Dallas Cowboys vs. Kansas City Chiefs Odds, Picks, & Predictions

by Nick Galaida (nickgalaida) Last Updated 2021-11-21 01:26:40

Cowboys vs. Chiefs Odds

The Dallas Cowboys and the Kansas City Chiefs will battle on Sunday afternoon at Arrowhead Stadium. Even though Amari Cooper has been ruled out for this game due to a positive COVID-19 test, oddsmakers have held firm in their expectation of a tightly contested affair, favoring Kansas City just shy of a field goal.

Let’s take a deeper look at the matchup to see where bettors can find value at sportsbooks in this Week 11 matchup.

Dallas Cowboys (-110)

Following an embarrassing loss at home to the Denver Broncos in Week 9, the Cowboys responded with an emphatic 40-point victory over the Atlanta Falcons in Week 10. Dallas has only one other loss this fall—a two point defeat to the defending Super Bowl Champions on opening night of the NFL season. The Cowboys have impressive wins over the Los Angeles Chargers, New England Patriots, and the Minnesota Vikings through the first couple of months of the new campaign.

Dak Prescott has been magnificent in his return to the field after suffering a devastating season-ending injury in 2020. Prescott has a sterling 20-to-5 touchdown-to-interception ratio and ranks ninth in the league in QBR. He could be in for a big day, even without Amari Cooper, against a Kansas City secondary unit that has allowed opposing quarterbacks to throw 18 touchdowns against eight interceptions—good for a 99.5 passer rating this season. Ezekiel Elliott and Tony Pollard have been phenomenal out of the backfield, with each averaging 4.7 yards-per-carry or better. Both Prescott and the Dallas running back tandem are aided by the fact that they are protected by one of the best offensive lines in the NFL. It is worth noting that Tyron Smith was listed as a limited practice participant each of the final three days of practice this week. His status is worth monitoring as kickoff approaches.

Defensively, Dallas is much better than their reputation suggests. Only the Buffalo Bills, New England Patriots, and Green Bay Packers have held opposing signal callers to a lower passer rating in 2021. Quarterbacks have thrown for 14 touchdowns against 14 interceptions against the Cowboys’ respectable secondary unit, which features standouts Anthony Brown and Jayron Kearse. Dallas is mediocre against the run, permitting 4.3 yards-per-carry on the year. The biggest vulnerability that this defense will face on Sunday is their proclivity to give up big plays. Dallas has allowed 35 completions of 20-plus yards and seven completions of 40-plus yards this season.

Kansas City Chiefs -2.5 (-110)

Prior to a sparkling performance on Sunday Night Football against a hapless Las Vegas Raiders defense, Mahomes had thrown for more than 278 yards only once since Week 3, and had a pedestrian 13-to-9 touchdown to interception ratio during that stretch. Mahomes has the most interceptions of any quarterback in the NFL this fall, and ranks only 10th in QBR. Only twice in Kansas City’s last five games have they scored more than 20 points, despite playing zero elite defenses during that span. The Chiefs have one of the best offensive lines in football, two premier pass catchers in Tyreek and Travis Kelce, and a competent rotation of running backs that have combined to average the ninth-most yards-per-carry in the NFL this season. Mahomes is the biggest question mark for this offense right now, whether bettors and the media want to believe it or not. He certainly played well in Week 10, but he has a much tougher test against a strong Dallas pass defense in Week 11.

There is arguably no team worse than the Chiefs on the defensive side of the ball. Kansas City has allowed opposing quarterbacks to post a 99.5 passer rating this season and has allowed the third-most passing yards of any team in the league. Kansas City is also allowing a disastrous 4.6 yards-per-carry on the ground this fall, which is especially problematic against a dynamic running back tandem such as Elliott and Pollard for the Cowboys. This defense could be in for a long day Sunday against one of the NFL’s premier offensive attacks. The absence of Amari Cooper is unlikely to slow Dallas down much in this contest.

Cowboys vs. Chiefs Pick

Casual sports bettors watched the Chiefs on Sunday Night Football in Week 10, and were convinced that this team is once again a Super Bowl contender. The Cowboys had a much less sexy time slot in Week 10, playing at 4:25 pm against the Falcons—but they had an equally impressive victory. Tyron Smith’s status is important to monitor ahead of kickoff in this one. If Smith suits up, Dallas should be able to run the ball at-will in this matchup. Prescott should find similar success through the air, even without his second leading wide receiver. Dallas is the better team. Bettors should place their bets accordingly.

PICK: Cowboys ML (+116)

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