Daily Pitcher Breakdown: May 10th, 2013

by PSporer Last Updated 2013-05-10 20:35:32

Welcome to the Daily Pitcher Breakdown. I will focus on the top selections of the day and give you a breakdown on why they are set up for success against their given opponent. Sometimes there will be a best of the rest section featuring guys who are likely low-dollar options with some upside for those of you who prefer to load your lineup with hitting studs.

There will also be a contingent of the starters that you can ignore each day. They offer no discernible upside so they aren’t worth your time. Because it is baseball and a 162-game season, there are going to be times when guys from the ignore group go off, but we’re dealing with probabilities in the daily game so the goal is to give yourself the best odds for success, not find needle in the proverbial haystack that finally doesn’t poke you.

LEGEND
Stats Shown in Red Are BELOW AVERAGE
Stats Shown in White are AVERAGE
Stats Shown in Green Are ABOVE AVERAGE
Stats Shown in Blue Are ELITE

For a description of each stat below and the tiers used for them, check out this pop up window FAQ Page by clicking here

Performance and Talent Statistics: May 10th, 2013

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STARTING PITCHER BREAKDOWN

Here is a look at the day’s slate of arms and how they might stack in their given matchups.

THE CREAM OF THE CROP:

Hisashi Iwakuma, SEA (v. OAK) – The Athletics lead baseball with 179 runs, nine more than the Orioles and Red Sox. Despite that run-scoring prowess, they are just 21st in baseball against righties with a 697 OPS and they are facing one of the hottest arms in the game in his pitcher-friendly ballpark. He handled the A’s in his season debut as well going six strong allowing just a run on two hits with seven strikeouts. His key to success has been not letting teams barrel him up.

His 14.9% line drive rate is ninth-best in baseball and a main factor in his .191 BABIP. That BABIP cannot sustain for an entire season, but that doesn’t mean it’ll shoot up to .350, either. The only real downside to Iwakuma is that his insane 1.61 ERA and 0.76 WHIP have put his price among the highest in the game at most sites.

Jeff Samardzija, CHC (at WAS) – For all of the attention that the Astros and even the Braves are getting for striking out, the Nationals have escaped criticism despite checking in fourth at 22.5% just behind those two and the White Sox. Their non-Harper offense has really been a disappointment collectively with a couple guys offering league average production and little else.

Worse yet, they struggle mightily against fastballs which plays right into the hands Samardzija’s 95-98 MPH heater. Samardzija has also done a brilliant job of keeping the ball down with a career-best 53.7% groundball rate which has helped curb some of the home run issues he had a year ago. Secondary indicators suggest that he has earned every single bit of his 3.09 ERA and 1.17 WHIP.

Alex Cobb, TB (v. SD) – He escaped Coors Field with a quality (3 ER in 6.7 IP) despite giving up three homers thanks in part to the fact that he doesn’t walk anyone. Free passes are the quickest way to turning a decent start into a nightmare. The Padres have been around a league-average offense this year, but they are actually struggling more on the road which is an interesting change from their previous trends of being stifled by Petco Park.

On the road, they fall to the 27th offense in the league by OPS against an arsenal like Cobb’s (fastball, curveball, and changeup). He’s actually done more damage with his fastball thanks to his command and control of the pitch and his strikeout rate is at a career-best 19.3% rate while his walk rate has tumbled to 4.7%, also a career-best.

Alexi Ogando, TEX (at HOU) – The Astros aren’t the completely inept offense most believed them to be after the first week of the season, but they make their hay against lefties with a 783 OPS against them (sixth-best in MLB) while righties have relegated them to the 26th-best OPS in baseball at 674. Ogando has already ripped them once this year throwing 6.3 shutout innings with a career-best 10 strikeouts.
They are particularly futile against righty fastballs – of which Ogando has a great one – posting just a 740 OPS, fifth-worst in the game. It was his slider that kept them off-balance in his season opener, though. He registered eight of his 10 strikeouts with the pitch. Houston isn’t a team you automatically pick on anymore, as they’ve proven repeatedly, but this is a great setup Ogando.

Max Scherzer, DET (v. CLE) – The Indians have quietly become one of the best offenses in the league mashing their opponents to death with a league-high 49 home runs which have helped them to a .475 SLG, also a league-best (yes, even ahead of Colorado). So why is Scherzer still listed in the CotC? Well, because he is still elite, of course. But also because he has a weapon that can thwart the Indians: his slider.

He’s been using as infrequently as ever at just 14%, but don’t be surprised if we see him lean on it tonight to take advantage of the Indians’ league-worst 380 OPS against righty sliders, especially since they pitch that he is using more in lieu of the slider has been the changeup which the Indians rip at a league-best 1017 OPS level. I’m not running from an uber-talented Scherzer even against a top offense, but with a full slate that includes several studs, there are likely better options available tonight.

Jon Lester, BOS (v. TOR) – Lester has one great and one terrible outing against the Jays this season. They look like they are starting to come out of their funk a bit, too, with 6.4 runs per game in their five. Of course, they scored 0.75 in their first three so who knows with the chameleon-esque team?! This is sort of a Scherzer situation, though the Jays haven’t done nearly the damage that the Indians have, rather they are capable of it and have recently popped this starter, but he is far too talented to run the other way.

If anything, I’d expect him to learn from the handful of mistakes he made in the shellacking on April 30th and look more like the seven shutout inning-guy from April 7th. In the end, there are just better, more affordable options with just as much upside rendering both Lester and Scherzer a bit moot even though they are still studs.

BEST THE REST:

Phil Hughes, NYY (at KC) – Hughes’ 3.60 season ERA obscures the fact that he has a 1.93 ERA in his last four starts having allowed no more than two earned while going six or more innings (in fact, he’s gone 7-7-6-8). He gets the Royals tonight who do their best work against lefties and actually struggle quite a bit against right-handers with the 25th-best OPS (686) overall, the 27th-best against righty fastballs (739), – Hughes’ go-to pitch – and the 26th-best against righty sliders (446) – Hughes’ strikeout pitch.

Matt Cain, SF (v. ATL) – I’m willing to bet that Cain isn’t “Lincecuming” us where we continue to say “he just can’t be this bad” only to realize “aw crap, he is this bad”. Home runs have been the problem which is command in the zone and that is a very fixable issue. Of course, home runs being your biggest problem as you head into a matchup against the second-best home run hitting team in the league is a scary proposition, but a year ago he would be in the Cream of the Crop category regardless of opponent so I’m confident the he fixes the problem. Like Josh Hamilton on the hitting side, sometimes a star talent at bargain bin pricing is just too much to pass up. Hamilton has rewarded us with back-to-back home run games, too. It’s Cain’s turn.

Tim Hudson, ATL (at SF) – At 37 he doesn’t post big strikeout games often, but if you want seven golden innings with three or fewer earned runs, Hudson is your guy. He still gets blasted from time-to-time, but that’s expected at his age. But you also expect him to play perfectly into the hands of the league’s most pitcher-friendly ballpark against a lineup that features only a couple huge threats and has a meager 721 OPS against sinkers, Tim’s top pitch.

Ian Kennedy, ARI (v. PHI) – Kennedy hasn’t pitcher like the best of anything this year with a terrible 5.19 ERA, but the Phillies offense isn’t exactly a powerhouse, either. They give him a nice opportunity at righting the ship a bit. He’s really only gotten smashed in two outings, which oddly enough came against the Dodgers and the Padres (in Petco, no less). He is still a very talented pitcher and we saw him go through this up/down pattern of two or three great starts followed by a dud throughout most of last year. His 2011 is the clear outlier now so don’t expect that, but I think he handles the Phillies rather easily tonight and his ugly season numbers will depress his price at multiple outlets.

Jason Hammel, BAL (at MIN) – Hammel has been more high floor than high ceiling so far in 2013 having not allowed more than four runs in any outing, but allowing at least two in every outing, too. He has yet to fan more than five in any single outing yet, either. He’s been steady, if unspectacular. He gets a second crack at the Twins who grinding out four runs in 6.7 innings against him back in early April. Their offense is far from special, but they nickel and dime pitchers usually via singles and walks. They are 20th in OPS against them so there is upside here and “Hammel(player-profile)”:/players/Jason_Hammel-11028’s season-long numbers leave his price plenty reasonable. I like him as a solid value play if you don’t want to spend on the superstuds.

Dan Straily, OAK (at SEA) – Straily’s season numbers are ugly because he only has three outings and one of them was terrible (6 ER in 4.7 IP against LAA), but he dominated Houston and did OK against the Yankees. He gets an offense worse than the Astros in their pitcher-friendly home park which sets up for another gem. The Mariners are 27th in OPS against righties at 665.

USE CAUTION:

Shelby Miller, STL (v. COL) – That Colorado offense is clicking home and away making them scary regardless of the pitcher they are facing. Miller has yet to allow more than three earned runs in a single outing and he’s been unquestionably excellent, but he doesn’t have the track record to inherently trust him regardless of matchup. He is basically a two-pitch pitcher (fastball, curveball) and the Rockies destroy both pitches from righties with a 994 OPS against curves and 890 against heaters good for first and fourth in the league. The odds that Miller hit his first 2013 road bump are the highest they have been all year.

Tony Cingrani, CIN (v. MIL) – The Brewers have been good against southpaws for the most part, though Derek Holland carved them up the other night in Miller Park. Cingrani isn’t quite the talent of Holland so I’d be cautious with the rookie phenom. I’m interested to see how he responds to his first road bump as a big leaguer, but even in defeat he still struck out five in six innings. The Ks will be there for him, the key is keeping the Brewers in the field of play – a lofty feat in Cincinnati’s ballpark.

Ross Detwiler, WAS (v. CHC) – Between his four-seamer and sinker, Detwiler essentially throws fastballs 90% of the time which makes his season success (2.50 ERA) about 328 times more impressive. At 13-21 the Cubs feel like an easy target, but their horrendous bullpen (4.57 ERA, sixth-worst in the league) has been a bigger reason than their offense. They are actually pretty solid offensively, especially against righty fastballs where they have an 816 (11th in MLB) thanks to some nice platoons that they have set up. Plus, Detwiler’s 1.39 WHIP suggests that his 2.50 ERA has some luck built into it. I’m a fan of Detwiler’s game, but this isn’t a great matchup for his fastball-heavy approach.

Wandy Rodriguez, PIT (at NYM) – Wandy has given up three or fewer in all of his starts but one and that was a seven run shellacking against the Brewers in Miller Park. The Mets don’t do a lot against southpaws so this sets up nicely for Rodriguez. Their 709 OPS against lefty fastballs is sixth-worst in the league and he relies on the pitch nearly two-thirds of the time at 62.3% and he’s held opponents to a .191 average with the pitch.

Wade Davis, KC (v. NYY) – Davis’ numbers are heavily inflated by a pair of bad against two of the league’s best offenses as the Tigers and Indians clubbed him for 11 runs in just 8.3 innings. He has a 2.05 ERA in his other 22 innings spanning four starts. The Yankees offense has started to come down to earth a bit as their replacements for the stars start to play as such. In their last 10 games against righties, they have posted just a 682 OPS, 20th in baseball. It’s been just 637 in seven games during May.

Jose Fernandez, MIA (at LAD) – Getting seven shutout innings with just one hit and one walk allowed is the exception and not the rule for this 20-year old phenom. That he made it seven innings on just 82 pitches despite also including nine strikeouts is amazing, but certainly not something you can bet on getting consistently. I still think he is a five-inning pitcher for the most part making it hard to start him in even the most favorable matchups because getting a big outing is so key in daily fantasy.
Matt Magill, LAD (v. MIA) – He has one good and one bad start in his major league career. Playing against the awful Marlins gives him a shot at registering that second good start tonight. There just isn’t much work to go off of with him so you’re betting on Miami’s ineptitude more than Magill’s talent, which is that of a fourth starter at his peak.

Yovani Gallardo, MIL (at CIN) – The Reds, despite plenty of star power, haven’t done much against righties this year (.234 AVG, 687 OPS), but Gallardo hasn’t done much against anyone. He had a run of nice starts against the Giants, Padres, and Pirates, but always seems to erase his good work with a dud. Worst of all is that he’s not striking guys at anywhere near the clip we are used to from him. He’s been in the 24-25% range for his career, but so far this year he’s at 14.3% for some reason! I need to see a few good starts in a row before I can trust him right now. Something feels off with him.

YOU CAN SAFELY IGNORE:

• Shaun Marcum, NYM
• Corey Kluber, CLE
• Dylan Axelrod, CWS
• Tyler Cloyd, PHI
• Edinson Volquez, SD
• Mike Pelfrey, MIN
• Jon Garland, COL
• Dallas Keuchel, HOU
• Barry Enright, LAA
• Ramon Ortiz, TOR

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PARK FACTORS: MAY 10TH, 2013

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Starting Pitcher Salaries: May 10th, 2013

Shown below are starting pitcher salaries as well as the percent of top statistics.

• Percent of Top (Top) – Player salary divided by the most expensive pitcher each day. So if Felix Hernandez is $9,000 on FanDuel and Justin Verlander is $4,500, Verlanders Top stat would be 50.

1) Percent Top in Red are the most expensive. Between 80% and 100% of the most expensive pitcher each day for each site.
2) Percent Top in Yellow cost between 60% and 80% of the most expensive pitcher each day for each site.
3) Percent Top in Green cost between 40% and 60% of the most expensive pitcher each day for each site.
4) Percent Top in Blue are the cheapest pitchers each day and are 40% or lower than the most expensive pitcher each day for each site.