Daily Pitcher Breakdown: June 20th

by PSporer Last Updated 2014-06-20 15:43:31

The Daily Pitcher Breakdown goes in-depth to look at nearly every pitching option, with a focus on the best targets for each night. Sometimes there will be a best of the rest section featuring guys who are likely low-dollar options with some upside for those of you who prefer to load your lineup with hitting studs.

There will also be a contingent of the starters that you can ignore each day. They offer no discernible upside so they aren’t worth your time. Because it is baseball and a 162-game season, there are going to be times when guys from the ignore group go off, but we’re dealing with probabilities in the daily game so the goal is to give yourself the best odds for success, not find needle in the proverbial haystack that finally doesn’t poke you.

LEGEND
Stats Shown in Red Are BELOW AVERAGE
Stats Shown in White are AVERAGE
Stats Shown in Green Are ABOVE AVERAGE
Stats Shown in Blue Are ELITE

View descriptions of stats below and Legend FAQ

Daily Pitcher Chart

Pitcher	TM	OPP	IP	ERA	SIERA	WHIP	GEM%	K%	BB%	HR/9	G/F
Morton	PIT	CHC	87.1	3.09	3.87	1.24	38.5%	18.0%	8.6%	0.41	2.44
Jackson	CHC	PIT	79.1	5.11	3.93	1.50	15.4%	21.6%	9.5%	0.91	1.25
Jimenez	BAL	NYY	76	4.86	4.58	1.51	23.1%	20.4%	13.5%	1.07	1.46
Kuroda	NYY	BAL	83.1	4.32	3.89	1.25	38.5%	16.2%	4.8%	1.08	1.47
Porcello	DET	CLE	82.2	4.03	4.13	1.25	50.0%	15.6%	5.9%	0.98	1.43
Kluber	CLE	DET	96.2	3.35	2.94	1.27	50.0%	26.4%	6.4%	0.65	1.55
Minor	ATL	WAS	53	4.42	3.72	1.51	62.5%	20.7%	6.8%	1.53	1.20
Strasburg	WAS	ATL	94	3.06	2.56	1.21	64.3%	28.8%	5.1%	0.67	1.57
Cosart	HOU	TBR	80	4.16	4.17	1.36	30.8%	17.0%	9.9%	0.68	2.21
Price	TBR	HOU	107.2	3.93	2.54	1.12	42.9%	27.3%	2.3%	1.25	1.15
Matsuzaka	NYM	MIA	41.2	2.81	4.65	1.26	66.7%	23.0%	16.9%	0.22	1.11
Alvarez	MIA	NYM	88	2.56	3.66	1.28	38.5%	15.3%	4.9%	0.41	2.34
Dickey	TOR	CIN	90.1	4.08	4.44	1.40	42.9%	18.0%	10.0%	1.10	1.17
Latos	CIN	TOR	6	0.00	3.83	0.33		20.0%	0.0%	0.00	0.29
Noesi	CWS	MIN	57	5.37	4.18	1.56	25.0%	18.8%	8.2%	1.42	0.85
Nolasco	MIN	CWS	84.1	5.66	4.18	1.57	15.4%	16.5%	6.5%	1.39	1.21
Iwakuma	SEA	KCR	66	2.59	2.91	0.94	50.0%	19.1%	2.4%	0.95	2.35
Shields	KCR	SEA	97.2	3.50	3.61	1.30	50.0%	19.4%	5.3%	1.11	1.41
Burnett	PHI	STL	95	4.17	4.37	1.40	42.9%	17.9%	10.4%	0.85	1.63
Garcia	STL	PHI	38.2	3.72	2.83	0.97	20.0%	20.9%	3.3%	1.16	2.37
Estrada	MIL	COL	84	4.82	3.99	1.24	23.1%	21.2%	7.7%	2.46	0.67
Bergman	COL	MIL	12	3.75	4.47	1.33	100.0%	13.5%	3.9%	1.50	0.81
Lincecum	SFG	ARI	76.2	4.81	3.82	1.50	23.1%	22.6%	10.1%	1.17	1.53
Collmenter	ARI	SFG	80	4.05	4.44	1.21	27.3%	14.6%	6.1%	1.13	0.96
Saunders	TEX	LAA	26	3.46	4.49	1.77	25.0%	12.3%	8.2%	0.69	2.17
Richards	LAA	TEX	87.2	2.87	3.37	1.11	53.8%	24.4%	8.4%	0.21	1.65
Doubront	BOS	OAK	45.2	5.12	4.81	1.57	22.2%	14.8%	9.1%	1.38	0.94
Mills	OAK	BOS
Haren	LAD	SDP	86.1	3.54	3.92	1.25	38.5%	15.4%	3.9%	1.25	1.43
Kennedy	SDP	LAD	92	3.72	3.10	1.17	50.0%	25.9%	6.4%	0.88	1.11

Here is a look at the day’s slate of arms and how they might stack in their given matchups.
If a guy isn’t listed, he’s just kind of a neutral option – I’m not using him, but I’m not stacking against him, either.

BEST BUYS:

stephen-strasburg-300x200

These aren’t just low-cost guys with good matchups and/or venues, but you will also find expensive studs in here with great matchups.

Stephen Strasburg WAS (v. ATL) – Strasburg is rolling now. He’s got 11 straight quality starts during which he’s posted a 2.22 ERA with 80 strikeouts in 73 IP. He’s fanned fewer than five just once with four double-digit efforts.

David Price TB (v. HOU) – Price is finally catching fire. Mind you, his component numbers have been brilliant all year, but he’s finally logging the results to match with a 2.67 ERA and 0.96 WHIP in his last four with a 37/2 K:BB ratio that includes three double-digit strikeout games. He gets Houston for the second straight start after an 8 IP/3 ER outing with 10 strikeouts back on 15th. He could chisel another half of run off of that 3.93 ERA by the All-Star break.

Corey Kluber CLE (v. DET) – After an incredible May, Kluber has waned in three June starts, but I’m not worried about it being much more than a lull. He still carries the high potential for a deep game and tons of strikeouts, even against the Tigers.

Hisashi Iwakuma SEA (at KC) – The Royals lost their 10-game winning streak, but they are still unquestionably hot, riding high in first place after their three wins in a four-game set against Detroit. And yet, I still fully expect Iwakuma to shut them down. He’s just been so good. The Royals strength of not striking out doesn’t really impact Iwakuma because he lives by the weak contact, something the Royals deliver in spades. He’s gone at least seven innings in six of his eight outings and eight innings in four of those. He doesn’t walk anybody, either. So while his strikeout totals are lower than you’d expect from a stud, he doesn’t lose any points via the walk which keeps his point total sky-high.

mat-latos-300x200

Mat Latos CIN (v. TOR) – Latos was excellent in his season debut and he gets the Jays in the midst of trough. They’ve scored just 3.2 runs per game in 16 June games after dropping 5.5 per game in 30 May games. I expect Latos to be a stud the rest of the way and his price is down relative to other studs at some sites as he gets into the flow of his season. I especially like him at those outlets, but I’d also pay a premium like the $10,000 price tag at DraftKings.

James Shields KC (v. SEA) – If I told you that KC was going to be in first place, you’d probably think that Shields was having an insane year, but he’s been just good. He still has the dominant flashes, though, as his numbers are inflated by a handful of duds. He’s got eight gems and 11 quality starts among his 15 starts. The M’s, despite their solid record and firm contention in the wildcard, don’t have a scary offense.

Garrett Richards LAA (v. TEX) – Where is his attention for this year? He has taken a massive step forward this year with a sub-3.00 ERA and the component numbers to back it. By the way, he has a 0.7 IP/5 ER on his ledger and STILL has just a 2.87 ERA. He only had a baseline quality start against the Rangers the last time he faced them, but added nine strikeouts to fatten up his score.

Ian Kennedy SD (v. LAD) – His ERA is higher at home, but the skills are much better than his 3.88 ERA in 48.7 IP at Petco. He’s got a 10.4 K/9 and 4.7 K:BB ratio with just five homers allowed which is a very palatable (for him, at least) 0.92 HR/9.

jaime-garcia-300x200

Jaime Garcia STL (v. PHI) – Garcia has looked fantastic since returning with a 3.72 ERA and 0.96 WHIP in 38.7 IP. He allowed four homers in his first three outings, but he’s yielded just one in his last three. The homers have cost him a bit in the ERA, but he’s not allowing base runners helping yield big scores in five of his six outings.

VALUE PLAYS:

These are guys aren’t inherently good buys, but they have a nice matchup and they’re likely to be very cheap so you can save with them and take the gamble that they come through with a strong effort.

Dan Haren LAD (at SD) – His price is on the cusp for this designation, but I’m buying him on Friday simply because of the matchup otherwise I’d be laying off. He’s been just OK over his last four with just two strikeouts apiece and I’m worried that he’s not 100%. That said, if he can manage to hold his own against four solid offenses at less than 100%, then he can still decimate the Padres.

Jarred Cosart HOU (at TB) – Cosart has three straight quality starts while finally posting some component numbers to get behind with 18 strikeouts and four walks in the 19.7 IP of work. Of course he still only has a 1.7 K:BB ratio which does give me some pause. The Rays aren’t a scary offense, though, and Cosart had a solid 7 IP/3 ER gem against them back on June 14th.

henderson-alvarez-300x200

Henderson Alvarez MIA (v. NYM) – Despite some huge daily game efforts and just a 2.56 ERA this year, Alvarez is still a value play. Maybe it’s his lack of strikeouts or his blowup potential that keeps his price depressed, but that only makes him more appealing. If I’m gambling on a value play, I want someone with six gems and three other outings with two or fewer earned runs (but also fewer than six innings) in 14 total starts. If you know that you’re just about guaranteed to get a 6 IP/4 ER from a value play, then there’s no real upside. In the value play realm, I embrace the volatility because the nights like one of Alvarez’s three shutouts offer the big cashouts.

Ricky Nolasco MIN (v. CWS) – Here’s your hero play for the day. Yes, Nolasco is that guy I just described who is about guaranteed for a 5-6 IP outing with 4-5 ER, buuut he’s been a bit unfortunate with a .349 BABIP, 69% LOB rate, and 12.9% HR/FB rate – all far from the league average. If he continues to pitch with these skills (or the better ones he still has in reserve somewhere), he’s got some goose eggs forthcoming as he chisels his ERA down to the low-to-mid 4.00s.

STAYAWAYS:

These guys should just be avoided either because of their matchup, talent-level, or both. These guys are often the ones you’ll want to stack against if you use that method.

Rick Porcello DET (at CLE)
R.A. Dickey TOR (at CIN)
Felix Doubront BOS (at OAK)
Hector Noesi CWS (at MIN)
Joe Saunders TEX (at LAA)
Marco Estrada MIL (at COL)
Christian Bergman COL (v. MIL)

Pitcher Advanced Stats and Stats Against

Pitcher	wOBA vs L	ERA vs L	wOBA vs R	ERA vs R	AVG	OPS	BABIP	FIP	AVG-A	Pit/G	Strk%
Morton	0.333	4.22	0.282	2.45	0.223	0.640	1.240	3.09	0.094	99.86	63.5%
Jackson	0.368	5.92	0.327	4.43	0.258	0.715	1.500	5.11	0.121	96.93	62.7%
Jimenez	0.309	3.86	0.317	3.75	0.247	0.684	1.510	4.86	0.069	101.43	60.5%
Kuroda	0.327	4.07	0.276	3.10	0.263	0.723	1.250	4.32	0.114	95.36	62.4%
Porcello	0.346	4.63	0.283	3.84	0.264	0.753	1.250	4.03	0.097	99.15	65.2%
Kluber	0.328	4.16	0.297	3.13	0.276	0.765	1.260	3.35	0.201	98.73	67.0%
Minor	0.272	2.70	0.315	3.74	0.284	0.754	1.510	4.42	0.139	101.44	63.2%
Strasburg	0.282	3.22	0.277	2.92	0.238	0.659	1.210	3.06	0.237	97.13	67.5%
Cosart	0.278	2.85	0.332	3.83	0.247	0.692	1.360	4.16	0.07	97.36	61.9%
Price	0.263	3.42	0.307	3.65	0.268	0.739	1.110	3.93	0.25	109.60	70.0%
Matsuzaka	0.300	2.56	0.296	4.61	0.256	0.722	1.250	2.81	0.062	35.86	59.0%
Alvarez	0.315	3.49	0.273	2.77	0.224	0.646	1.280	2.56	0.104	86.93	66.1%
Dickey	0.333	4.32	0.311	4.08	0.248	0.687	1.390	4.08	0.08	103.53	63.8%
Latos	0.309	3.17	0.282	3.05	0.263	0.766	0.330	0.00	0.2	87.00	69.0%
Noesi	0.371	5.32	0.400	6.57	0.246	0.705	1.560	5.37	0.106	67.27	64.0%
Nolasco	0.344	4.47	0.317	4.17	0.261	0.733	1.570	5.66	0.1	100.21	62.8%
Iwakuma	0.271	2.27	0.279	3.11	0.268	0.695	0.940	2.59	0.167	96.89	68.1%
Shields	0.295	3.14	0.326	3.47	0.234	0.678	1.290	3.50	0.142	106.20	64.0%
Burnett	0.354	4.97	0.256	2.55	0.259	0.692	1.400	4.17	0.075	103.07	60.0%
Garcia	0.395	5.95	0.277	3.04	0.260	0.739	0.960	3.72	0.177	89.17	66.4%
Estrada	0.293	3.87	0.338	4.65	0.280	0.783	1.240	4.82	0.135	101.36	63.9%
Bergman	0.268	1.59	0.367	5.68	0.264	0.732	1.330	3.75	0.096	92.00	67.4%
Lincecum	0.327	4.61	0.325	4.46	0.257	0.706	1.490	4.81	0.125	97.29	61.7%
Collmenter	0.328	4.24	0.290	3.14	0.253	0.708	1.210	4.05	0.085	75.38	65.1%
Saunders	0.263	2.89	0.410	5.83	0.264	0.763	1.770	3.46	0.041	94.80	59.5%
Richards	0.304	3.76	0.272	3.71	0.257	0.689	1.110	2.87	0.16	98.71	61.9%
Doubront	0.309	3.46	0.341	4.87	0.244	0.727	1.550	5.12	0.057	87.56	61.7%
Mills					0.248	0.700
Haren	0.309	4.89	0.349	3.82	0.218	0.616	1.250	3.54	0.115	100.57	64.6%
Kennedy	0.340	4.97	0.324	4.19	0.270	0.760	1.17	3.72	0.196	103.27	65.2%

Starting Pitcher Salaries

Click the image below to view pitcher salaries by each daily fantasy site along with their percent of top statistics.

Percent of Top (Top) – Player salary divided by the most expensive pitcher each day. So if Felix Hernandez is $9,000 on FanDuel and Justin Verlander is $4,500, Verlanders Top stat would be 50.