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Daily Pitcher Breakdown: May 15th, 2013

by PSporer Last Updated 2013-05-15 18:58:04

Welcome to the Daily Pitcher Breakdown. I will focus on the top selections of the day and give you a breakdown on why they are set up for success against their given opponent. Sometimes there will be a best of the rest section featuring guys who are likely low-dollar options with some upside for those of you who prefer to load your lineup with hitting studs.

There will also be a contingent of the starters that you can ignore each day. They offer no discernible upside so they aren’t worth your time. Because it is baseball and a 162-game season, there are going to be times when guys from the ignore group go off, but we’re dealing with probabilities in the daily game so the goal is to give yourself the best odds for success, not find needle in the proverbial haystack that finally doesn’t poke you.

LEGEND
Stats Shown in Red Are BELOW AVERAGE
Stats Shown in White are AVERAGE
Stats Shown in Green Are ABOVE AVERAGE
Stats Shown in Blue Are ELITE

For a description of each stat below and the tiers used for them, check out this pop up window FAQ Page by clicking here

Performance and Talent Statistics: May 15th, 2013

PLAYER PERFORMANCE TALENT
PITCHER TM IP ERA SIERA WHIP GEM% IMP% K% BB% HR/9 G/F
Gallardo MIL 46 4.70 4.40 1.50 25.0% 25.0% 15.2% 7.8% 0.78 1.73
Rodriguez PIT 37.1 3.62 3.97 1.07 42.9% 14.3% 17.7% 5.2% 1.69 1.20
Iwakuma SEA 51.2 1.74 2.91 0.74 75.0% 0.0% 26.7% 4.2% 0.87 0.95
Hughes NYY 40.2 4.43 3.81 1.38 57.1% 28.6% 21.3% 5.2% 1.55 0.63
Vogelsong SFG 39.1 7.78 4.03 1.73 0.0% 57.1% 20.2% 8.2% 2.06 1.15
Ortiz TOR 8.1 3.24 6.35 1.80 0.0% 0.0% 7.9% 15.8% 0.00 1.67
Lester BOS 52.2 2.73 3.59 0.99 50.0% 12.5% 21.5% 7.2% 0.68 1.62
Price TBR 52.2 4.78 3.43 1.39 37.5% 25.0% 21.3% 5.8% 1.37 1.67
Leake CIN 41.2 4.32 4.16 1.49 28.6% 14.3% 15.4% 6.6% 1.08 1.73
Sanabia MIA 39 4.85 5.44 1.72 28.6% 28.6% 12.4% 11.2% 1.38 1.13
Garland COL 41 4.83 4.48 1.49 28.6% 14.0% 12.5% 7.4% 1.10 2.12
Samardzija CHC 48.2 3.70 3.24 1.25 50.0% 12.5% 27.7% 9.2% 0.92 1.50
Marcum NYM 14.2 8.59 4.94 2.05 0.0% 33.0% 13.9% 8.3% 0.61 0.80
Miller STL 45.2 1.58 2.83 0.88 71.4% 0.0% 29.1% 6.3% 0.59 1.12
Davis KCR 35.1 5.86 4.51 1.84 28.6% 42.9% 17.1% 9.2% 1.53 1.25
Enright LAA 6.1 11.37 5.33 1.89 0.0% 100.0% 19.4% 16.1% 2.84 0.44
Detwiler WAS 42.2 2.53 4.36 1.36 71.4% 0.0% 12.7% 4.4% 0.63 1.46
Greinke LAD 11.1 1.59 2.91 0.71 50.0% 0.0% 23.8% 2.4% 0.00 1.44

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STARTING PITCHER BREAKDOWN

Here is a look at the day’s slate of arms and how they might stack in their given matchups.

THE CREAM OF THE CROP:

shelby miller

Shelby Miller, STL (v. NYM) – While Matt Harvey is drawing most of the headlines Miller has been just as good. His impressive outing against the Rockies last time out started to garner him the attention he deserves. His “worst” outing saw him allow three runs in 5.7 innings, but he still fanned seven. As if facing Miller wasn’t tough enough, the Mets also happen to be the worst team in baseball against right-handed curveballs (347 OPS) which just so happens to be Miller’s off-speed pitch. He is essentially a two-pitch pitcher right with his fastball carrying the bulk of the load right now – of course, If you have the second-best heater of guys who have thrown theirs at least 500 times (second to Jordan Zimmermann), then being a two-pitch guy isn’t much of problem. Miller’s heater is yielding a pathetic .192 AVG and 566 OPS.

Jon Lester, BOS (at TB) – Speaking of incredible fastballs, Lester has thrown his 453 times and his rates third in OPS-allowed among those throwing it that often behind Zimmermann and Mike Minor. The Rays have actually been strong against lefties for the first time in a while with a 790 OPS against them, but they are just league average against lefty heaters. Lester used his fastball 54% of the time to beat the Rays back on April 13th as he held them to just 2-for-14 with the pitch setting up his secondary stuff.

Hisashi Iwakuma, SEA (at NYY) – Iwakuma’s swinging strike rate is up more than two percentage points to 11.7% this year, which is a major gain when you are dealing with rates that are in the 7-12% range for the most part. He has been absolutely amazing through his first eight starts with an arsenal of pitches that couldn’t go straight if he tried. Everything dips, cuts, bites, breaks, or jumps and it’s helped him roll through opponents good or weak with aplomb. The Yankees are sixth in OPS against righties (774), but a lot of that is built off of a hot start to the season as they are just 16th in the last calendar month with a 717 OPS.

jeff%20samardzija

Jeff Samardzija, CHC (v. COL) – The Rockies were hitting everywhere in April, whether home or away, but they have started reverting to their old ways early in May with a 681 OPS on the road in six May road games – slotting them 20th in the league. That’s no doubt a tiny sample, but the Rockies have a history of road struggles so we’ll see whether the early April part is truer or their slide back to previous history is more indicative. I wouldn’t be afraid of a stud like Samardzija against them either way, especially since they struggle against his two best pitches: the slider and splitter. They have a 474 OPS against the two pitches, 24th in baseball.

David Price, TB (v. BOS) – Listen, he’s still a stud. The velocity is just fine as are his component skills. He’s had some mechanical issues from the stretch leading to his troubles, but it’s nothing that can’t be fixed. In fact, he’s looked better over his last four outings with a 3.64 ERA and 1.23 WHIP. That’s hardly vintage Price, but I haven’t lost faith and in fact there is a buying opportunity at some outlets where his cost is down because of his 4.78 season ERA.

BEST THE REST:

Zack Greinke, LAD (v. WAS) – He is obviously a cream of the crop talent, but he’s returning from injury so we’ll play it safe and slot him here. He has just two starts so his samples of work aren’t deep enough to derive much information. The Nats are 21st in baseball against righties with a 659 OPS.

ross%20detwiler

Ross Detwiler, WAS (at LAD) – The only thing that keeps Detwiler from the “Cream” is that he just doesn’t strike guys out at the rate of the elite. His season is five so if he has an outing where he scatters several hits, he doesn’t have those Ks to fall back on and cancel out the base knocks. You can’t argue with the excellence of his runs allowed as he hasn’t allowed more than three in any start and he’s only allowed three in two of his seven outings. The Dodgers are 27th in baseball with a 624 OPS against southpaws thanks in large part to a .299 SLG (29th in MLB). They do have a .260 AVG against them which is about league average so we could see one those 6 IP-8 H-2 ER-1 BB-4 K kind of outings from Detwiler. Good, not great.

Phil Hughes, NYY (v. SEA) – My biggest issue with Hughes is his overwhelming inconsistency. Which Hughes will show up today? He had four excellent starts in a row allowing six runs in 28 innings before getting blasted by the Royals for six runs in 5.7 innings his last time out. The Mariners have a league-low .158 AVG and 563 OPS against righties so we should see the good Hughes today and that’s why he’s not in the “Caution” zone.

USE CAUTION:

Mike Leake, CIN (at MIA) – He’s a league average at best arm, but the Marlins have made far worse look much better so he deserves some consideration as a low dollar option if you have some high-dollar offensive options you want to load your lineup with today. One of Leake’s biggest issues, home runs, is stifled in Marlins Park so that also helps.

Yovani Gallardo, MIL (at PIT) – His strikeout rate is way down at 15.2% (down from 23.7% last year) and that seems to be at the root of his problems. His hits allowed have gone way up, sitting at a career-worst 10.4 per nine. The Pirates are about league-average against righties, but YoGa does have his season’s best outing against them. Back on April 29th he gave up just one earned (two overall) in seven innings on three hits and two walks with five strikeouts. He’s a very risky proposition right now, but there is still talent locked up in there so if you like longshots…

Wandy Rodriguez, PIT (v. MIL) – He was ripped by the Brewers in that April 29th matchup giving up seven in just 3.7 innings on six hits and four walks. He did strike out a pair, but he allowed three homers. He has a 2.13 ERA in 33.7 innings outside of that start, though. He’s been pretty good this year and he’s especially strong at home with a 1.37 ERA at PNC Park. There is less risk than with Gallardo, but there is also less upside since he’s not a huge strikeout guy.

YOU CAN SAFELY IGNORE:

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PARK FACTORS: MAY 15th, 2013

PITCHER PARK PARK-R PARK-HR PARK-LHB PARK-RHB
Gallardo PNC 0.825 0.674 0.858 0.943
Rodriguez PNC 0.825 0.674 0.858 0.943
Iwakuma Yankee 0.824 0.873 1.055 0.983
Hughes Yankee 0.824 0.873 1.055 0.983
Vogelsong Rogers 0.982 1.474 1.020 1.055
Ortiz Rogers 0.982 1.474 1.020 1.055
Lester Tropicana 0.97 0.856 1.009 0.997
Price Tropicana 0.97 0.856 1.009 0.997
Leake Marlins 0.883 0.859 0.936 0.859
Sanabia Marlins 0.883 0.859 0.936 0.859
Garland Wrigley 1.499 0.842 1.093 0.991
Samardzija Wrigley 1.499 0.842 1.093 0.991
Marcum Busch 0.821 1.269 1.016 0.843
Miller Busch 0.821 1.269 1.016 0.843
Davis Angel 1.002 0.722 0.960 1.062
Enright Angel 1.002 0.722 0.960 1.062
Detwiler Dodger 0.931 1.118 1.002 0.908
Greinke Dodger 0.931 1.118 1.002 0.908

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Starting Pitcher Salaries: May 15th, 2013

Shown below are starting pitcher salaries as well as the percent of top statistics.

1) Percent Top in Red are the most expensive. Between 80% and 100% of the most expensive pitcher each day for each site.
2) Percent Top in Yellow cost between 60% and 80% of the most expensive pitcher each day for each site.
3) Percent Top in Green cost between 40% and 60% of the most expensive pitcher each day for each site.
4) Percent Top in Blue are the cheapest pitchers each day and are 40% or lower than the most expensive pitcher each day for each site.

Site FANDUEL DRAFTSTREET DAILYJOUST DRAFTDAY DRAFTKINGS FANTASYFEUD STARSTREET
Name Salary Top Salary Top Salary Top Salary Top Salary Top Salary Top Salary Top
Gallardo $7,300 81% $13,451 68% $278K 60% $11,000 56% $9,200 76% $90K 66% $27,900 67%
Rodriguez $6,700 74% $10,249 51% $253K 55% $10,700 54% $8,300 69% $79K 58% $24,600 59%
Iwakuma $7,400 82% $15,534 78% $397K 86% $12,200 62% $9,200 76% $129K 95% $29,100 70%
Hughes $5,700 63% $13,420 67% $326K 71% $11,350 58% $7,700 64% $97K 71% $29,800 72%
Vogelsong $5,900 66% $6,921 35% $189K 41% $9,900 50% $9,100 75% $63K 46% $23,300 56%
Ortiz $2,600 29% NA NA $151K 33% $7,100 36% $5,000 41% $15K 11% $15,000 36%
Lester $7,900 88% $15,247 77% $334K 72% $13,450 68% $9,400 78% $90K 66% $32,700 79%
Price $7,800 87% $14,759 74% $296K 64% $14,300 73% $9,900 82% $100K 73% $32,700 79%
Leake $5,400 60% $10,488 53% $218K 47% $8,250 42% $8,300 69% $68K 50% $20,200 49%
Sanabia $4,400 49% $6,129 31% $151K 33% $5,000 25% $5,000 41% $32K 23% $15,800 38%
Garland $6,000 67% $7,498 38% $188K 41% $7,000 36% $5,000 41% $50K 37% $16,800 40%
Samardzija $7,800 87% $12,985 65% $278K 60% $12,850 65% $10,100 83% $86K 63% $30,200 73%
Marcum $6,100 68% $9,282 47% $151K 33% $5,150 26% $8,100 67% $67K 49% $24,800 60%
Miller $7,700 86% $17,285 87% $425K 92% $14,500 74% $8,400 69% $100K 74% $33,400 80%
Davis $4,700 52% $8,447 42% $151K 33% $7,800 40% $6,900 57% $28K 21% $22,800 55%
Enright $3,500 39% $9,290 47% $151K 33% $6,350 32% $5,000 41% $15K 11% $15,500 37%
Detwiler $6,000 67% $8,698 44% $259K 56% $8,700 44% $7,600 63% $79K 58% $18,800 45%
Greinke $9,000 100% NA NA NA NA $14,400 73% $10,500 87% $115K 84% $30,500 73%

About the Author

PSporer
PSporer

Paul has been writing about baseball for 15 years at various internet outlets and he’s been an avid fantasy baseballer for 21 of his 33 years on this planet, joining his first league at 12 years old which is still running today. He writes a comprehensive starting pitcher guide each year and it’s now available thespguide.com. When’s he’s not watching baseball, he is sleeping, because why would anyone waste time being awake if they weren’t going to watch baseball? He writes three times a week and has his own podcast at Fangraphs with co-hosts Eno Sarris & Jason Collette, contributes to Rotowire, and he has been a guest co-host with Matthew Berry on ESPN’s Fantasy Focus podcast.