Daily Pitcher Breakdown: June 3rd, 2013

by PSporer Last Updated 2013-06-03 19:02:30

Welcome to the Daily Pitcher Breakdown. I will focus on the top selections of the day and give you a breakdown on why they are set up for success against their given opponent. Sometimes there will be a best of the rest section featuring guys who are likely low-dollar options with some upside for those of you who prefer to load your lineup with hitting studs.

There will also be a contingent of the starters that you can ignore each day. They offer no discernible upside so they aren’t worth your time. Because it is baseball and a 162-game season, there are going to be times when guys from the ignore group go off, but we’re dealing with probabilities in the daily game so the goal is to give yourself the best odds for success, not find needle in the proverbial haystack that finally doesn’t poke you.

LEGEND
Stats Shown in Red Are BELOW AVERAGE
Stats Shown in White are AVERAGE
Stats Shown in Green Are ABOVE AVERAGE
Stats Shown in Blue Are ELITE

View descriptions of stats below and Legend FAQ

Performance and Talent Statistics: June 3rd, 2013

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STARTING PITCHER BREAKDOWN

Here is a look at the day’s slate of arms and how they might stack in their given matchups.

THE CREAM OF THE CROP:

A.J. Burnett, PIT (at ATL) – Our two studs today come with the matching price tag, yet both are facing division leaders who are throwing one of their best arms, too, which puts a win in serious jeopardy. I don’t rely on the win to heavily influence decisions even though it can have serious consequences at some outlets (thanks for nothing on Sunday, Jonathan Broxton, ya jerkstore), but it has to be a consideration, especially when the cost is high. In his worst start of the season last time out, Burnett still managed a baseline quality start against the Tigers, though he did take a no-decision.

I doubt anyone was using him against Detroit, even at home, but the fact that his worst start was still a quality start speaks to how great he’s been this year. With the Braves still fanning a quarter of the time, I’m actually moving Burnett to the top spot on the fly so his and Lynn’s profiles will read backwards. I probably should’ve just revamped the write-ups, but I figured I’d show you how my train of thought works real-time. Even if he goes baseline quality start again, I could see eight or nine strikeouts and in terms of their counterparts, I think Lynn has it tougher with Cahill in terms of getting run support.

Lance Lynn, STL (v. ARI) – Lynn has quietly become one of the better pitchers in the game, but there are a few reasons to back away from him today. First off, he’s the most expensive arm at most outlets and if you’re going to pay top dollar you want to feel reasonably confident about a win which leads to my next point. He has a very formidable opponent in the D’Backs. They are eighth in the league against righties by OPS and actually knocked Lynn around in his season debut as he lasted just four innings and allowed four runs on six hits and three walks. Plus they are throwing a strong arm themselves in the form of Cahill. While I think Lynn will fare better than his season debut, it’s too tough of a matchup to invest top dollar. He remains in the cream of the crop because of his talent, but I wouldn’t go with him today.

BEST OF THE REST:

Justin Masterson, CLE (at NYY) – I heard someone on a podcast dismiss Masterson’s shutout of the Yankees back on May 13th because of the lineup. Unsurprisingly, he was a Yankees fan. OK fine, the lineup was weak, but is it markedly better three weeks later? The guys from May 13th who will be in tonight’s lineup include: Robinson Cano, Brett Gardner, Ichiro Suzuki, Chris Stewart, and Travis Hafner. That cover 2B, CF, LF (or RF, doesn’t matter), and DH.

Mark Teixeira will play first base over Corban Joseph which is an upgrade in pure talent, but Teix is 1-for-14 against Masterson. Kevin Youkilis will play third over Chris Nelson, but he’s 1-for-10. Brennan Boesch was in May 13th lineup and I suspect he’ll play again tonight because Vernon Wells is TERRIBLE against righties (694 OPS) and 2-for-19 against Masterson. Reid Brignac will probably play short as a lefty and he’s an upgrade over Alberto Gonzalez from the May 13th lineup as he had a 4-for-11 record against Masterson with a home run.

After another gem last time, against the Reds whose three best players are all left-handers (Masterson’s kryptonite usually), I’m buying in him overall. My only issue with today’s setup is that he’s expensive. Of course sometimes you have to invest in an arm to get the payoff. I like some cheaper options better today, but among the high-priced options, I think Masterson is the choice.

Kyle Kendrick, PHI (v. MIA) – Guess who doesn’t care about Miami’s three-game winning streak? Well, insofar as I have zero issues with picking on them with a halfway decent arm on the hill. Kendrick’s success this season is a continuation of the success he had in the final two months of 2012. He joined the rotation on August 14th (in Miami where he threw seven shutout innings) and since then he has a 2.87 ERA which is good for 12th in MLB among qualified starters.

After back-to-back rough outings against the Reds and Nats, he bounced back with a nice outing against the Red Sox, but his 13% BB rate during the three-game stretch stands out. Of course the Reds and Red Sox are 1-2 in BB% against righties for the season so only the four against Washington is especially alarming. The Marlins are 24th in walk rate so I expect him to challenge them repeatedly tonight. In a May 2nd start against them this year, he went seven strong allowing just two runs on nine base runners with five strikeouts. I expect more of the same tonight. Only DraftKings and StarStreet have pumped his price in preparation for his outing against the Marlins. He has great value at FanDuel, DraftStreet, FantasyFeud, and DraftDay. DailyJoust is kind of in the middle.

Trevor Cahill, ARI (at STL) – He didn’t oppose Lynn in that season-opening series, but he did face the Cards and was similarly “meh” albeit a little less so than Lynn going 5.7 innings and allowing three runs on seven base runners with seven punch outs. He actually gave up four in five innings in his next outing against Pittsburgh which makes his 2.88 season ERA even more impressive since he started in a 5.91 hole.

He has a 2.35 ERA in nine starts spanning 61.3 innings including three starts against the Rockies (two in Coors!) and one against the Rangers. Now one of those Coors starts accounts for the worst of the nine-start stretch (6 IP, 7 H, 4 ER, 1 K), but it’s impressive nonetheless. And yet to despite that glowing praise, I think today is a stay-away. After posting a 689 OPS (23rd) against righties in April, the Cardinals have surged with an 801 which is good for fifth. Even with a short slate, I think we can find better, safer options. Cahill is actually one of my favorite pitchers in the game, but this Cardinals lineup just doesn’t quit. Every batter is seemingly tougher than the last. Plus there’s Lynn pitching to Cahill’s teammates. The likely outcomes are as follows (ordered by likelihood):

• Both throw baseline quality starts or close to it, but neither gets a decision
• Pitcher duel where both are great (may or may not include a decision)
• Pitcher duel where both are solid (may or may not include a decision)
• Both are knocked around
• One or the other is knocked around

That isn’t every possible outcome, just the most likely ones in my opinion. Cahill is fairly priced so if you do dive into this matchup, I’d choose him before Lynn.

Joe Saunders, SEA (v. CWS) – “What? Joe Saunders? That guy has a 5.57 ERA, Paul!” I know, he can be terrible at times, but he’s been amazing at home with a 2.41 ERA and 1.04 WHIP in 33.7 innings. His 9.00 ERA and 2.07 WHIP on the road keep his composite numbers sky-high, but this is a prime matchup for him. The White Sox bring the 26th-best OPS against southpaws (654) into town along with a 425 OPS against the changeup, his best pitch in Safeco. He is priced to buy and set up for another strong home outing. Perhaps most impressive about that home ERA is that he gave up six to the Rangers in five innings during his last home start and it’s still that low.

Eric Stults, SD (at LAD) – It might be time to start picking on this horrid offense with anyone who has a modicum of talent. Sure, they called up Yasiel Puig, but this offense has been absolutely ravaged by injuries. Adrian Gonzalez is the only scary bat (he must feel like he’s back in San Diego) and then we have to wait and see if Puig is a second big threat. Stults posted a 2.66 ERA and 1.11 WHIP in May and while his three worst starts were on the road, he only gave up 2, 3, and 4 earned runs against the Cubs, Rays, and Diamondbacks, respectively. He dominated the Mariners his last time out which doesn’t sound special on the surface, but they are league average against lefties which is major improvement from their 23rd ranking in OPS overall. He isn’t quite as cheap as Saunders, especially at some outlets where is actually among the higher priced, but this is another strong value play.

USE CAUTION:

Tyler Chatwood, COL (at CIN) – I am still skeptical of Chatwood despite some very encouraging signs through five starts. The 58% groundball rate has helped him prevent homers… completely. He hasn’t yet allowed one. Meanwhile, he’s fanning guys at a career-high 21% rate and pairing it with a strong seven percent walk rate. I’m interested in him more for the long-term, but for our purposes with daily fantasy, Cincy is a tough spot (814 OPS against righties at home in May) and I’d rather not mess with him.

Kris Medlen, ATL (v. PIT) – He left his last start after just two innings with a calf injury, but that may have done more good than harm for his fantasy owners as he had given up three runs on four hits already to the Blue Jays. He’s an average pitcher. Plain and simple. There is nothing wrong with that. You can make an incredible living as an average MLB pitcher, but the problem with Medlen is that he’s still being priced like the superstar ace he was for 12 glorious starts last year.

Pittsburgh is not an offensive threat which is why “Wandy Rodriguez(player-profile)”:/players/Wandy_Rodriguez-10665’s six wins is the highest for starters on their team despite their 35-22 record. Relievers Justin Wilson (five) and Vin Mazzaro (three) are a combined 8-0. So this is a nice matchup for Medlen in that respect, but he is facing Burnett so both could be saddled with a no-decision even after great outings. I’m less concerned with a possible no-decision than I am his cost. I’d pay the extra for Burnett against a tougher lineup to be honest. The upside is higher.

Andy Pettitte, NYY (v. CLE) – He returns from the DL to face Cleveland who are tied for first with the Tigers in OPS against lefties at 795. The Tigers do their damage with more OBP while the Indians have the higher SLG at 460. In short, you couldn’t pay me to utilize Pettitte today.

Marco Estrada, MIL (v. OAK) – Estrada has two good outings in his last four, but both were against Pittsburgh while the Cardinals and Twins each hung four on him in between. In fact, he went through a stretch from April 30th through May 24th where he only played the Pirates and Cardinals. He gave up five to the Pirates at home, eight to the Cards at home, then one and four to them on the road, respectively followed by the second good Pittsburgh where he allowed one at home. Oakland’s offense fell off badly in May. After an 860 OPS against righties on the road, they fell to 674 in May as their strikeout rate moved from 16% to 21% and their walk rate fell two percentage points to nine percent. Despite the skid, I still think this offense can pack a punch and the homer-heavy (1.7 HR/9) Estrada is prone to helping offenses bring their best punch.

Tom Koehler, MIA (at PHI) – I actually see some value in Koehler, but there are other value plays with much bigger upside as his win probability is low and he doesn’t strike guys out. But I’d be remiss if I didn’t mention that he’s yet to give up more than three in his four outings which includes facing the Rays and Diamondbacks.

YOU CAN SAFELY IGNORE:

• Tommy Milone, OAK (at MIL) / Bronson Arroyo, CIN (v. COL) – Two super-homer prone pitchers facing home run-hitting teams in home run-friendly environments? You’re out of your mind if you use these guys today (Now they will both throw 7 shutout innings since I am being so dismissive). Milone pushed his road ERA to 5.55 last time out and while Arroyo is better at home with a 3.18 ERA (4.45 on the road), the Rockies punish righties, even on the road with a 762 OPS.

• John Danks, CWS
• Stephen Fife, LAD
• Erik Bedard, HOU
• Joe Blanton, LAA

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PARK FACTORS: June 3rd, 2013

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Starting Pitcher Salaries: June 3rd, 2013

Shown below are starting pitcher salaries as well as the percent of top statistics.

• Percent of Top (Top) – Player salary divided by the most expensive pitcher each day. So if Felix Hernandez is $9,000 on FanDuel and Justin Verlander is $4,500, Verlanders Top stat would be 50.

1) Percent Top in Red are the most expensive. Between 80% and 100% of the most expensive pitcher each day for each site.
2) Percent Top in Yellow cost between 60% and 80% of the most expensive pitcher each day for each site.
3) Percent Top in Green cost between 40% and 60% of the most expensive pitcher each day for each site.
4) Percent Top in Blue are the cheapest pitchers each day and are 40% or lower than the most expensive pitcher each day for each site.