 starts.
Jesse Chavez OAK (at HOU) – He went 7+ IP in four of his first eight starts this year, but he’s done so just once in his last nine. While the innings are down, he’s still pitching well. His 3.61 ERA has been solid with only Detroit really knocking him around (5 IP/5 ER), and he’s registered 50 Ks and a 2.5 K:BB ratio in 52.3 IP. This will be his second straight start against Houston and I’d gladly take a repeat of his 5.7 IP/2 ER effort with 7 Ks from July 23rd (well if he wants to go six or seven innings, I’d be OK with that!)
Jake Odorizzi TB (v. MIL) – Odorizzi is absolutely on fire of late. He has been a strikeout beast this year with 124 in 106.7 IP, but he came out of May with a 5.13 ERA through 11 starts. In the last two months, he has a 2.83 ERA in 54 IP with 61 Ks and just 17 BBs (3.6 K:BB ratio). Milwaukee’s righty-loaded lineup is just 21st in OPS against righties this month with a .679, down from their .733 season total. Odorizzi excels against righties with a .659 OPS against them and it’s at .611 in these last two months. The strikeout excellence moved him from Silver to Gold despite a more than adequate opponent.
SILVER BUYS:
On some days the slate is so full that there are just tons of worthy options. When that happens, they can’t all be Best Buys, so I’ll split them into Gold and Silver buys. The Silver buys will carry a touch more risk than the Gold ones either because their price isn’t necessarily a value or they have a worthy, but not overwhelming matchup. They aren’t the prime values, but they are useful fallbacks if your budget forces you in a direction you hadn’t originally intended to follow.
Jordan Zimmermann WAS (at MIA) – He’s been uneven this year, vacillating between great and oddly hittable. He’s sort of combining the two right now over his last six starts with a 3.78 ERA (which isn’t great, but definitely useful) and 36 Ks in 33.3 IP, but also 41 hits allowed. With Miami’s offense in the tank, Zimm can’t be totally ignored, but they’ve hit him well in two of three starts this year and I’m just not feeling as confident as I usually do about him.
Kyle Lohse MIL (at TB) – He’s quietly been very good this year, but he gets a red-hot Rays team so I had to drop him into the Silvers. Their .738 OPS against righties in July is seventh in the league, well above their .694 from the first three months. Now .738 to .694 isn’t a major difference for a player, but for an entire team, it’s a substantial jump. Lohse doesn’t regularly miss tons of bats, as evidenced by his back-to-back 3 K games the last two times out, but he had back-to-back 8 K efforts before that and he has four other 8+ K games this year so he can miss a bunch of bats in a given outing. Don’t sleep on him. But I’m not building my lineup around him given this matchup.
Madison Bumgarner SF (v. PIT) – Bumgarner actually has a 5.22 ERA at home this year, having allowed at least 4 ER in seven of his 10 starts at AT&T Park. The Pirates are 27th in the league with .668 OPS against lefties, but given Bumgarner’s cost, I’m not sure I want to mess with this home ERA. He’s still been an ace on the road (1.75 ERA in 12 starts) and AT&T Park is pitcher-friendly so I’m confused by his struggles. I’d bet on him to correct those problems in the long-term (rest of the season), but I’m unlikely to consider him at his huge price today. He’s probably Bronze Buy to be honest, but I don’t have a section for that.
VALUE PLAYS:
These are guys aren’t inherently good buys, but they have a nice matchup and they’re likely to be very cheap so you can save with them and take the gamble that they come through with a strong effort.
Bartolo Colon NYM (v. PHI) – I’ve run out of ways to say the same stuff with Colon. He’s volatile, but he’s so good when he’s on that he’s worth the gamble. Just look at his July for a microcosm of what to expect: 7 IP/5 ER, 8 IP/3 ER, 5 IP/4 ER, and 7.3 IP/2 ER. He dropped a 7 IP/2 ER on the Phillies back on June 2nd and they’ve been unimpressive all year with a .660 OPS against righties (28th).
Vance Worley PIT (at SF) – The rookie year Worley is back… well, a refined version of him. I meant that comp mostly from a results standpoint, but from skills-wise he has traded strikeouts for fewer walks. He had an 8.1 K9 in 2011, but also a 3.1 BB9 (2.6 K:BB ratio). He’s dropped two strikeouts off of his rate to an even 6.0, but he cut his walk rate in half at 1.5 BB9 yielding an excellent 3.9 K:BB ratio. San Francisco is brutal at home against righties with a .658 OPS (27th) and it’s been much worse lately with a .543 in July – baseball’s worst total (yes, this include SD. In fact, the Padres are ninth… NINTH BEST!).
David Phelps NYY (at TEX) – He’s probably not winning you your contest, but I really like him as a solid low-dollar SP2. He’s allowed two or fewer earned runs in each of his last five, yielding a 2.40 ERA in 30 IP with a 2.4 K:BB ratio. He opposed Darvish in that game called for rain after holding the Rangers to just 1 ER in 5 IP. The Rangers aren’t any better at home than they are on the road with identical .678 OPS totals against righties.
Tsuyoshi Wada CHC (v. COL) – This is the hero play of the day, but he costs nothing and the Rockies really drop on the road against lefties. They are second in OPS against lefties at home, but they dip to 20th on the road with a .699 OPS. He’s the biggest risk in the value plays with just two MLB starts as a 33-year old, but I think you could pair him with Darvish and still afford plenty of bats or pair him with a middle-tier guy and stack your lineup with several stud bats.
STAYAWAYS:
These guys should just be avoided either because of their matchup, talent-level, or both. These guys are often the ones you’ll want to stack against if you use that method.
- Nathan Eovaldi MIA (v. WAS) – One of my favorites coming into the year has been in a severe downturn of late. Make him show you something.
- Brett Oberholtzer HOU (v. OAK)
- Yohan Flande COL (at CHC)
Pitcher Advanced Stats and Stats Against
| Pitcher | wOBA vs L | ERA vs L | wOBA vs R | ERA vs R | AVG | OPS | BABIP | FIP | AVG-A | Pit/G | Strk% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lane | 0.000 | 0.127 | 0.261 | 0.747 | 0.230 | 1.27 | 0.286 | 24.50 | 71.4% | ||
| Santana | 0.326 | 3.54 | 0.277 | 3.62 | 0.218 | 0.611 | 1.270 | 3.18 | 0.149 | 96.44 | 63.3% |
| Dickey | 0.330 | 4.10 | 0.311 | 4.18 | 0.239 | 0.670 | 1.320 | 4.54 | 0.101 | 105.16 | 64.7% |
| Buchholz | 0.298 | 3.28 | 0.301 | 3.63 | 0.266 | 0.768 | 1.660 | 5.10 | 0.077 | 93.31 | 63.4% |
| Anderson | 0.306 | 3.81 | 0.401 | 3.49 | 0.250 | 0.688 | 1.400 | 4.70 | 0.119 | 92.80 | 62.8% |
| Bailey | 0.342 | 4.21 | 0.273 | 3.44 | 0.258 | 0.702 | 1.350 | 3.87 | 0.138 | 101.00 | 65.1% |
| Burnett | 0.345 | 4.66 | 0.264 | 2.84 | 0.237 | 0.671 | 1.340 | 3.89 | 0.092 | 104.21 | 60.7% |
| Colon | 0.301 | 3.43 | 0.289 | 3.05 | 0.235 | 0.646 | 1.180 | 3.80 | 0.137 | 100.00 | 68.2% |
| Lohse | 0.304 | 3.49 | 0.295 | 3.10 | 0.247 | 0.688 | 1.100 | 3.56 | 0.131 | 99.56 | 66.2% |
| Odorizzi | 0.320 | 3.96 | 0.296 | 4.14 | 0.263 | 0.732 | 1.350 | 3.29 | 0.176 | 97.61 | 63.0% |
| Zimmermann | 0.305 | 3.38 | 0.277 | 3.02 | 0.254 | 0.706 | 1.190 | 2.71 | 0.169 | 90.67 | 68.7% |
| Eovaldi | 0.341 | 4.12 | 0.284 | 3.44 | 0.234 | 0.670 | 1.240 | 3.32 | 0.125 | 100.89 | 66.2% |
| Flande | 0.330 | 6.35 | 0.418 | 8.00 | 0.265 | 0.755 | 1.700 | 3.87 | 0.045 | 88.67 | 61.3% |
| Wada | 0.222 | 0.308 | 0.278 | 0.788 | 1.200 | 2.52 | 0.105 | 87.00 | 66.7% | ||
| Phelps | 0.322 | 3.81 | 0.341 | 5.28 | 0.256 | 0.690 | 1.350 | 4.38 | 0.106 | 67.43 | 61.1% |
| Darvish | 0.304 | 3.20 | 0.246 | 2.40 | 0.250 | 0.693 | 1.190 | 2.74 | 0.211 | 106.06 | 63.1% |
| Chavez | 0.306 | 3.34 | 0.284 | 3.53 | 0.224 | 0.657 | 1.260 | 3.38 | 0.146 | 98.06 | 66.2% |
| Oberholtzer | 0.307 | 3.53 | 0.312 | 3.72 | 0.245 | 0.719 | 1.410 | 3.52 | 0.112 | 93.18 | 66.0% |
| Worley | 0.408 | 7.08 | 0.363 | 4.25 | 0.240 | 0.670 | 1.070 | 3.57 | 0.123 | 89.20 | 70.4% |
| Bumgarner | 0.239 | 1.98 | 0.293 | 3.38 | 0.248 | 0.670 | 1.230 | 2.92 | 0.18 | 102.47 | 66.2% |
Starting Pitcher Salaries
Click the image below to view pitcher salaries by each daily fantasy site along with their percent of top statistics.
- Percent of Top (Top) – Player salary divided by the most expensive pitcher each day. So if Felix Hernandez is $9,000 on FanDuel and Justin Verlander is $4,500, Verlanders Top stat would be 50.
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