Dallas Mavericks vs. Denver Nuggets Odds, Preview, Prediction
Mavericks vs. Nuggets Odds
| Mavericks Odds | +2 |
| Nuggets Odds | -2 |
| Over/Under | 215.5 |
| Date | Friday, Oct. 29 |
| Time | 10:00 p.m. ET |
| TV | ESPN |
On Friday evening, the Dallas Mavericks and the Denver Nuggets will battle at Ball Arena. Dallas has won three of their first first games to begin the season, with their lone loss coming on opening night to the Atlanta Hawks. Denver won their first two contests, but suffered back-to-back losses on consecutive days to start this week—losing to the Cleveland Cavaliers and Utah Jazz. Oddsmakers anticipate a tightly-contested affair between these two teams, pricing Denver as two point home favorites on the spread.
Let’s take a closer look at the matchup between the two teams and see where NBA bettors can find value at sportsbooks for this late night game in Denver.
Dallas Mavericks (+2)
One of the most challenging tasks in any professional sport is having to travel to Denver for the second leg of a back-to-back in the NBA. Last night, the Mavericks took care of business at home against the San Antonio Spurs in a 104-99 victory. Luka Doncic, Dorian Finney-Smith, Tim Hardaway Jr., Reggie Bullock, Jalen Brunson, and Max Kleber all played 29 or more minutes, with Doncic handling the heaviest workload at 34 minutes. Compounding matters, the Dallas team plane did not land in Denver until after midnight this morning, meaning that the players and coaches likely did not get settled in their hotel rooms until after 1:00 am MT.
It certainly does not help that Kristaps Porzingis has been ruled out for tonight’s affair. Doncic is the only member of the Mavericks averaging more than 15.3 points per game entering tonight’s action. Having Brunson as a third-option on offense is far from an ideal situation for a team to find themselves.
Dallas ranks 22nd in offensive efficiency ahead of Friday’s battle in Denver. They are also a mediocre 11th in defensive efficiency. Even if Nikola Jokic does not suit up, it is risky business to expect a strong showing from this Mavericks roster this evening.
Denver Nuggets (-2)
Whereas Dallas is forced to play tonight on a back-to-back, Denver has not played a game since Tuesday, meaning that there is a substantial rest advantage. It is also worth pointing out that neither of Denver’s losses are ones that they should be ashamed about. They lost to a new-look Cleveland team on Monday that has also taken down the Atlanta Hawks and the Los Angeles Clippers. Then, Denver played Utah extremely tough on Tuesday, even with tired legs and no Jokic for the second half.
Denver is a mediocre offensive roster without Jamal Murray, who is still recovering from off-season knee surgery. This offense was dealt another blow when Jokic left Tuesday’s contest after suffering a knee contusion. He is still listed as questionable for tonight’s game as of this writing.
Jokic is leading the Nuggets in points, rebounds, and assists so far this season. However, even if he does not play, Denver has three legitimate scoring options with Will Barton, Aaron Gordon, and Michael Porter Jr of whom are averaging double-digit points per game, and are capable of briefly thriving in an expanded role.
Defensively, Denver is allowing 103.5 points per 100 possessions, which slots them 10th in defensive efficiency through four games. However, this unit is likely capable of even better performances on this end of the floor, considering that they ranked eighth in defensive efficiency over the final 15 games of the 2020-2021 regular season.
Hornets vs. Heat Pick
The Nuggets were 13-4 straight up during the 2020-2021 campaign with a rest advantage. They were 25-9 as a home favorite. Missing Jamal Murray and potentially Nikola Jokic, this is a roster devoid of superstar talent. Yet, they are well-coached, play excellent defense, and have a significant home court advantage in this one.
Bettors should trust Denver, with or without Jokic, to get the job done tonight at Ball Arena. If Jokic plays, bettors receive great value on a line at a virtual pick’em. If Jokic sits, this is still a talented roster capable of winning this contest with gritty defense and fresh legs.
PICKS: Denver -2 (-110)
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