Daily Pitcher Breakdown: June 2nd
The Daily Pitcher Breakdown goes in-depth to look at nearly every pitching option, with a focus on the best targets for each night. Sometimes there will be a best of the rest section featuring guys who are likely low-dollar options with some upside for those of you who prefer to load your lineup with hitting studs.
There will also be a contingent of the starters that you can ignore each day. They offer no discernible upside so they aren’t worth your time. Because it is baseball and a 162-game season, there are going to be times when guys from the ignore group go off, but we’re dealing with probabilities in the daily game so the goal is to give yourself the best odds for success, not find needle in the proverbial haystack that finally doesn’t poke you.
LEGEND
Stats Shown in Red Are BELOW AVERAGE
Stats Shown in White are AVERAGE
Stats Shown in Green Are ABOVE AVERAGE
Stats Shown in Blue Are ELITE
View descriptions of stats below and Legend FAQ
Daily Pitcher Chart
| Pitcher | TM | OPP | IP | ERA | SIERA | WHIP | GEM% | K% | BB% | HR/9 | G/F |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lackey | BOS | CLE | 65.1 | 3.58 | 3.21 | 1.24 | 72.7% | 22.7% | 4.7% | 0.88 | 1.22 |
| Masterson | CLE | BOS | 64.1 | 5.32 | 3.92 | 1.53 | 41.7% | 19.0% | 10.8% | 0.67 | 2.79 |
| Hernandez | SEA | NYY | 75.1 | 2.75 | 2.77 | 1.07 | 66.7% | 24.8% | 4.8% | 0.32 | 1.95 |
| Phelps | NYY | SEA | 34 | 3.18 | 3.85 | 1.38 | 20.0% | 21.2% | 9.5% | 0.90 | 1.19 |
| Colon | NYM | PHI | 57.1 | 5.34 | 3.57 | 1.35 | 40.0% | 18.7% | 2.5% | 1.25 | 0.94 |
| Hernandez | PHI | NYM | 47 | 3.83 | 4.29 | 1.51 | 33.3% | 17.2% | 11.1% | 1.03 | 2.25 |
| Cobb | TBR | MIA | 25.2 | 1.40 | 3.34 | 0.87 | 60.0% | 22.1% | 6.6% | 0.88 | 1.57 |
| Wolf | MIA | TBR | 10 | 4.50 | 3.73 | 1.40 | 18.2% | 4.6% | 0.00 | 0.77 | |
| Gibson | MIN | MIL | 50 | 4.68 | 4.67 | 1.42 | 50.0% | 12.0% | 8.3% | 0.48 | 1.69 |
| Garza | MIL | MIN | 60.1 | 4.92 | 4.07 | 1.35 | 18.2% | 19.3% | 8.3% | 0.94 | 1.04 |
| Duffy | KCR | STL | 31.1 | 2.59 | 4.95 | 1.03 | 40.0% | 15.9% | 11.3% | 1.02 | 0.70 |
| Miller | STL | KCR | 56.2 | 3.18 | 4.80 | 1.41 | 18.2% | 17.2% | 12.0% | 1.31 | 1.12 |
| Morton | PIT | SDP | 63 | 3.29 | 4.22 | 1.27 | 36.4% | 15.3% | 8.8% | 0.53 | 2.27 |
| Stauffer | SDP | PIT | 23.2 | 1.90 | 3.40 | 1.25 | 23.1% | 10.6% | 0.38 | 2.06 | |
| Quintana | CWS | LAD | 61.1 | 3.67 | 3.63 | 1.28 | 45.5% | 19.4% | 6.5% | 0.53 | 1.67 |
| Kershaw | LAD | CWS | 28.1 | 3.49 | 2.09 | 1.25 | 50.0% | 31.5% | 4.8% | 0.51 | 2.13 |
Here is a look at the day’s slate of arms and how they might stack in their given matchups.
If a guy isn’t listed, he’s just kind of a neutral option – I’m not using him, but I’m not stacking against him, either.
BEST BUYS:
These aren’t just low-cost guys with good matchups and/or venues, but you will also find expensive studs in here with great matchups.
Clayton Kershaw LAD (v. CWS) – Despite the light slate, there are several big name options to choose from on Monday, including the best pitcher in baseball. Remember when Kershaw allowed 7 ER to Arizona a couple starts ago? That start still accounts for half of his season earned runs as he’s allowed just 3 ER in his last 13 IP with 18 Ks and just nine hits allowed.
Felix Hernandez SEA (at NYY) – Felix has gone 8, 8, and 8.7 IP in his last three outings with 23 Ks, 4 BB, and just 16 H allowed with a 1.46 ERA. He’s unsurprisingly 3-0, too. He’s gone fewer than 6 IP just once (5 IP at HOU of all places) and allowed more than 3 ER just once as well (4 ER to TB). He’s just been insane. He does a great job of regularly delivering on his enormous price tag.
Alex Cobb TB (at MIA) – I don’t really hold his 5 IP/6 ER dud in Toronto again him. Toronto is the AL’s Colorado right now so I’m simply avoiding anyone with them. By the way, that outing constituted 60% of his runs allowed this season. The other 40%? Yes, against Toronto in his season debut. He only has five starts so far this season, but he has three scoreless gems sandwiched by a pair of ugly outing against Toronto.
Jose Quintana CWS (at LAD) – Q is quite underrated. He doesn’t really ever seem to be a popular pick on the days he throws yet he’s allowed more than 3 ER just once and he’s gone at least 6 IP in nine of his 11 outings. He’s had some issues stranding runners (69% LOB rate), but if he can get back up near his 75% career mark, his ERA will drop into the low-3.00s with these skills. The Dodgers have been brutal against lefties making Quintana an even better pick on Monday.
Bartolo Colon NYM (at PHI) – It’s been the same story with Colon for a while – he’s got three blowup starts tarnishing his numbers, but he’s been excellent otherwise. He’s allowed 22 of his 34 ER in those three starts (65%) and all of his other seven starts are quality starts with six of them lasting at least seven innings. All of his ERA indicators portend a mark over a run lower than his 4.73 ERA. I’m buying in daily leagues and season-long leagues.
John Lackey BOS (at CLE) – Lackey kind has a Colon-esque season going on, too, except his three duds aren’t hurting him as much. He has outings of 6, 6, and 5 ER, but then eight of others of 2 or fewer ER yielding a 3.27 ERA in 71.7 IP. He’s riding a 13.3 IP scoreless streak right now, too, with a 12/1 K:BB ratio. Cleveland is tougher on righties, but Lackey is good enough to trust in just about any matchup right now.
VALUE PLAYS:
These are guys aren’t inherently good buys, but they have a nice matchup and they’re likely to be very cheap so you can save with them and take the gamble that they come through with a strong effort.
David Phelps NYY (v. SEA) – Phelps has transitioned into the rotation very nicely with a 3.18 ERA in five starts and his pitch count has been built up over 100 now so he can roll six or seven innings now. The M’s are 25th in the league with a .290 wOBA against righties, though they’ve been a bit better on the road with a .308 mark.
Charlie Morton PIT (at SD) – Morton’s 3.29 ERA is a bit misleading as all of his ERA indicators point to a low-4.00s ERA, but he’s facing everyone’s favorite team to pick on – the Padres. He’s a heavy groundballer which makes up for his modest strikeout rate. The game is essentially a pick’em so the win is definitely in question, but his low price point makes him a risk worth taking.
Tim Stauffer SD (v. PIT) – Call me crazy, but I’m still taking a look at Stauffer tomorrow at his rock-bottom price. He was absolutely horrific last time out with a 0.3 IP/7 ER massacre, but he’d been great up to that point with a 1.90 ERA, 1.22 WHIP, and 2.3 K:BB in 23.7 IP. If you are up for the risk and looking to save big bucks, give him a look.
STAYAWAYS:
These guys should just be avoided either because of their matchup, talent-level, or both. These guys are often the ones you’ll want to stack against if you use that method.
- Danny Duffy KC (at STL)
- Shelby Miller STL (v. KC)
- Roberto Hernandez PHI (v. NYM)
- Justin Masterson CLE (v. BOS)
Pitcher Advanced Stats and Stats Against
| Pitcher | wOBA vs L | ERA vs L | wOBA vs R | ERA vs R | AVG | OPS | BABIP | FIP | AVG-A | Pit/G | Strk% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lackey | 0.290 | 2.98 | 0.332 | 4.05 | 0.263 | 0.755 | 1.240 | 3.27 | 0.18 | 112.40 | 69.1% |
| Masterson | 0.338 | 4.33 | 0.252 | 3.43 | 0.247 | 0.692 | 1.540 | 5.21 | 0.082 | 100.00 | 61.8% |
| Hernandez | 0.281 | 3.20 | 0.271 | 2.60 | 0.252 | 0.704 | 1.020 | 2.57 | 0.2 | 110.82 | 66.4% |
| Phelps | 0.317 | 3.62 | 0.349 | 5.50 | 0.224 | 0.661 | 1.430 | 3.38 | 0.117 | 54.77 | 62.1% |
| Colon | 0.306 | 3.44 | 0.295 | 2.94 | 0.232 | 0.647 | 1.280 | 4.73 | 0.162 | 109.89 | 69.1% |
| Hernandez | 0.383 | 5.87 | 0.318 | 3.54 | 0.226 | 0.643 | 1.560 | 3.76 | 0.062 | 84.36 | 61.0% |
| Cobb | 0.288 | 3.15 | 0.285 | 2.31 | 0.259 | 0.746 | 1.040 | 2.93 | 0.156 | 117.75 | 65.4% |
| Wolf | 0.274 | 0.349 | 5.63 | 0.248 | 0.681 | 1.400 | 4.50 | 0.136 | 54.67 | 65.2% | |
| Gibson | 0.357 | 4.84 | 0.321 | 6.00 | 0.255 | 0.704 | 1.380 | 4.18 | 0.037 | 101.33 | 59.2% |
| Garza | 0.328 | 4.46 | 0.299 | 3.85 | 0.244 | 0.699 | 1.310 | 4.84 | 0.11 | 106.40 | 65.7% |
| Duffy | 0.217 | 0.64 | 0.318 | 3.65 | 0.232 | 0.653 | 1.250 | 3.57 | 0.046 | 58.90 | 61.0% |
| Miller | 0.349 | 4.45 | 0.276 | 2.50 | 0.256 | 0.658 | 1.460 | 3.94 | 0.052 | 101.80 | 61.3% |
| Morton | 0.340 | 4.28 | 0.282 | 2.59 | 0.226 | 0.638 | 1.290 | 3.29 | 0.065 | 111.00 | 63.2% |
| Stauffer | 0.244 | 3.86 | 0.352 | 4.11 | 0.247 | 0.683 | 1.500 | 4.50 | 0.125 | 33.15 | 62.2% |
| Quintana | 0.315 | 3.59 | 0.302 | 3.56 | 0.215 | 0.642 | 1.260 | 3.61 | 0.129 | 114.30 | 62.1% |
| Kershaw | 0.209 | 1.42 | 0.254 | 2.23 | 0.251 | 0.699 | 1.220 | 3.57 | 0.267 | 107.60 | 69.7% |
Starting Pitcher Salaries
Click the image below to view pitcher salaries by each daily fantasy site along with their percent of top statistics.
- Percent of Top (Top) – Player salary divided by the most expensive pitcher each day. So if Felix Hernandez is $9,000 on FanDuel and Justin Verlander is $4,500, Verlanders Top stat would be 50.
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