Daily Pitcher Breakdown: May 13th, 2013

by PSporer Last Updated 2013-05-13 20:54:38

Welcome to the Daily Pitcher Breakdown. I will focus on the top selections of the day and give you a breakdown on why they are set up for success against their given opponent. Sometimes there will be a best of the rest section featuring guys who are likely low-dollar options with some upside for those of you who prefer to load your lineup with hitting studs.

There will also be a contingent of the starters that you can ignore each day. They offer no discernible upside so they aren’t worth your time. Because it is baseball and a 162-game season, there are going to be times when guys from the ignore group go off, but we’re dealing with probabilities in the daily game so the goal is to give yourself the best odds for success, not find needle in the proverbial haystack that finally doesn’t poke you.

LEGEND
Stats Shown in Red Are BELOW AVERAGE
Stats Shown in White are AVERAGE
Stats Shown in Green Are ABOVE AVERAGE
Stats Shown in Blue Are ELITE

For a description of each stat below and the tiers used for them, check out this pop up window FAQ Page by clicking here

Performance and Talent Statistics: May 13th, 2013

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STARTING PITCHER BREAKDOWN

Here is a look at the day’s slate of arms and how they might stack in their given matchups.

THE CREAM OF THE CROP:

Anibal Sanchez, DET (v. HOU) – To give you an idea of how good Sanchez’s season has been, consider his last starts: they have been two of his worst of the season and yet both were quality starts that included a 34% strikeout rate and 4% walk rate in 12 innings of work. He gave up six total runs, though only five were earned, and the only thing that made them two of his “worst” were the 13 hits. In short, he’s been excellent. The Astros actually aren’t terrible at run scoring, but their propensity for strikeouts can render their offense useless for games at a time. More importantly, even if they are putting up a few runs off of your guy, he is still netting a healthy strikeout total to completely cancel it out and that is why is Sanchez against the ‘Stros is the top pick for today.

Jordan Zimmermann, WAS (at LAD) – Speaking of strikeouts, that is about the only knock on JZ’s game to date, but he has 15 punchouts in his last two starts totaling 15 innings during which he has allowed just one run on nine hits and a walk. There haven’t been many pitchers better than Zimmermann this season and he gets the fifth-worst team by OPS against right-handers tonight in the Dodgers. There are some dangerous hitters, but Zimmermann is on a level where opponent doesn’t even matter right now.

Lance Lynn, STL (v. NYM) – Lost in the glare of Adam Wainwright and Shelby Miller being two of the best pitchers in all of baseball is the fact that Lynn has been fantastic as well. In fact, the entire Cardinals rotation has been unreal, but Lynn has clearly been third in line behind Waino and Miller. His fastball effectiveness (4-seamer and 2-seamer) has carried the load limiting batters to a .198 AVG and 652 OPS. His breaking pitches are striking batters at a 26% clip as well, though he doesn’t throw it much with 76% of his pitches being a variation of his fastball. Like Sanchez and Zimm, he gets a favorable matchup facing a modest Mets lineup so you can really just pick the best-priced of those three and feel good about your choice.

A.J. Burnett, PIT (v. MIL) – The Brewers have been a solid offense this year when you add it all up, but their damage has been done at home so heading to PNC Park against a tough righty like Burnett isn’t nearly as worrisome. They have a 658 OPS, 21st in baseball, against righties on the road while striking out 22% of the time. In those same scenarios, they are hitting a pathetic .178 with 479 OPS against right-handed curveballs which is Burnett’s best pitch.

BEST THE REST:

Mike Minor, ATL (at ARI) – The home run issues that have plagued Minor throughout his career have crept back up in his last three outings as he has allowed five longballs after allowing just one in his first four starts. Now in the two most recent of that trio, he has only allowed four runs in 14 innings, but home runs at the quickest way to an implosion start. Working in his favor is the fact that the D’Backs aren’t very good against southpaws totaling just a 659 OPS at home – 24th in baseball. They struggle most against curveballs form them with a pathetic .111 AVG and 291 OPS, though their .176 AVG and 511 OPS against all off-speed pitches from southpaws are barely better. He needs to avoid Cody Ross and Paul Goldschmidt, both of whom smash lefties, but beyond that this lineup doesn’t stack up as an overly difficult matchup for Minor.

Wade Miley, ARI (v. ATL) – The interesting matchup here tonight will be the Braves v. Miley’s slider. His slider has been devastating. It’s yielding a meager .174 AVG and 469 OPS with a 42% strikeout rate while the Braves are baseball’s fifth-best lineup against lefty sliders with a 689 OPS (league average is 561). While the Braves are unquestionably better, it is similar to the Astros whereby your starter can allowed a few runs against them, but make it up and then some with strikeouts.

USE CAUTION:

Travis Wood, CHC (v. COL) – I see the incredible start to his season and I see the 86%/0% gem/implosion ratio, but I just can’t get myself to fully trust Wood as an elite option. It’s been a tremendous seven-start run, but he’s more of a 4-someting ERA guy than a 2-something ERA guy. Despite the Cardinals embarrassing them with Miller and Wainwright this weekend, the Rockies are hitting on the road so their numbers aren’t just Coors-inflated.

A.J. Griffin, OAK (v. TEX) – A pair of impressive road starts in New York and Cleveland have brought Griffin’s ERA back under 4.00, but now he gets a third straight tough outing at home against the Rangers. They hit righties hard, particularly fastballs which has been the one pitch plaguing Griffin this year. The Rangers are in third in baseball with an 875 OPS against heaters and Griffin is allowing an 840 with his. The home park might help, though he’s allowed an 852 there so far this year. Even in those two big starts against tough opponents in May, he’s still allowed an 814 OPS off of the heater.

Hector Santiago, CWS (at MIN) – The Twins aren’t quite the bottom-feeder that I think most perceive them to be this year. They are league-average against lefties so don’t expect it to be guaranteed that Santiago just runs through them. He’s been great in his two starts, but it’s hard to go off of his numbers too much since most of them were built in relief. I think he has sneaky bargain potential, but more because he is a solid arm than the Twins being inept since they are better than most realize.

Justin Grimm, TEX (at OAK) – Grimm’s come back to earth a bit in his last two, though that was expected and even with the regression his strikeouts have remained strong. The only problem is that those Ks need to remain high to offset his propensity for yielding hits as he has given up five or more in each of his five starts which cuts deep into his point total at most outlets. Thankfully he has a 7 K and two 9 K games under his belt, too. The A’s have been reeling, finishing a horrid 3-8 road trip to start May scoring just 2.6 runs per game in that time. Getting home is a great remedy for that, but Grimm might be able to keep him in their swoon a bit longer.

Josh Beckett, LAD (v. WAS) – Beckett has been as bad as his numbers suggest which is seen quickly in the comparison of his 5.13 ERA to his 3.99 SIERA. His 2.8 K/BB ratio is strong, his 70% LOB rate is fine, and he’s almost 1:1 on his groundball to flyball ratio. He is getting barreled up too often leading to a .320 BABIP that can come down with better command in the zone and most importantly his sky high 17% HR/FB is due for some regression curbing his 1.8 HR/9 rate. He’s had some bad luck, but you can’t chalk all of this up to misfortune. Some of this is absolutely his fault and he needs to make a change.

Bud Norris, HOU (at DET) – He’s been fantastic this year, unquestionably the best Astros arm, but the bet you’re making with him is that he tames the Tigers lineup twice in 10 days. He held them to just two runs in seven innings back on May 3rd. Keeping this potent lineup off the bases and scoreboard is no easy feat so I think there are better bargain options to mess with like Griffin and Santiago.

YOU CAN SAFELY IGNORE:

• Jeremy Hefner, NYM
• Juan Nicasio, COL
• Marco Estrada, MIL
• Joe Blanton, LAA
• Pedro Hernandez, MIN
• Luis Mendoza, KC*

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PARK FACTORS: MAY 13th, 2013

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Starting Pitcher Salaries: May 13th, 2013

Shown below are starting pitcher salaries as well as the percent of top statistics.

• Percent of Top (Top) – Player salary divided by the most expensive pitcher each day. So if Felix Hernandez is $9,000 on FanDuel and Justin Verlander is $4,500, Verlanders Top stat would be 50.

1) Percent Top in Red are the most expensive. Between 80% and 100% of the most expensive pitcher each day for each site.
2) Percent Top in Yellow cost between 60% and 80% of the most expensive pitcher each day for each site.
3) Percent Top in Green cost between 40% and 60% of the most expensive pitcher each day for each site.
4) Percent Top in Blue are the cheapest pitchers each day and are 40% or lower than the most expensive pitcher each day for each site.