Daily Pitcher Breakdown: May 29th (Late)
The Daily Pitcher Breakdown goes in-depth to look at nearly every pitching option, with a focus on the best targets for each night. Sometimes there will be a best of the rest section featuring guys who are likely low-dollar options with some upside for those of you who prefer to load your lineup with hitting studs.
There will also be a contingent of the starters that you can ignore each day. They offer no discernible upside so they aren’t worth your time. Because it is baseball and a 162-game season, there are going to be times when guys from the ignore group go off, but we’re dealing with probabilities in the daily game so the goal is to give yourself the best odds for success, not find needle in the proverbial haystack that finally doesn’t poke you.
LEGEND
Stats Shown in Red Are BELOW AVERAGE
Stats Shown in White are AVERAGE
Stats Shown in Green Are ABOVE AVERAGE
Stats Shown in Blue Are ELITE
View descriptions of stats below and Legend FAQ
Daily Pitcher Chart
| Pitcher | TM | OPP | IP | ERA | SIERA | WHIP | GEM% | K% | BB% | HR/9 | G/F |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wheeler | NYM | PHI | 56.1 | 4.31 | 3.92 | 1.52 | 40.0% | 21.2% | 10.8% | 0.64 | 1.83 |
| Buchanan | PHI | NYM | 5 | 3.60 | 3.21 | 1.00 | 10.0% | 0.0% | 0.00 | 2.75 | |
| Shields | KCR | TOR | 73.1 | 2.95 | 3.37 | 1.18 | 54.5% | 20.6% | 4.9% | 0.86 | 1.48 |
| Dickey | TOR | KCR | 68.1 | 3.95 | 4.37 | 1.31 | 54.5% | 18.2% | 10.5% | 0.66 | 1.33 |
| Minor | ATL | BOS | 30 | 3.90 | 3.71 | 1.30 | 60.0% | 21.1% | 7.0% | 1.80 | 1.00 |
| Peavy | BOS | ATL | 60 | 4.65 | 4.49 | 1.50 | 50.0% | 18.3% | 10.7% | 1.35 | 1.01 |
| Jimenez | BAL | HOU | 56 | 4.98 | 4.17 | 1.54 | 20.0% | 20.7% | 11.3% | 0.96 | 1.51 |
| Peacock | HOU | BAL | 45 | 4.80 | 4.55 | 1.67 | 16.7% | 21.5% | 14.6% | 1.20 | 1.23 |
| Vogelsong | SFG | STL | 56.1 | 3.20 | 4.04 | 1.25 | 60.0% | 19.5% | 8.1% | 0.80 | 0.92 |
| Garcia | STL | SFG | 12.2 | 4.26 | 2.15 | 0.90 | 25.0% | 0.0% | 1.42 | 2.11 | |
| Cingrani | CIN | ARI | 44.1 | 4.06 | 4.18 | 1.43 | 37.5% | 22.6% | 12.1% | 1.42 | 0.89 |
| Collmenter | ARI | CIN | 53 | 3.91 | 4.45 | 1.21 | 25.0% | 15.1% | 6.4% | 1.53 | 0.80 |
| Shoemaker | LAA | SEA | 22.2 | 3.18 | 3.47 | 1.17 | 21.1% | 7.4% | 0.79 | 1.52 | |
| Maurer | SEA | LAA | 28.1 | 6.99 | 5.02 | 1.67 | 11.6% | 7.8% | 1.27 | 0.95 | |
| Cole | PIT | LAD | 64.2 | 3.76 | 3.44 | 1.34 | 40.0% | 21.7% | 7.6% | 1.11 | 1.84 |
| Haren | LAD | PIT | 62.2 | 3.16 | 3.52 | 1.25 | 50.0% | 18.1% | 4.2% | 0.86 | 1.58 |
Here is a look at the day’s slate of arms and how they might stack in their given matchups.
If a guy isn’t listed, he’s just kind of a neutral option – I’m not using him, but I’m not stacking against him, either.
BEST BUYS:
These aren’t just low-cost guys with good matchups and/or venues, but you will also find expensive studs in here with great matchups.
Dan Haren LAD (v. PIT) – A healthy Haren is a useful Haren. The veteran righty fought through a bad back through parts of 2013, but he’s been healthy and upright so far this season and he’s paying big dividends. His strikeout rate is down substantially at 18.1% (down from 21.1% a year ago) and the decline in swinging strike rate backs up the decline. To compensate, he’s once again a heavy groundball pitcher with a 47.7% rate and 1.6 GB/FB ratio. His home runs are also down at 0.86 HR/9 which should help neutralize the biggest threat of the Pirates with a lot of their damage coming via the longball.
R.A. Dickey TOR (v. TB) – Dickey has run off seven straight quality starts including an 8.1 IP effort his last time out. He has a 10.5% walk rate on the season, but just an 8.3% mark in that seven start stretch. The Royals just aren’t a team to fear offensively right now so while they did pop him for a 5 IP/6 ER dud in his season opener, I’m still willing to go back to the well today.
Mike Minor ATL (at BOS) – Minor has one dud on his ledger this year with a 4.3 IP/6 ER smashing at the hands of the Cardinals, but he’s been excellent in his other four starts so don’t let the 3.90 ERA and 1.30 WHIP dissuade you. Homers have been a bit of an issue so he’ll need to avoid Big Papi, but I still like this matchup for Minor.
Ryan Vogelsong SF (at STL) – Vogelsong has quietly been on fire of late. He had a 7.71 ERA through his first four starts, but he’s ripped off a 1.35 ERA in his last six outings with a 3.2 K/BB ratio in 40 IP. He’s had 6+ Ks in five of those six outings including 21 Ks in his last 19.7 IP. The Cards have been better offensively this month, but I think Vogelsong can be trusted here.
SOLID BUYS:
Gerrit Cole PIT (at LAD) – Similar to last year, Cole has turned up his strikeout rate in his second month. He had an 18.4% strikeout rate in April and it’s surged to 25.2% in May with at least six in each of his five starts. The Dodgers are a tough matchup, but I can still see using Cole. He’s close to matchup-proof.
VALUE PLAYS:
These are guys aren’t inherently good buys, but they have a nice matchup and they’re likely to be very cheap so you can save with them and take the gamble that they come through with a strong effort.
Zack Wheeler NYM (at PHI) – Wheeler has been a disappointment this year despite logging six quality starts in his 10 outings thanks to some awful work in the other four. I still believe in the talent, though. Despite the struggles, he’s still got nearly a strikeout-per-inning with 53 in his 56.3 IP of work. He’s also toting a very healthy 53.1% groundball rate. Facing the Phillies definitely adds to his appeal, too. All of his ERA indicators suggest he’s at least a sub-4.00 ERA pitcher and we’ve seen several glimpses of a pitcher even better than that in his 27 MLB starts.
Jake Peavy BOS (v. ATL) – Peavy skated through April and early May with a 3.09 ERA in seven starts, but the writing was on the wall with the component numbers, particularly a 13.5% BB rate with at least four walks in five of his first seven outings. His ERA has regressed with an 8.82 ERA in his last three starts, but ironically he’s actually stopped walking guys during the three-start skid with just three. The Braves are still a worthy opponent to pick on, though. They hand out strikeouts like candy, even Clay Buchholz got four in his three disastrous innings.
Josh Collmenter ARI (v. CIN) – I don’t love Collmenter as he’s not much of a strikeout force and he’s a heavy-flyball pitcher, but the Reds are a team to pick on. They weren’t doing much with Joey Votto so the fact that he’s out only makes them easier to go against. Collmenter is nice and cheap so while the upside isn’t tremendous, neither is the investment.
STAYAWAYS:
These guys should just be avoided either because of their matchup, talent-level, or both. These guys are often the ones you’ll want to stack against if you use that method.
- James Shields TB (at TOR) – Run away from Toronto!!!
- Brad Peacock HOU (v. BAL)
- Brandon Maurer SEA (v. LAA)
Pitcher Advanced Stats and Stats Against
| Pitcher | wOBA vs L | ERA vs L | wOBA vs R | ERA vs R | AVG | OPS | BABIP | FIP | AVG-A | Pit/G | Strk% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wheeler | 0.363 | 5.40 | 0.287 | 2.70 | 0.234 | 0.653 | 1.510 | 4.31 | 0.104 | 100.30 | 61.5% |
| Buchanan | 0.197 | 0.277 | 6.75 | 0.226 | 0.636 | 1.000 | 3.60 | 0.1 | 66.00 | 66.7% | |
| Shields | 0.285 | 2.92 | 0.319 | 3.37 | 0.260 | 0.774 | 1.170 | 2.95 | 0.157 | 106.27 | 64.5% |
| Dickey | 0.325 | 4.29 | 0.305 | 4.06 | 0.256 | 0.662 | 1.300 | 3.95 | 0.078 | 104.64 | 63.3% |
| Minor | 0.266 | 2.79 | 0.304 | 3.49 | 0.241 | 0.714 | 1.300 | 3.90 | 0.141 | 99.20 | 62.5% |
| Peavy | 0.317 | 4.34 | 0.326 | 4.41 | 0.223 | 0.625 | 1.500 | 4.65 | 0.076 | 102.30 | 63.0% |
| Jimenez | 0.305 | 3.74 | 0.318 | 3.74 | 0.219 | 0.667 | 1.540 | 4.98 | 0.093 | 104.30 | 61.6% |
| Peacock | 0.380 | 6.14 | 0.292 | 4.06 | 0.269 | 0.714 | 1.670 | 4.80 | 0.068 | 78.00 | 60.5% |
| Vogelsong | 0.328 | 4.40 | 0.368 | 5.38 | 0.263 | 0.695 | 1.240 | 3.20 | 0.114 | 94.50 | 60.1% |
| Garcia | 0.385 | 5.40 | 0.294 | 3.25 | 0.248 | 0.725 | 0.870 | 4.26 | 0.25 | 79.00 | 69.0% |
| Cingrani | 0.254 | 3.12 | 0.318 | 3.40 | 0.252 | 0.691 | 1.420 | 4.06 | 0.105 | 94.00 | 59.2% |
| Collmenter | 0.326 | 3.99 | 0.295 | 3.07 | 0.245 | 0.684 | 1.210 | 3.91 | 0.087 | 69.92 | 65.0% |
| Shoemaker | 0.300 | 2.93 | 0.191 | 2.19 | 0.228 | 0.667 | 1.150 | 3.18 | 0.137 | 57.67 | 63.0% |
| Maurer | 0.384 | 6.50 | 0.375 | 6.63 | 0.253 | 0.737 | 1.660 | 6.99 | 0.039 | 80.17 | 62.4% |
| Cole | 0.300 | 3.57 | 0.307 | 3.38 | 0.274 | 0.773 | 1.330 | 3.76 | 0.141 | 101.70 | 64.4% |
| Haren | 0.317 | 5.00 | 0.337 | 3.68 | 0.246 | 0.685 | 1.240 | 3.16 | 0.14 | 102.70 | 65.1% |
Starting Pitcher Salaries
Click the image below to view pitcher salaries by each daily fantasy site along with their percent of top statistics.
- Percent of Top (Top) – Player salary divided by the most expensive pitcher each day. So if Felix Hernandez is $9,000 on FanDuel and Justin Verlander is $4,500, Verlanders Top stat would be 50.
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