Daily Pitcher Breakdown: May 28th
The Daily Pitcher Breakdown goes in-depth to look at nearly every pitching option, with a focus on the best targets for each night. Sometimes there will be a best of the rest section featuring guys who are likely low-dollar options with some upside for those of you who prefer to load your lineup with hitting studs.
There will also be a contingent of the starters that you can ignore each day. They offer no discernible upside so they aren’t worth your time. Because it is baseball and a 162-game season, there are going to be times when guys from the ignore group go off, but we’re dealing with probabilities in the daily game so the goal is to give yourself the best odds for success, not find needle in the proverbial haystack that finally doesn’t poke you.
LEGEND
Stats Shown in Red Are BELOW AVERAGE
Stats Shown in White are AVERAGE
Stats Shown in Green Are ABOVE AVERAGE
Stats Shown in Blue Are ELITE
View descriptions of stats below and Legend FAQ
Daily Pitcher Chart
| Pitcher | TM | OPP | IP | ERA | SIERA | WHIP | GEM% | K% | BB% | HR/9 | G/F |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alvarez | MIA | WAS | 61.2 | 3.21 | 3.85 | 1.37 | 40.0% | 14.5% | 6.1% | 0.58 | 2.29 |
| Zimmermann | WAS | MIA | 54.2 | 3.95 | 3.47 | 1.44 | 30.0% | 19.8% | 5.1% | 0.82 | 1.46 |
| Lyles | COL | PHI | 60 | 3.45 | 3.87 | 1.22 | 70.0% | 16.5% | 8.5% | 0.60 | 2.72 |
| Hernandez | PHI | COL | 47 | 3.83 | 4.13 | 1.51 | 37.5% | 17.7% | 10.2% | 0.96 | 2.17 |
| Archer | TBR | TOR | 57 | 4.11 | 3.78 | 1.44 | 40.0% | 21.1% | 9.7% | 0.47 | 1.89 |
| Hendriks | TOR | TBR | 5.2 | 1.59 | 5.62 | 1.15 | 13.0% | 13.0% | 1.59 | 0.75 | |
| Floyd | ATL | BOS | 25.1 | 2.49 | 3.04 | 1.27 | 50.0% | 22.2% | 4.6% | 0.71 | 1.85 |
| Lackey | BOS | ATL | 65.1 | 3.58 | 3.36 | 1.24 | 70.0% | 21.6% | 5.1% | 0.96 | 1.23 |
| House | CLE | CWS | 7 | 6.43 | 4.74 | 1.86 | 3.2% | 6.5% | 2.57 | 2.83 | |
| Noesi | CWS | CLE | 34.1 | 6.82 | 4.36 | 1.70 | 17.8% | 9.6% | 1.31 | 0.89 | |
| Norris | BAL | MIL | 56.1 | 3.83 | 4.20 | 1.18 | 22.2% | 16.9% | 7.4% | 1.12 | 1.16 |
| Gallardo | MIL | BAL | 59 | 3.51 | 4.01 | 1.25 | 50.0% | 16.4% | 7.6% | 1.07 | 1.81 |
| Saunders | TEX | MIN | 3.2 | 9.82 | 4.93 | 2.81 | 18.2% | 13.6% | 2.45 | 0.86 | |
| Gibson | MIN | TEX | 50 | 4.68 | 4.86 | 1.42 | 44.4% | 11.4% | 9.1% | 0.54 | 1.65 |
| Kuroda | NYY | STL | 59.1 | 4.55 | 3.60 | 1.30 | 30.0% | 18.0% | 4.3% | 1.37 | 1.43 |
| Miller | STL | NYY | 56.2 | 3.18 | 4.66 | 1.41 | 20.0% | 18.7% | 12.5% | 1.43 | 1.13 |
| Stauffer | SDP | ARI | 23.2 | 1.90 | 3.30 | 1.25 | 24.0% | 10.4% | 0.38 | 1.88 | |
| Anderson | ARI | SDP | 10.2 | 5.06 | 4.14 | 1.18 | 19.1% | 7.1% | 2.53 | 0.62 | |
| Sanchez | DET | OAK | 35 | 2.83 | 3.77 | 1.11 | 14.3% | 22.7% | 9.9% | 0.00 | 1.40 |
| Kazmir | OAK | DET | 59.2 | 2.56 | 3.58 | 1.01 | 50.0% | 19.0% | 5.5% | 0.45 | 1.49 |
| Bailey | CIN | LAD | 57.1 | 5.34 | 3.68 | 1.59 | 20.0% | 19.6% | 7.8% | 1.41 | 1.83 |
| Kershaw | LAD | CIN | 28.1 | 3.49 | 2.16 | 1.25 | 60.0% | 31.6% | 5.1% | 0.32 | 1.86 |
| Wilson | LAA | SEA | 69 | 3.00 | 3.49 | 1.13 | 60.0% | 23.2% | 9.1% | 0.78 | 1.72 |
| Hernandez | SEA | LAA | 75.1 | 2.75 | 2.76 | 1.07 | 63.6% | 24.3% | 4.6% | 0.36 | 2.04 |
Here is a look at the day’s slate of arms and how they might stack in their given matchups.
If a guy isn’t listed, he’s just kind of a neutral option – I’m not using him, but I’m not stacking against him, either.
BEST BUYS:
These aren’t just low-cost guys with good matchups and/or venues, but you will also find expensive studs in here with great matchups.
Clayton Kershaw LAD (v. CIN) – The overreaction to his dud in Arizona created something of a buying opportunity his last time out, even at his always-high price. He went out and dropped six scoreless on Philly with just two hits and three walks allowed and nine punchouts en route to a win. He gets an anemic Reds offense that lacks Joey Votto making him an easy target, again even with his huge price tag.
Felix Hernandez SEA (v. LAA) – The Angels are usually a team I’m leery of, but Felix is a different breed, of course. He’s matchup-proof for one, but he’s also been brilliant this year. He’s still carrying nearly a strikeout per inning despite a strikeout-less outing four outings ago. Since that outing in Oakland, he has a 2.78 ERA and 21/2 K/BB ratio in 22.7 IP. He never comes cheaply, but he very rarely fails to deliver.
John Lackey BOS (at ATL) – I think Lackey is overlooked these last two years despite playing for a high-profile team like the Red Sox. We’ve seen the best skills of his career the last two years and yet you never really hear much about him or see him targeted on the daily landscape. The Braves are in first place in spite of their offense and while they have some big bats, they’re all prone to the strikeout – something Lackey’s doing at the second-best rate of his career at 21.6%. He’s been a bit volatile with three outings of 5+ ER, but he hasn’t allowed more than 2 ER in his other seven.
C.J. Wilson LAA (at SEA) – Wilson doesn’t get a ton of run, either, and he’s also been quite good the last few seasons. He’s not exactly on Lackey’s trajectory, but just another veteran who doesn’t draw much attention when maybe he should. His strikeouts are up, his walks are down, and his 53.8% groundball rate is his best as a starter. The M’s don’t scare anyone offensively, either. Buy with confidence.
Gavin Floyd ATL (v. BOS) – Floyd is cheap enough in some spots to qualify as a value play, but I even like him at somewhere like DraftKings where he’s the eighth-most expensive arm at $8800. He’s been fantastic in his four starts going more than six in four of them and logging at least five strikeouts in all three of those. The weak Braves offense hasn’t done much to support him hence an 0-1 record in those four outings, but wins are tough to predict anyway.
SOLID BUYS:
Jordan Zimmermann WAS (v. MIA) – After a big strikeout month in April (35 in 33 IP), he has just 12 in 21.7 IP this month while also allowing 30 hits. I’m not sure what is going on there, but I don’t think the .359 BABIP is going to stay that high and all of his ERA indicators suggest he’s been a mid-3.00s ERA pitcher and not the 3.95 guy we’ve seen to date. I’m still buying.
Anibal Sanchez DET (at OAK) – This DET-OAK series is tough to play on. Both teams have high-octane offenses, but they also both boast strong rotations so you’re reserved to dive in on either end… or at least you should be in my estimation. Sanchez hasn’t quite gotten going this year with some fits and starts due to rain delays, high pitch counts of his doing, and a DL stint that cost him 21 days. And yet, he’s got a 2.83 ERA and 1.11 WHIP. This Oakland offense is tough so he’s not one of my top options, but the price is still juicy at some outlets so I might fit him into a lineup or two just for the value upside.
Scott Kazmir OAK (v. DET) – Kazmir’s been great for the A’s with a 2.56 ERA, but where are the strikeouts this month? He’s got just 10 in 21.3 IP over his four starts. Even if you pull the outing where he was ejected in the second inning, he’s still only got nine in 20 IP. He’s shifted into a heavy groundball pitcher, so the strikeout fade hasn’t cut his effectiveness, but I’m not exactly running out to use him against the Tigers, especially with the expectation of fewer strikeouts.
VALUE PLAYS:
These are guys who aren’t inherently good buys, but they have a nice matchup and they’re likely to be very cheap so you can save with them and take the gamble that they come through with a strong effort.
Jordan Lyles COL (at PHI) – I’m still not fully on board with Lyles, but he just keeps finding himself in useful value spots. I loved him in Atlanta and his 6 IP/2 ER/6 K effort was solid, especially for his price. We’ve got another great spot for him against the uninspired Phillies. They’re 26th in wOBA against righties at .289 and it’s the same home and away.
Tim Stauffer SD (at ARI) – I actually like Stauffer’s talent, but I’m not sure he can go much beyond 85-90 pitches which will limit his upside. He logged five shutout innings in 77 pitches in his first start of the season against the Cubs. The D’Backs are league average at home so I’m not seeing another shutout effort, but six solid innings isn’t out of the realm of possibility and he shouldn’t cost a thing.
Chase Anderson ARI (v. SD) – He’s facing the Padres. That’s enough to at least get some consideration, especially at a dirt-cheap price. The risk is high and he could implode your lineup, but he also doesn’t need to be great to earn his scant price.
STAYAWAYS:
These guys should just be avoided either because of their matchup, talent-level, or both. These guys are often the ones you’ll want to stack against if you use that method.
Homer Bailey CIN (at LAD) – I’ve been backing Bailey from the jump as I just don’t believe he’s this bad, but part of my confidence was tied to the skills holding strong. They’ve waned in May so despite four quality starts in his five May outings, I’m backing off here against the Dodgers. I’m still buying long-term, though.
Chris Archer TB (at TOR) – He’s got two solid back-to-back outings with 11.7 scoreless innings despite nine walks, but as I mentioned with Cobb yesterday, I’m just not using guys against the Blue Jays right now, especially in Toronto.
Shelby Miller STL (v. NYY) – We saw it bit last time out, but the ERA isn’t done heading upward. I have zero interest here.
- Roberto Hernandez PHI (v. COL)
- Liam Hendriks TOR (v. TB)
- Joe Saunders TEX (at MIN)
- T.J. House CLE (at CWS)
- Hector Noesi CWS (v. CLE)
Pitcher Advanced Stats and Stats Against
| Pitcher | wOBA vs L | ERA vs L | wOBA vs R | ERA vs R | AVG | OPS | BABIP | FIP | AVG-A | Pit/G | Strk% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alvarez | 0.291 | 3.50 | 0.356 | 2.84 | 0.232 | 0.660 | 1.360 | 3.21 | 0.084 | 88.60 | 65.0% |
| Zimmermann | 0.325 | 4.78 | 0.359 | 3.25 | 0.257 | 0.747 | 1.430 | 3.95 | 0.148 | 87.50 | 67.9% |
| Lyles | 0.312 | 4.08 | 0.297 | 2.87 | 0.234 | 0.653 | 1.220 | 3.45 | 0.081 | 95.10 | 60.4% |
| Hernandez | 0.300 | 4.19 | 0.364 | 3.62 | 0.286 | 0.805 | 1.510 | 3.83 | 0.074 | 75.00 | 61.7% |
| Archer | 0.274 | 2.67 | 0.369 | 6.45 | 0.260 | 0.774 | 1.440 | 4.11 | 0.113 | 98.60 | 61.7% |
| Hendriks | 0.404 | 3.38 | 0.141 | 0.247 | 0.683 | 1.060 | 1.59 | 0 | 79.00 | 64.6% | |
| Floyd | 0.374 | 3.27 | 0.240 | 1.88 | 0.240 | 0.678 | 1.260 | 2.49 | 0.176 | 98.25 | 66.2% |
| Lackey | 0.280 | 3.05 | 0.349 | 4.33 | 0.223 | 0.625 | 1.240 | 3.58 | 0.165 | 101.90 | 68.7% |
| House | 0.731 | 10.80 | 0.407 | 5.06 | 0.252 | 0.708 | 1.860 | 6.43 | -0.032 | 46.00 | 68.5% |
| Noesi | 0.398 | 5.03 | 0.393 | 9.20 | 0.262 | 0.763 | 1.690 | 6.82 | 0.083 | 57.73 | 62.4% |
| Norris | 0.339 | 5.00 | 0.291 | 2.86 | 0.255 | 0.704 | 1.170 | 3.83 | 0.095 | 102.78 | 64.1% |
| Gallardo | 0.292 | 3.51 | 0.313 | 3.58 | 0.269 | 0.714 | 1.250 | 3.51 | 0.088 | 98.20 | 59.4% |
| Saunders | 0.442 | 9.82 | 0.234 | 0.649 | 2.450 | 9.82 | 0.046 | 89.00 | 53.9% | ||
| Gibson | 0.335 | 3.64 | 0.265 | 6.30 | 0.256 | 0.697 | 1.420 | 4.68 | 0.023 | 89.44 | 59.0% |
| Kuroda | 0.341 | 4.86 | 0.325 | 4.21 | 0.263 | 0.695 | 1.300 | 4.55 | 0.137 | 96.50 | 62.6% |
| Miller | 0.379 | 4.58 | 0.308 | 2.50 | 0.251 | 0.714 | 1.390 | 3.18 | 0.062 | 93.10 | 61.2% |
| Stauffer | 0.222 | 0.77 | 0.357 | 3.27 | 0.247 | 0.680 | 1.230 | 1.90 | 0.135 | 30.31 | 61.4% |
| Anderson | 0.329 | 7.36 | 0.354 | 3.86 | 0.220 | 0.614 | 1.130 | 5.06 | 0.119 | 84.50 | 63.3% |
| Sanchez | 0.226 | 2.66 | 0.304 | 3.21 | 0.253 | 0.754 | 1.110 | 2.83 | 0.128 | 86.71 | 64.3% |
| Kazmir | 0.307 | 1.69 | 0.245 | 2.76 | 0.286 | 0.790 | 1.010 | 2.56 | 0.135 | 89.60 | 65.2% |
| Bailey | 0.469 | 7.71 | 0.306 | 4.34 | 0.274 | 0.773 | 1.590 | 5.34 | 0.118 | 100.30 | 63.9% |
| Kershaw | 0.179 | 0.337 | 4.43 | 0.232 | 0.653 | 1.240 | 3.49 | 0.265 | 86.60 | 69.7% | |
| Wilson | 0.279 | 3.12 | 0.286 | 3.02 | 0.244 | 0.638 | 1.130 | 3.00 | 0.141 | 116.20 | 59.4% |
| Hernandez | 0.259 | 2.91 | 0.273 | 2.56 | 0.253 | 0.737 | 1.060 | 2.75 | 0.197 | 100.27 | 67.1% |
Starting Pitcher Salaries
Click the image below to view pitcher salaries by each daily fantasy site along with their percent of top statistics.
- Percent of Top (Top) – Player salary divided by the most expensive pitcher each day. So if Felix Hernandez is $9,000 on FanDuel and Justin Verlander is $4,500, Verlanders Top stat would be 50.
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