Daily Pitcher Breakdown: May 23rd
The Daily Pitcher Breakdown goes in-depth to look at nearly every pitching option, with a focus on the best targets for each night. Sometimes there will be a best of the rest section featuring guys who are likely low-dollar options with some upside for those of you who prefer to load your lineup with hitting studs.
There will also be a contingent of the starters that you can ignore each day. They offer no discernible upside so they aren’t worth your time. Because it is baseball and a 162-game season, there are going to be times when guys from the ignore group go off, but we’re dealing with probabilities in the daily game so the goal is to give yourself the best odds for success, not find needle in the proverbial haystack that finally doesn’t poke you.
LEGEND
Stats Shown in Red Are BELOW AVERAGE
Stats Shown in White are AVERAGE
Stats Shown in Green Are ABOVE AVERAGE
Stats Shown in Blue Are ELITE
View descriptions of stats below and Legend FAQ
Daily Pitcher Chart
| Pitcher | TM | OPP | IP | ERA | SIERA | WHIP | GEM% | K% | BB% | HR/9 | G/F |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| House | CLE | BAL | 1 | 0.00 | -1.66 | 0.00 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.00 | 3.00 | |
| Norris | BAL | CLE | 50.1 | 3.58 | 4.26 | 1.14 | 25.0% | 16.1% | 6.8% | 1.07 | 1.18 |
| Zimmermann | WAS | PIT | 42.2 | 3.59 | 3.10 | 1.40 | 33.3% | 23.0% | 4.4% | 0.84 | 1.41 |
| Morton | PIT | WAS | 50.1 | 3.22 | 4.15 | 1.28 | 44.4% | 14.2% | 7.8% | 0.54 | 2.47 |
| Kershaw | LAD | PHI | 22.1 | 4.43 | 2.02 | 1.36 | 50.0% | 29.8% | 3.2% | 0.40 | 2.25 |
| Hernandez | PHI | LAD | 40.2 | 3.98 | 3.86 | 1.49 | 28.6% | 18.9% | 9.7% | 0.89 | 2.46 |
| Kazmir | OAK | TOR | 52.2 | 2.39 | 3.41 | 1.03 | 55.6% | 20.4% | 5.7% | 0.34 | 1.65 |
| Hendriks | TOR | OAK | |||||||||
| Baker | TEX | DET | 5.1 | 3.38 | 5.27 | 0.98 | 9.1% | 4.6% | 0.00 | 0.50 | |
| Sanchez | DET | TEX | 23 | 3.13 | 3.81 | 1.13 | 25.5% | 11.7% | 0.00 | 0.88 | |
| Anderson | ARI | NYM | 10.2 | 5.06 | 4.16 | 1.18 | 19.1% | 7.1% | 2.53 | 0.62 | |
| Colon | NYM | ARI | 57.1 | 5.34 | 3.78 | 1.35 | 33.3% | 17.3% | 2.4% | 1.41 | 0.86 |
| Miller | STL | CIN | 51.2 | 2.79 | 4.83 | 1.43 | 22.2% | 18.2% | 13.2% | 1.39 | 1.23 |
| Bailey | CIN | STL | 51.1 | 5.44 | 3.71 | 1.59 | 22.2% | 20.1% | 7.9% | 1.58 | 1.67 |
| Lackey | BOS | TBR | 58.1 | 4.01 | 3.32 | 1.29 | 66.7% | 22.9% | 5.3% | 1.08 | 1.04 |
| Archer | TBR | BOS | 51 | 4.59 | 3.96 | 1.45 | 33.3% | 18.6% | 9.1% | 0.53 | 1.95 |
| Estrada | MIL | MIA | 49.1 | 3.28 | 3.47 | 1.10 | 33.3% | 23.7% | 7.2% | 1.82 | 0.92 |
| Koehler | MIA | MIL | 56 | 2.25 | 4.64 | 1.11 | 77.8% | 16.2% | 10.5% | 0.64 | 1.35 |
| Lyles | COL | ATL | 54 | 3.50 | 4.05 | 1.22 | 66.7% | 15.7% | 9.0% | 0.67 | 2.70 |
| Floyd | ATL | COL | 13.1 | 2.70 | 2.59 | 1.15 | 100.0% | 24.1% | 3.7% | 0.68 | 2.71 |
| Kuroda | NYY | CWS | 48.2 | 4.62 | 3.58 | 1.24 | 11.1% | 17.6% | 3.4% | 1.11 | 1.43 |
| Noesi | CWS | NYY | 28.1 | 7.31 | 3.98 | 1.74 | 18.9% | 7.6% | 1.27 | 0.90 | |
| Duffy | KCR | LAA | 25.1 | 1.42 | 4.24 | 0.84 | 66.7% | 19.0% | 10.0% | 0.00 | 0.93 |
| Wilson | LAA | KCR | 62.2 | 3.16 | 3.22 | 1.13 | 55.6% | 24.6% | 8.5% | 0.86 | 1.92 |
| Peacock | HOU | SEA | 38.1 | 5.17 | 4.53 | 1.73 | 16.7% | 21.9% | 14.6% | 1.41 | 1.07 |
| Hernandez | SEA | HOU | 59.1 | 3.03 | 2.90 | 1.12 | 60.0% | 24.4% | 4.9% | 0.46 | 1.74 |
| Jackson | CHC | SDP | 54.1 | 3.98 | 3.79 | 1.35 | 22.2% | 21.4% | 8.7% | 0.33 | 1.43 |
| Stauffer | SDP | CHC | 15.2 | 2.30 | 3.68 | 1.38 | 21.9% | 12.5% | 0.00 | 2.33 | |
| Gibson | MIN | SFG | 45 | 4.20 | 5.10 | 1.47 | 50.0% | 10.6% | 10.1% | 0.20 | 1.71 |
| Lincecum | SFG | MIN | 49.1 | 4.74 | 3.46 | 1.57 | 22.2% | 23.7% | 8.2% | 1.28 | 1.43 |
Here is a look at the day’s slate of arms and how they might stack in their given matchups.
If a guy isn’t listed, he’s just kind of a neutral option – I’m not using him, but I’m not stacking against him, either.
BEST BUYS:
These aren’t just low-cost guys with good matchups and/or venues, but you will also find expensive studs in here with great matchups.
Clayton Kershaw LAD (at PHI) – I’m reticent to overreact to Kershaw’s dud against the D’Backs, but I’m sure many folks will be and while he will definitely be used plenty, it will be lower than we are used to seeing for him, especially against a weaker opponent. The last time he was pummeled like that was back in July of 2012 when the Cards got to him for a 5.7 IP/8 ER and he responded with a five-hit shutout of the Giants. He’s still going to cost you a pretty penny on Friday, but I think he will deliver up to expectations.
Felix Hernandez SEA (v. HOU) – In two starts against Houston this year, Hernandez has been solid-but-unspectacular with a 3.00 ERA, 1.33 WHIP, and 2.5 K/BB ratio in 12 IP and yet I have no reservations about using him in this third matchup against them with the expectations of a huge outing. Hernandez is 10 starts into another brilliant season lowering his FIP for the third straight season, this time sitting at 2.43 (compared to his 2.94 ERA).
Jordan Zimmermann WAS (at PIT) – Zimm’s growth in 2014, particularly jumps in strikeout and swinging strike rates, has been masked by an unseemly .367 BABIP – a rate markedly higher than his .293 career mark. The 4.3 K/BB ratio, heavy groundball lean, and excellent home run rate point to much better pitcher than his 3.70 ERA. I expect that and his 1.42 WHIP to start coming down and the middling offense of the Pirates will likely be his first victim on his way back to the high-2.00s, low-3.00s ERA guy we’ve seen for the last three seasons.
Anibal Sanchez DET (v. TEX) – The Tigers turn to Sanchez to snap their four game losing streak and he should deliver at least six strong innings to help in ending the skid. He’s had a tough time going deep this year with just one outing beyond five innings with rain delays, high pitch counts, and blisters being behind his 4.7 IP/start rate thus far. Even if you only get six innings from him, his price has been depressed enough at most outlets that he will still be a strong play, plus there is the upside for a huge effort.
C.J. Wilson LAA (v. KC) – Wilson bounced back from his meltdown in Toronto with a shutout against Tampa Bay continuing an excellent season for the veteran lefty. He’s going nearly seven innings per start with nearly a strikeout-per-inning and a second straight season of cutting his walk rate (down to 8.5% this year). The strikeouts might not come as easily against the contact-heavy Royals, but that contact is often quite punchless as evidenced by their .291 wOBA against southpaws.
Marco Estrada MIL (at MIA) – Estrada has one goal Friday night: don’t let Giancarlo Stanton beat you. Homers have plagued Estrada throughout his career and especially so this year with a 2.0 HR/9, but he’s minimized the damaged with eight of his league-leading 12 bombs going as solo shots. He’s certainly going to the right park to stifle home runs and while the Marlins have been strong at home, I’m still trusting Estrada here. Even accounting for the fact that he has a homer issue, his 17% HR/FB rate is still tracking well above the league average of 10.5% and his career mark of 12.3%.
Hiroki Kuroda NYY (at CWS) – After a shaky April (5.28 ERA), Kuroda has rebounded with a nice May so far turning in a 3.86 ERA with a 1.05 WHIP and 25/3 K/BB ratio in 25.7 IP. An inflated 19% HR/FB is the only thinking keeping him from a prettier ERA in May as evidenced by his 2.66 xFIP (which normalizes HR rate). Meanwhile, the White Sox have cooled after a huge April and they are missing their biggest offensive force with Jose Abreu on the disabled list. It’s not unreasonable to bet on Kuroda shaving a full run off of his 4.61 ERA the rest of the way.
VALUE PLAYS:
These are guys aren’t inherently good buys, but they have a nice matchup and they’re likely to be very cheap so you can save with them and take the gamble that they come through with a strong effort.
Edwin Jackson CHC (at SD) – I think y’all would roster me against the Padres so it’s not like we’re looking at a hidden gem with E-Jax, but in addition to facing the anemic Padres offense in their spacious home park, he’s also pitching brilliantly right now with a 1.80 ERA in three May starts with a 23/3 K/BB ratio in 20 IP.
Bartolo Colon NYM (v. ARI) – Colon has been a total boom/bust play this year. He has a 12.86 ERA in three starts where he’s allowed at least 6 ER spanning just 15.3 IP this year and then a 2.57 ERA in his other six starts spanning 42 IP. His brilliant 7.2 K/BB ratio can’t be ignored, either. Watch out for rain, but otherwise he’s priced to buy.
Chris Archer TB (v. BOS) – Archer has had a weird season so far. He looked great out of the gate, sputtered in Baltimore, but still finished with a fantastic 25/5 K/BB ratio in April which portended an ERA better than the 4.11 he was saddled with, but then we’ve seen the skills collapse in May with a 16/15 K/BB ratio including two 5 BB games. I still believe in the stuff, though, and I have a hard time not fitting him in a lineup or two while his price is this low.
Jordan Lyles COL (at ATL) – I was reticent to jump on the Lyles Bandwagon back in April because of the weak supporting skills and that hasn’t really changed in May and then the Padres of all teams pummeled him (though it was in Coors) as he walked six in just 3.3 IP. Hopefully that disastrous last outing scares people off for this prime matchup against the Braves, who have been stuck in neutral offensively.
STAYAWAYS:
These guys should just be avoided either because of their matchup, talent-level, or both. These guys are often the ones you’ll want to stack against if you use that method.
Scott Kazmir OAK (at TOR) – I’m not stacking against him, but Toronto is a stayaway team right now and Kaz is too expensive to risk it.
Gavin Floyd ATL (v. COL) – I’m not touching anyone against the Rockies, either, whether home or away. After a rough April on the road, they’re become a juggernaut regardless of venue in May.
Shelby Miller STL (at CIN) – His 2.79 ERA is so unbelievably flimsy right now. I have no idea how he’s doing it. The 5.33 FIP, 5.1 BB/9, and 1.4 HR/9 agree. That gaudy ERA will keep his price high, but you couldn’t pay me to use him.
Tom Koehler MIA (v. MIL) – I just can’t trust this 2.25 ERA right now. The 0.64 ERA at home is even less reliable when you look at the 3.21 FIP accompanying it. He has a .161 BABIP and 91.3% LOB rate at home, but just a 12.5% strikeout rate and 8.7% walk rate. The skills simply aren’t there to buy into this success. There is some discernible talent here, but more for a high-3.00s, low-4.00s ERA pitcher, not a stud-like 2.25 that we’ve seen to date.
Chase Anderson ARI (at NYM) – The Mets aren’t particularly good on offense, but there is nothing special about what we’ve seen from Anderson so far, either. He’s been a home run machine and even the minor league work that earned him the call this year was done at Double-A as a 26-year old.
- Bud Norris BAL (v. CLE)
- Scott Baker TEX (at DET)
- Roberto Hernandez PHI (v. LAD)
- Hector Noesi CWS (v. NYY)
- Liam Hendriks (TOR) (v. OAK)
- Tim Lincecum SF (v. MIN)
Pitcher Advanced Stats and Stats Against
| Pitcher | wOBA vs L | ERA vs L | wOBA vs R | ERA vs R | AVG | OPS | BABIP | FIP | AVG-A | Pit/G | Strk% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| House | 0.000 | 0.243 | 0.692 | 0.000 | 3.08 | 0 | 11.00 | 72.7% | |||
| Norris | 0.373 | 5.19 | 0.289 | 2.85 | 0.267 | 0.771 | 0.253 | 4.51 | 0.232 | 101.88 | 64.0% |
| Zimmermann | 0.308 | 3.45 | 0.286 | 3.23 | 0.246 | 0.689 | 0.370 | 3.03 | 0.295 | 84.88 | 68.6% |
| Morton | 0.353 | 4.41 | 0.273 | 2.49 | 0.236 | 0.670 | 0.277 | 4.11 | 0.244 | 98.00 | 64.0% |
| Kershaw | 0.212 | 1.50 | 0.252 | 2.21 | 0.274 | 0.776 | 0.419 | 1.56 | 0.297 | 83.25 | 70.6% |
| Hernandez | 0.385 | 5.92 | 0.311 | 3.71 | 0.275 | 0.780 | 0.302 | 4.11 | 0.255 | 71.40 | 61.8% |
| Kazmir | 0.264 | 3.29 | 0.323 | 3.79 | 0.243 | 0.741 | 0.267 | 2.85 | 0.215 | 88.78 | 65.3% |
| Hendriks | 0.405 | 5.96 | 0.381 | 8.14 | 0.260 | 0.770 | |||||
| Baker | 0.252 | 2.25 | 0.302 | 4.50 | 0.276 | 0.759 | 0.222 | 3.45 | 0.2 | 79.00 | 60.8% |
| Sanchez | 0.295 | 3.45 | 0.246 | 1.72 | 0.244 | 0.665 | 0.254 | 2.43 | 0.181 | 85.60 | 62.4% |
| Anderson | 0.329 | 7.36 | 0.354 | 3.86 | 0.218 | 0.622 | 0.214 | 6.08 | 0.231 | 84.50 | 63.3% |
| Colon | 0.309 | 3.52 | 0.299 | 3.04 | 0.252 | 0.695 | 0.330 | 4.04 | 0.296 | 96.44 | 68.9% |
| Miller | 0.344 | 3.71 | 0.276 | 2.54 | 0.243 | 0.681 | 0.255 | 5.34 | 0.233 | 94.56 | 61.0% |
| Bailey | 0.354 | 4.29 | 0.272 | 3.60 | 0.262 | 0.698 | 0.348 | 4.68 | 0.3 | 100.89 | 63.5% |
| Lackey | 0.288 | 3.09 | 0.343 | 4.37 | 0.249 | 0.694 | 0.325 | 3.39 | 0.267 | 101.22 | 69.7% |
| Archer | 0.324 | 3.98 | 0.269 | 3.16 | 0.244 | 0.688 | 0.327 | 3.47 | 0.27 | 96.33 | 62.2% |
| Estrada | 0.277 | 3.31 | 0.319 | 4.13 | 0.259 | 0.751 | 0.244 | 4.76 | 0.223 | 101.63 | 62.7% |
| Koehler | 0.289 | 4.02 | 0.340 | 3.69 | 0.249 | 0.691 | 0.213 | 4.13 | 0.189 | 98.56 | 60.8% |
| Lyles | 0.331 | 5.64 | 0.353 | 4.35 | 0.224 | 0.628 | 0.261 | 4.02 | 0.23 | 95.11 | 60.0% |
| Floyd | 0.381 | 5.23 | 0.302 | 3.18 | 0.290 | 0.823 | 0.316 | 2.55 | 0.25 | 98.00 | 67.9% |
| Kuroda | 0.327 | 4.07 | 0.275 | 3.00 | 0.264 | 0.743 | 0.303 | 3.70 | 0.269 | 95.88 | 63.1% |
| Noesi | 0.430 | 7.33 | 0.400 | 6.99 | 0.250 | 0.708 | 0.376 | 4.21 | 0.32 | 52.40 | 63.5% |
| Duffy | 0.217 | 0.64 | 0.258 | 2.08 | 0.263 | 0.751 | 0.162 | 3.12 | 0.126 | 46.22 | 60.8% |
| Wilson | 0.222 | 2.28 | 0.326 | 3.70 | 0.251 | 0.662 | 0.272 | 3.48 | 0.218 | 117.44 | 59.4% |
| Peacock | 0.379 | 6.38 | 0.302 | 4.02 | 0.230 | 0.675 | 0.318 | 5.11 | 0.263 | 75.11 | 60.8% |
| Hernandez | 0.294 | 3.40 | 0.271 | 2.66 | 0.217 | 0.667 | 0.304 | 2.47 | 0.234 | 100.44 | 66.4% |
| Jackson | 0.357 | 5.66 | 0.321 | 4.15 | 0.219 | 0.612 | 0.329 | 3.02 | 0.257 | 97.00 | 63.3% |
| Stauffer | 0.236 | 3.56 | 0.341 | 3.46 | 0.229 | 0.644 | 0.310 | 2.82 | 0.232 | 24.09 | 58.9% |
| Gibson | 0.359 | 4.98 | 0.326 | 6.13 | 0.240 | 0.703 | 0.288 | 3.77 | 0.258 | 91.63 | 57.8% |
| Lincecum | 0.317 | 4.27 | 0.339 | 4.65 | 0.252 | 0.721 | 0.366 | 3.91 | 0.294 | 96.67 | 64.0% |
Starting Pitcher Salaries
Click the image below to view pitcher salaries by each daily fantasy site along with their percent of top statistics.
- Percent of Top (Top) – Player salary divided by the most expensive pitcher each day. So if Felix Hernandez is $9,000 on FanDuel and Justin Verlander is $4,500, Verlanders Top stat would be 50.
NOTE: Button for pitcher salary chart above opens in popup window