Daily Pitcher Breakdown: June 14th, 2013

Welcome to the Daily Pitcher Breakdown. I will focus on the top selections of the day and give you a breakdown on why they are set up for success against their given opponent. Sometimes there will be a best of the rest section featuring guys who are likely low-dollar options with some upside for those of you who prefer to load your lineup with hitting studs.

There will also be a contingent of the starters that you can ignore each day. They offer no discernible upside so they aren’t worth your time. Because it is baseball and a 162-game season, there are going to be times when guys from the ignore group go off, but we’re dealing with probabilities in the daily game so the goal is to give yourself the best odds for success, not find needle in the proverbial haystack that finally doesn’t poke you.

LEGEND
Stats Shown in Red Are BELOW AVERAGE
Stats Shown in White are AVERAGE
Stats Shown in Green Are ABOVE AVERAGE
Stats Shown in Blue Are ELITE

View descriptions of stats below and Legend FAQ

Performance and Talent Statistics: June 14th, 2013

PLAYER PERFORMANCE TALENT
PITCHER TM IP ERA SIERA WHIP GEM% K% BB% HR/9 G/F
Gonzalez WAS 77.2 3.59 4.04 1.21 61.5% 22.6% 10.7% 0.81 1.22
Masterson CLE 95.1 3.68 3.62 1.21 50.0% 23.2% 9.3% 0.76 1.81
Fife LAD 16.2 3.78 2.87 1.50 33.0% 24.3% 5.7% 1.62 4.00
Locke PIT 75.1 2.39 4.48 1.21 38.5% 17.8% 11.3% 0.60 1.94
Dempster BOS 75.2 4.40 3.76 1.33 38.5% 25.5% 10.8% 1.67 1.11
Tillman BAL 76.1 3.89 3.99 1.28 46.2% 20.7% 8.0% 1.89 0.91
Mendoza KCR 58 4.19 4.70 1.45 30.0% 14.6% 9.5% 0.93 1.74
Moore TBR 69 3.78 4.43 1.35 50.0% 21.3% 11.7% 1.04 0.81
Jackson CHC 65.2 5.76 3.73 1.57 8.3% 21.1% 8.6% 0.69 1.84
Marcum NYM 49 4.96 3.65 1.24 42.9% 21.1% 4.9% 0.55 0.84
Westbrook STL 39 1.62 4.72 1.46 66.7% 11.5% 10.8% 0.00 3.04
Fernandez MIA 65.1 3.17 3.61 1.15 41.7% 24.8% 9.3% 0.83 1.33
Lohse MIL 73.2 4.03 4.21 1.24 33.3% 15.3% 4.0% 1.59 1.03
Arroyo CIN 86 3.35 4.37 1.10 53.8% 13.9% 4.1% 1.05 1.11
Bumgarner SFG 83 3.58 3.52 1.06 53.8% 23.5% 7.1% 0.76 1.18
Medlen ATL 78.1 2.87 4.23 1.29 46.2% 17.7% 7.4% 0.92 1.16
Buehrle TOR 80 5.06 4.46 1.38 38.5% 14.7% 6.6% 1.35 1.31
Grimm TEX 60 5.25 4.08 1.57 36.4% 18.8% 7.4% 1.05 1.42
Sale CWS 77.1 2.68 3.30 0.92 72.7% 24.1% 6.0% 0.81 1.36
Bedard HOU 55.2 5.34 4.74 1.58 27.3% 18.3% 10.7% 1.62 0.70
Porcello DET 63 4.86 3.09 1.22 27.3% 20.9% 5.0% 1.14 2.44
Diamond MIN 60.2 5.19 4.57 1.52 36.4% 11.3% 5.1% 1.04 1.46
Kendrick PHI 86.2 3.22 4.26 1.21 69.2% 15.4% 6.3% 0.83 1.27
Nicasio COL 68.1 4.61 4.43 1.33 23.1% 15.9% 8.5% 1.19 1.38
Pettitte NYY 61.1 3.82 3.88 1.26 50.0% 18.7% 7.0% 0.88 1.70
Wilson LAA 80.2 4.02 3.98 1.45 38.5% 21.7% 9.8% 0.89 1.40
Saunders SEA 77.1 5.12 4.76 1.47 46.2% 12.2% 7.4% 1.16 1.62
Milone OAK 83 3.69 3.81 1.17 53.8% 19.9% 4.6% 1.41 0.82
Cahill ARI 80.2 4.02 4.26 1.31 30.8% 14.9% 8.8% 0.67 2.46
Stults SDP 81.2 3.53 4.12 1.15 46.2% 17.3% 5.2% 0.77 1.00

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STARTING PITCHER BREAKDOWN

Here is a look at the day’s slate of arms and how they might stack in their given matchups.

THE CREAM OF THE CROP:

chris-sale-300x200

Chris Sale, CWS (at HOU) – The Astros have actually had some nice success against lefties with the third-best OPS against starters only and sixth overall. But they haven’t faced anyone on the level of Sale. They’ve smashed Kazmir, Saunders, Pettitte, Vargas and Harrison to build up their numbers. Sale was one pitch away from an eighth straight gem as Oakland’s Donaldson beat him on a 95 MPH fastball for a grand slam and all four runs against Sale last Friday. The pitch wasn’t too bad if you look at the video and even though he thoroughly missed his spot (down and in if you look at Flowers’ glove), it looked like a miss that shouldn’t burn him, but the white-hot Donaldson got the bat around nicely and took him opposite field for the slam.

Sale was rained out Wednesday leading to a week off as the Sox had a Thursday off-day. He gets the Astros instead of the Jays and while it’s a worse matchup on paper, I’m confident that Sale will be his ace-like self regardless. Since getting torched by Cleveland for eight runs in 4.3 innings back on April 13, Sale has a 1.85 ERA and 0.79 WHIP in 58.3 innings of work spanning eight starts, seven of which have been gems. He goes for a 10th gem (out of 12 starts) tonight.

Justin Masterson, CLE (v. WAS) – We all know Masterson’s big issue throughout his career has been left-handed batters. They get a long look at both his sinker and slider giving them a chance to smash it. That’s changed a bit this year with a career-best 700 OPS allowed to lefties. It has been paired with an even better 525 OPS against righties putting Masterson on track for a career year overall (though his ERA is tracking a bit higher than 2011’s 3.21). The Nationals will be without their best lefty tonight who continues to nurse a knee injury. That puts the duty on LaRoche, Span and Bernadina – not a particularly threatening trio.

Gio Gonzalez, WAS (at CLE) – Gonzalez hasn’t gotten much attention this year. He has come back to the pack a bit after his third place Cy Young finish a year ago, but he remains a very strong pitcher. His walk issues have ballooned again and honestly they were never really gone. He had set such an ugly precedent of 10-11% level walk rates that his 9.3% last year looked like marked improvement, but it wasn’t that special. This year’s 10.7% is back in line with career levels. I’ve been fearful of the Indians and rightfully so, but they’ve faltered against lefties lately. In the last three weeks they have a 617 OPS against southpaws. They aren’t a huge walking team so hopefully Gonzalez can attack the zone consistently and make them try to beat him. My biggest fear with him is run support in order to secure a win. His team’s offense has been terrible this year and they’re facing a strong pitcher in Masterson.

Madison Bumgarner, SF (at ATL) – MadBum really hasn’t been himself this year… or at least not since April. He posted a filthy 1.55 ERA in six April starts, but since then he has a 5.53 ERA with just two gems out of his seven starts. His fastball has been the key difference and his command of that pitch has eroded considerably. In April, the pitch allowed a 481 OPS with a 27% K rate and 4% BB rate. Since then it’s at 954, 17%, and 15%.

This looks like a great spot to get that fastball right as the Braves has the second-worst OPS against lefty fastballs since May 1st at just 611. Obviously I still hold Bumgarner in high regard, but don’t look at his lowered price as a misprint or mistake, he’s earned it with some poor play and while there is unquestionably upside because of his talent ceiling, he needs to adjust for that to come to fruition for us tonight.

BEST OF THE REST:

kris-medlen-300x200

Kris Medlen, ATL (v. SF) – The Giants have been wretched against righties this month as their 604 OPS ranks as the fourth-worst. The loss of Sandoval, Pagan and Scutaro has contributed to the slide, but the fact that only Pence and Posey have slugged better than .400 is also a major factor. Medlen has really sharpened up of late with a 1.88 ERA, 1.08 WHIP, and 4.5 K/BB rate in 28.7 innings spanning five starts that began after a rough outing in San Francisco against these Giants during which he allowed five runs (three earned) on eight hits and five walks in just 5.3 innings.

Kyle Kendrick, PHI (at COL) – I’d like Kendrick a lot more if this matchup wasn’t in Colorado, but he does a good enough job keeping the ball down that it can still be a successful trip. The loss of Tulo (for a while) and the uncertainty around Cargo and Fowler (day-to-day) make this a far more enticing matchup than it would be normally. Cuddyer is also fresh off of some time missed with a rib injury which leaves this once potent lineup somewhat neutered by comparison. If you’re looking for the zag to everyone’s zig, Kendrick would be the play.

Tommy Milone, OAK (v. SEA) – This is as ABC as it gets: Milone at home is gold. He has a 2.43/4.53 home/road split, a 1.05/1.25 WHIP split, and 5.8/3.6 K/BB split. The Mariners strike out the third-most against lefties and have the 20th-ranked OPS.

Andy Pettitte, NYY (at LAA) – Pettitte has feasted on most of his weak opponents this year, with only the Astros getting to him (7 ER in 4.3 IP). One of the bigger issues for this Angels team has been lefties. They have a paltry 662 OPS against them, fifth-worst in MLB. The good work of Trout and Kendrick has been offset by the horrific efforts of Pujols, Aybar and Hamilton. This is a good spot for Pettitte, but I do worry about whether or not his lineup will succeed against C.J. Wilson to put him in line for a win.

USE CAUTION:

C.J. Wilson, LAA (v. NYY) – This is a pure matchup play. Wilson has been solid, if unspectacular with some great outings and some horrid ones, but the Yankees have looked terrible at the dish since April. They’ve been middle of the pack against lefties and Wilson can miss enough bats to even sustain a baseline quality start (6 IP/3 ER). I favor Pettitte in the matchup overall, but predicting wins is a crapshoot since both of these guys will almost certainly turn it over to the bullpen relatively early.

Matt Moore, TB (v. KC) – Moore was doing a remarkable job of clearing traffic off of the bases during his first 11 starts. He had a 91% left on base rate which is beyond insane and usually reserved for relievers who work much shorter samples. There was no way he was going to sustain it and it seems like the regression came all at once as his walks plagued him against Detroit and then Baltimore had a hit parade against him five days later.

He’s not as good as the 2.18 ERA guy from the first 11 outings, nor is he as bad as the 18.00 (!) ERA guy from the last two. The Royals offense is terrible on the whole, but that’s because they are the second-worst in baseball against righties. Their work against lefties isn’t too bad, sitting at 13th in OPS with a 730. I think Moore starts to get back on track here and his price is depressed enough to make him a solid gamble, too.

Eric Stults, SD (v. ARI) – The Diamondbacks were baseball’s worst team against southpaws in April with a 593 OPS, but they are the league’s fifth-best since then at 773. Stults has allowed more than three runs just once since May 1st: four to these Diamondbacks on May 24th and he’s gone six-plus in all but one his eight starts during that run posting a 2.47 ERA and 1.06 WHIP in 54.7 innings. Only DailyJoust has severely pumped his price, but everywhere else he is someone to look at as a bargain play.

Rick Porcello, DET (at MIN) – Maybe it’s the contact-heavy nickel and dime offense of the Twins, but they just have Porcello’s numbers. He has just one quality start against them in his last five and his 5 ER/5 IP outing against them on May 23rd is the only bump in his otherwise great run since that meltdown in Anaheim when he allowed 9 ER in 0.7 IP. Overall I really like Porcello of late, but I’m cautious of using him against the annoying Twins, especially since his price is on the rise.

Jeff Locke, PIT (v. LAD) – When is allowing one hit over 5.7 innings unimpressive? When you walk seven as Locke did against the Cubs during his last time out. He has had some impressive starts, but he doesn’t go deep into games (reached the seventh inning just twice in 13 starts), doesn’t strikeout too many batters (18% K rate), and walks far too many batters (11% BB rate).

Jake Westbrook, STL (at MIA) – The obligatory Miami mention of the day. Westbrook returns from the DL with a trip to Miami as he hopes to keep his ridiculous season going. He has a 1.62 ERA through six starts despite a 1.46 WHIP, 12% K rate, and 11% BB rate. In other words, he doesn’t deserve anything near a 1.62 ERA, but that might not matter against Miami. Their offense is strengthening a bit with the returns of Stanton and Morrison, but it’s still far from scary, especially in that spacious ballpark. Westbrook will be a popular pick tonight, but even against Miami there is some risk.

Shaun Marcum, NYM (v. CHC) – Marcum’s last time out saw him throw eight innings allowing just one run on five hits with seven strikeouts… IN RELIEF! That effort game in the epic 20-inning game against Miami as both he and Kevin Slowey put up huge efforts to that keep that game well into the late-afternoon. Over his last five outings, he has a 3.41 ERA with a 33/4 K/BB in 34.3 innings. And it’s not just built on the destruction of Miami as he also has outings against St. Louis, Cincinnati, and Atlanta.

Bronson Arroyo, CIN (v. MIL) – Full disclosure: I’d never use him myself, but I also can’t deny the fact that he’s been really good this year. He tamed two of the strongest offenses in the league during his last two outings holding the Rockies and Cardinals to just two runs in 14 innings with a 7/1 K/BB. He has already gotten the Brewers for 6.3 shutout innings at home this year, too. The best part is that his price doesn’t seem to go up regardless of how well he pitches. So why wouldn’t I use him? Because I just know that the second I trust him is the moment he gives up two or three home runs (his biggest weakness) en route to an 8 ER nightmare.

jose-fernandez-300x200

Jose Fernandez, MIA (v. STL) – His success this year has been incredible given his circumstances, but for our purposes as daily fantasy players, he doesn’t offer any real upside in this matchup. He hasn’t yet thwarted a top-10 offense. Part of that – OK maybe all of that – is because he hasn’t faced one yet, but his two worst outings are against the two best offenses he has faced: Cincinnati (12th) and Tampa Bay (14th). In fairness, he did bounce back in his second go at the Reds holding them to two runs in seven innings, but he’s just not battle-tested enough to use in a matchup against a strong St. Louis offense.

Trevor Cahill, ARI (at SD) – Cahill’s in the midst of a big rough patch right now so I’m going to sit this one out against San Diego and see what we’re dealing with here. This should be a strong matchup for him, but he’s been all out of sorts lately. His mechanics were toast from the jump during his last outing and the eight earned runs weren’t even that shocking. He’s walking too many and not missing enough bats, there are just a lot of negative signs right now that he needs to correct before being trusted, especially on a Big Friday.

Kyle Lohse, MIL (at CIN) – Who are we getting this month? Lohse had a 2.53 ERA in April followed by a 6.51 in May and now a 2.57 so far in June. He gets a solid offense in the Reds who have hit well since May after a weak April. Since May 1st, they have the sixth-best OPS against righties though Lohse’s game does not marry well with one of their strengths: drawing walks.

Juan Nicasio, COL (v. PHI) – The inclination of many is to look at a 4.61 ERA and just assume Coors Field has done a number on him, but he’s actually markedly better at home thanks in large part to his 51% groundball rate that helps minimize the damage of that park. His 4.31 home ERA is supported by a 22% K rate and 2.6 K/BB whereas his 4.86 road ERA is accompanied by a meager 11% K rate and 1.4 K/BB. There are better options available, but I could see a scenario where he makes a worthwhile value play.

Ryan Dempster, BOS (at BAL) – He mitigates the damage of his weak starts with strikeout power, but he’s had to do a lot of mitigating this year because he just hasn’t been that good. This is a dangerous setup for him as the O’s carry the third-best OPS v. righties at 785 and their 66 home runs are just two away from topping all of baseball. Homers have been Demspter’s issue all year with a career-worst 1.7 HR/9.

Chris Tillman, BAL (v. BOS) – A home run machine (1.9 HR/9) facing the toughest offense (830 OPS) against righties in the league? No thanks.

Justin Grimm, TEX (v. TOR) – The Jays also have 66 home runs and while Grimm doesn’t have the same issue (1.1 HR/9), he does allow far too many hits (11.1 H/9) to confidently bet on him shutting down a top-10 offense.

Scott Diamond, MIN (v. DET) – He has been frighteningly inconsistent this year with more good than bad. He threw seven shutout innings in Boston back on May 7th only to get thrashed for six earned in 4.3 innings against them two starts later. It was his second straight outing of six earned runs, in fact. Pass.

Joe Saunders, SEA (at OAK) – I’m not sure there is a magic switch that is flipped for Saunders that turns him from good to bad when he leaves Safeco, but he thrives at home (2.53 ERA) and does terribly on the road (9.00). Oakland’s ballpark is seemingly just as friendly as Seattle’s, but Saunders was ripped there in his season debut when he gave up four runs on seven hits and four walks in just four innings of work. I just don’t see any reason to mess with him in a non-Safeco start.

YOU CAN SAFELY IGNORE:

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PARK FACTORS: June 14th, 2013

PITCHER PARK PARK-HR PARK-LHB PARK-RHB
Gonzalez Progressive Field 1.234 1.037 1.012
Masterson Progressive Field 1.234 1.037 1.012
Fife PNC Park 0.593 0.837 0.883
Locke PNC Park 0.593 0.837 0.883
Dempster Camden Yards 1.243 1.120 1.001
Tillman Camden Yards 1.243 1.120 1.001
Mendoza Tropicana Field 0.865 1.016 0.959
Moore Tropicana Field 0.865 1.016 0.959
Jackson Citi Field 0.852 0.887 0.913
Marcum Citi Field 0.852 0.887 0.913
Westbrook Marlins Park 0.806 0.996 0.837
Fernandez Marlins Park 0.806 0.996 0.837
Lohse Great American Ball Park 1.454 1.023 0.988
Arroyo Great American Ball Park 1.454 1.023 0.988
Bumgarner Turner Field 0.959 0.948 0.895
Medlen Turner Field 0.959 0.948 0.895
Buehrle Rangers Ballpark 1.066 1.019 1.005
Grimm Rangers Ballpark 1.066 1.019 1.005
Sale Minute Maid Park 1.499 1.078 1.089
Bedard Minute Maid Park 1.499 1.078 1.089
Porcello Target Field 0.83 1.051 1.023
Diamond Target Field 0.83 1.051 1.023
Kendrick Coors Field 0.938 0.968 1.081
Nicasio Coors Field 0.938 0.968 1.081
Pettitte Angel Stadium 0.879 0.956 1.066
Wilson Angel Stadium 0.879 0.956 1.066
Saunders O.co Coliseum 0.814 0.902 0.993
Milone O.co Coliseum 0.814 0.902 0.993
Cahill Petco Park 0.945 1.072 0.876
Stults Petco Park 0.945 1.072 0.876

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Starting Pitcher Salaries: June 14th, 2013

Shown below are starting pitcher salaries as well as the percent of top statistics.

1) Percent Top in Red are the most expensive. Between 80% and 100% of the most expensive pitcher each day for each site.
2) Percent Top in Yellow cost between 60% and 80% of the most expensive pitcher each day for each site.
3) Percent Top in Green cost between 40% and 60% of the most expensive pitcher each day for each site.
4) Percent Top in Blue are the cheapest pitchers each day and are 40% or lower than the most expensive pitcher each day for each site.

Site FANDUEL DRAFTSTREET DAILYJOUST DRAFTDAY DRAFTKINGS FANTASYFEUD STARSTREET
Name Salary Top Salary Top Salary Top Salary Top Salary Top Salary Top Salary Top
Gonzalez $8,000 89% $14,545 82% $349K 84% $14,050 67% $9,400 75% $89K 61% $30,600 82%
Masterson $7,300 81% $13,100 74% $360K 87% $11,700 56% $8,700 70% $94K 64% $23,900 64%
Fife $4,500 50% $8,529 48% $282K 68% $9,150 43% $6,600 53% $68K 46% $20,700 56%
Locke $6,200 69% $13,368 76% $277K 67% $10,750 51% $6,800 54% $100K 68% $20,900 56%
Dempster $7,000 78% $12,788 73% $310K 75% $10,050 48% $8,700 70% $80K 54% $26,200 70%
Tillman $7,000 78% $11,239 64% $291K 70% $11,450 54% $7,200 58% $91K 62% $24,700 66%
Mendoza $4,500 50% $6,895 39% $185K 45% $8,450 40% $5,000 40% $53K 36% $18,200 49%
Moore $6,800 76% $11,914 68% $207K 50% $11,900 57% $10,100 81% $63K 43% $26,500 71%
Jackson $6,000 67% $10,904 62% $179K 43% $13,300 63% $7,100 57% $62K 43% $26,500 71%
Marcum $6,300 70% $12,909 73% $272K 66% $11,450 54% $7,700 62% $86K 59% $28,300 76%
Westbrook $6,200 69% $12,231 69% $302K 73% $9,900 47% $9,000 72% NA NA $21,200 57%
Fernandez $6,100 68% $11,967 68% $341K 82% $12,550 60% $7,000 56% $87K 60% $24,100 65%
Lohse $6,500 72% $9,045 51% $285K 69% $9,300 44% $8,800 70% $68K 46% $22,400 60%
Arroyo $6,400 71% $11,270 64% $353K 85% $11,400 54% $7,400 59% $92K 63% $22,600 61%
Bumgarner $7,600 84% $13,579 77% $326K 79% $14,800 70% $9,300 74% $100K 69% $29,600 80%
Medlen $7,300 81% $15,589 88% $367K 89% $15,400 73% $8,600 69% $103K 70% $27,900 75%
Buehrle $5,300 59% $8,616 49% $269K 65% $6,250 30% $6,600 53% $70K 48% $22,200 60%
Grimm $4,900 54% $7,371 42% $258K 62% $8,300 39% $7,600 61% $53K 36% $18,000 48%
Sale $9,000 100% $17,637 100% $414K 100% $21,050 100% $12,500 100% $147K 100% $37,200 100%
Bedard $4,700 52% $8,312 47% $212K 51% $6,750 32% $6,100 49% $60K 41% $19,100 51%
Porcello $6,400 71% $12,403 70% $333K 80% $10,400 49% $6,300 50% $82K 56% $26,500 71%
Diamond $4,600 51% $5,611 32% $170K 41% $6,200 29% $6,100 49% $49K 34% $17,700 48%
Kendrick $5,700 63% $11,102 63% $304K 73% $12,050 57% $8,400 67% $80K 55% $24,300 65%
Nicasio $5,200 58% $9,212 52% $237K 57% $8,300 39% $7,700 62% $64K 44% $19,000 51%
Pettitte $6,900 77% $12,331 70% $355K 86% $11,550 55% $8,100 65% $96K 65% $24,300 65%
Wilson $7,200 80% $11,561 66% $297K 72% $12,900 61% $7,900 63% $89K 61% $28,200 76%
Saunders $5,200 58% $9,041 51% $313K 76% $7,000 33% $6,200 50% $62K 42% $23,800 64%
Milone $7,200 80% $14,098 80% $321K 78% $14,550 69% $8,900 71% $106K 72% $26,300 71%
Cahill $5,700 63% $9,513 54% $228K 55% $8,900 42% $7,600 61% $50K 35% $24,500 66%
Stults $6,400 71% $12,858 73% $392K 95% $9,800 47% $6,400 51% $92K 63% $26,200 70%

About the Author

PSporer
PSporer

Paul has been writing about baseball for 15 years at various internet outlets and he’s been an avid fantasy baseballer for 21 of his 33 years on this planet, joining his first league at 12 years old which is still running today. He writes a comprehensive starting pitcher guide each year and it’s now available thespguide.com. When’s he’s not watching baseball, he is sleeping, because why would anyone waste time being awake if they weren’t going to watch baseball? He writes three times a week and has his own podcast at Fangraphs with co-hosts Eno Sarris & Jason Collette, contributes to Rotowire, and he has been a guest co-host with Matthew Berry on ESPN’s Fantasy Focus podcast.