DFS Hockey: 2014 Olympic Coverage
Hello, Grinders! If you are reading this piece, you already miss your daily fantasy hockey fix and are itching to find some action. Today marks the first day that mens’ Olympic hockey opens. There are a good number of games over at FantasyFeud – from GPPs to your standard double-ups. Take note that the setup for Olympic daily fantasy hockey is a bit different than normal in the sense that it is a weekly salary cap game. Games on our host site commence at 12pm Eastern / 9am Pacific. The gold medal game will be held on February 23, 2014.
FantasyFeud DFS Olympic Hockey
With that, let’s dig in and take a deeper look at daily fantasy hockey, Olympic-style. The four RotoGrinders’ hockey writers (P.J. Errington – Boggslite; John Britt – JMBWngFn; Tony Mauriello – TheTonyM; Warren Kosoy – BillsFan777; and special guest, Tom W – Elctrceye) had a rankings summit and each has provided brilliant insight into the superstars to target, value players to grab and players to avoid. They will also give their predictions as to the which teams will stand on the podium in less than two weeks.
Breakdown of Groups in the Tournament
Before we take a look at the players and their relative value given FantasyFeud pricing, we must first provide a brief rundown of the teams striving for gold.
Group A includes: Russia, Slovenia, Slovakia, United States.
Group B includes: Austria, Canada, Finland, Norway.
Group C includes: Czech Republic, Latvia, Switzerland, Sweden.
The format includes a preliminary round in which each team will play three games (one against each other team in their respective group). After the preliminary round, the teams will be ranked 1D-12D and be placed in a bracket. In the playoff bracket, the top four ranked teams have a bye to the quarterfinals while the bottom 8 teams will compete in the qualification playoff game. From there, after the quarterfinal games, the bracket follows your standard form – semifinal, gold medal game or bronze medal game.
Structure of FantasyFeud Weekly Game
Within a $1,000,000 salary cap, you must fill your roster with a total of 10 skaters. There are no goaltenders and you are not forced to pick any defensemen. Instead, you must simply pick 10 forwards or defensemen or a mixture of the two. As you play around with the pricing, you will find that you are almost forced to play at least a few defensemen in order to stick in some of the superstars. Similar to playoff fantasy football, you want to pick players from a team that you believe will play the most games. Each team is guaranteed four games (3 preliminary round games and one playoff bracket game). The four teams that vie for 3 medals will play 7 games each (although the top 4 teams may only play 6 games if they (a) play for a medal and (b) have a first round bye in the playoff bracket). Thus, you might want to map out which teams you think will, ideally, so as to maximize points, advance from the preliminary round through the medal game and not have a bye in the playoff bracket.
Injuries
As fellow Grinder, bowens1984, noted in his blog yesterday, please note that you should avoid using the following players who are not playing due to injuries: Steven Stamkos, Henrik Sedin, Johan Franzen, Saku Koivu, Valtteri Flippula, and Marion Gaborik.
Top Overall Scorer
Each of our NHL experts will provide a prediction of their top scorer in the FantasyFeud game, regardless of salary:
TheTonyM – Evgeni Malkin – Russia – This might be the chalk selection, but I do not see anyone keeping up with Malkin. The Russian team should likely play in 6 games (assuming it makes a medal game and gets a bye in the first round of the playoff bracket). While Team Canada and Team USA (the other top teams in the games) will receive scoring from all of its lines, the Russian squad will lean heavily on its top line of Alexander Ovechkin – Evgeni Malkin – Alexander Semin. Malkin has been stellar when he has been healthy this season and if he can make a superstar out of James Neal, he should easily feed the puck to Ovie and Semin for a plethora of goals. Even if Russia gets knocked during the playoff bracket, Malkin should figure in enough goals in round play and the bracket games it does play to justify his $147,000 salary, which ranks second just below Sidney Crosby.
Boggslite – Henrik Zetterberg – Sweden – Centering Sweden’s top line alongside Gabriel Landeskog and Alexander Steen, Sweden has the easiest matchups in the preliminary round in my opinion. Similar to Crosby and Malkin, Zetterberg is a guy that is capable of scoring goals in addition to racking up assists but comes at a slightly cheaper price.
JMBWngFn – Evgeni Malkin – Russia – I see Russia having enough success on their home ice to force themselves into the Bronze Medal game at the very least, which obviously means a full slate of games for them. Unlike the other “favorites”, Russia does not have the luxury of rolling out four full lines of NHL All-Star’s and therefore will lean heavily on their immensely talented top-six forwards. If he can create as many scoring opportunities as he does for James Neal in Pittsburgh, it’s hard to believe that he won’t rack up points with Ovie on his wing and more room to work with.
BillsFan777 – Evgeni Malkin – Russia – On his home ice, Malkin should be an absolute force playing with Alex Ovechkin and Alex Semin. Malkin had 6 points in 4 games in Russia’s last disappointing Olympics and look for him to carry Russia on his shoulders in this year’s games.
Elctrceye – Chris Kunitz – Canada – I believe Canada has the easiest road navigating through this year’s tournament. Their toughest game before the semi-finals will be against Finland and when they get the number 1 seed heading into the playoff round, they will draw 8th vs 9th place winner. I expect Kunitz to remain with Crosby throughout the tournament and he will be able to use the chemistry he has with his NHL teammate to finish as the top overall scorer of the tournament.
Value Plays
Each of our NHL experts will provide a brief discussion of our top “value” plays:
TheTonyM – Mats Zuccarello – Norway – With 43 points in 58 games as a member of the New York Rangers in the 2013-2014 NHL campaign, Zuccarello is the only member of the Norwegian squad in the NHL. But, at just $70,000, it’s tough not to fit in the winger (who plays with KHL-star, Patrick Thoresen, and Mathis Olimb, who ply) into your lineup. While the Norwegian team may not make it past the first game in the playoff bracket, they showed in Vancouver that the constantly-changing roster of players has enough skill to at least put up a battle in the Olympics. You have to figure that much of Norway’s offense will flow through Zuccarello and Thoresen (another value play himself at just $25,000), who will both log heavy minutes.
Boggslite – Rick Nash – Canada – Nash enters this year’s Olympic tournament at a discounted $86,000 price and will be skating alongside Jonathan Toews and Patrick Sharp on Team Canada’s second line. He is widely regarded as one of the best all around playmakers in open space, and I think the Olympic size rink suits his game perfectly. I expect Nash to play with a chip on his shoulder and flash some of his vintage playmaking abilities, proving many his many doubters (90% of Canada) wrong.
JMBWngFn – Gabriel Landeskog – Sweden – It looks like he’ll skate alongside both Alex Steen and Henrik Zetterberg on Sweden’s top forward line. Landeskog has been an assistant captain for Sweden in previous World Championships and was a key member of the 2013 Gold medal team. With a price-tag under 100K (97K to be exact), he’s well worth consideration.
BillsFan777 – Alex Radulov – Russia – At only $86,000, playing with Ilya Kovalchuk and Pavel Datstyuk. Radulov was not a remarkable talent in the NHL, but with more ice, and these two fantastic linemates, Radulov is a tremendous play
Elctrceye – Aleksander Barkov – Finland – Barkov’s team is in the same group as Canada, playing Norway and Austria in the preliminary round. If they are able to get the 5th seed after that preliminary round, they will draw the 12th seed in the playoff round, which means plenty of goals will be scored. With Mikko Koivu and Valtteri Filpulla out, Barkov will get his chance to shine in on the world stage.
Bargain Bin Plays
Each of our NHL experts will provide a brief discussion of a our top “bargain bin” plays:
TheTonyM – Roman Josi – Switzerland – The Nashville Predator is just $40,000 and will log heavy minutes as the top defenseman on Team Switzerland, who will likely finish 3rd in Group C and may win one game in the playoff bracket. The squad does have other NHL D-mean (Mark Streit, Yannick Weber and Rafael Diaz), but Josi has really picked up his play since the start of 2014 (as indicated by his drastic uptick in price across the industry on all DFS sites) having scored more than half of his goals and assists since the calendar turned.
Boggslite – Patrick Thoresen – Norway – If you’re looking for a guy with plenty of international and some NHL experience at a rock bottom price, look no further than Thoresen, who in 63 career international games has 24 goals and 45 assists. He will share the ice with the talented young NY Ranger Mats Zuccarello on Norway’s only real scoring line and should be involved in much (if not all) of Norway’s scoring in this tournament.
JMBWngFn – Patrick Thoresen – Norway – Granted, he’s highly unlikely to survive past the round-robin round, but at the minimum salary (25K) he won’t need much to exceed value. Thoresen has been a point-per-game producer in the KHL over the last three years and posted five assists in four games during the 2010 Olympic Games in Vancouver.
BillsFan777 – Thomas Hundertpfunt – Austria – I have not heard of him either, but he is playing on Austria’s top line with NHLers Vanek and Grabner, and that top line will be doing all of the scoring for Austria. While I don’t think they will go far, if you use Hundertpfunt, it opens up the door for all the top studs.
Elctrceye – Roman Wick – Switzerland – Wick had 5 points in 5 games in Vancouver and the possibility of playing Latvia twice is good enough for me.
Buyer Beware
Each of our NHL experts will provide one player in which they will be avoiding:
TheTonyM – Ilya Kovalchuk – Russia – Kovalchuk retired from the NHL to play in the KHL where he has not exactly been playing great hockey. With a price tag of $119,000, I would rather spend money elsewhere. Sure, he will play with Alexander Radulov and Aleksandr Svitov, but he will get lost on the ice and likely will not log enough ice time to justify his immense salary, especially considering that you can roster John Tavares, Marian Hossa, Nicklas Backstrom, Patrick Sharp and Chris Kunitz for similar (or lower price tags).
Boggslite – P.K. Subban – Canada – One of the most dangerous scoring threats on the power play that sees heavy ice time for his NHL team is P.K. Subban. Unfortunately for the exciting and talented young defensemen, this year’s tournament won’t yield very many power play opportunities or need for him to play extended minutes with the Canadian roster loaded with much better lock-down defensemen and scoring talent at the forward postition. P.K.’s invitation to the team was purely political, as the Canadian Selection Committee did not want to deal with the media backlash had they not chosen him and Mike Babcock knows that Subban’s propensity to turn the puck over and take stupid penalties does not fit into his gameplan. Expect Subban to see limited action in this year’s tournament.
JMBWngFn – Patrice Bergeron – Canada – Now don’t get me wrong, I’d absolutely want this guy on my team if I had the choice. However, despite his offensive talents, Bergeron made this team due to his great two-way game. With all that fire-power up front on this Canada team, Mike Babcock will likely use Bergeron predominantly in a more defensive and penalty killing role.
Elctrceye – Daniel Sedin – Sweden – Daniel has looked lost without his twin brother Henrik on the ice with him.. While Sweden will win games, it will be their goaltending that wins the games, not their offense, as Daniel will be paired with two other struggling NHL forwards in Loui Eriksson and Nicklas Backstrom.
Medal Predictions
Each of our NHL experts will provide a brief discussion of who they believe will win each medal:
TheTonyM – Gold: Canada; Silver: Russia; Bronze: USA
Canada will repeat and take home Olympic gold once again after winning the tournament in 2010 in Vancouver. The analysis here is simple: Canada has the most talent from top to bottom and during early practices, the team has appeared to gel together the best. While most of the players are on different NHL squads, they are all so familiar with each other that watching them play together should appear as though they have known each other their whole lives. It doesn’t hurt that Chris Kunitz and Sidney Crosby (part of the Canadian top line) play together every game in Pittsburgh or that Patrick Sharp and Jonathan Toews also play together every day in Chicago.
Russia will “end up with” the silver medal and will be the victim of a Canadian beating. Russia should coast to the gold medal game with its only truly, challenging game being in round play when it faces off against the U.S. Heads will surely roll when the home country does not take home the gold in a sport that it had previously dominated for decades, but when it runs into a stacked Team Canada, having one brilliant line (Alexander Ovechkin, Evgeni Malkin and Alexander Semin) will not suffice all-around talent.
In 2010, the United States lost gold to Canada and I expect them to get knocked out in the semi-final in 2014, but should take home the bronze medal over Sweden in Sochi. While Canada will win with its absolutely outstanding, all-around talent, the U.S. will use its size and physicality, combined with its firepower to outplay Sweden in a close game. Only Sweden’s top line of Gabriel Landeskog, Henrik Zetterberg and Alexander Steen will be able to use size to its advantage, but all four U.S. lines should be able to shut down Sweden’s top line. Sweden typically plays a more finesse brand of hockey that the U.S. players should be able to not only keep up with but outlast the Swedes. The difference in the game will be that the both the U.S.‘s forwards and defense pairs are well-balanced and should be able to out-muscle and out score its opponent (whether it’s Sweden or another country). Some combination of Jonathan Quick, Jimmy Howard and Ryan Miller between the pipes will not hurt either. Look for coach Dan Bylsma to roll with the hottest goalie as the tournament progresses.
Boggslite – Gold: USA; Silver: Canada; Bronze: Sweden
I expect Sweden to easily cruise into the #1 seed, but the lack of competition they will face will make them the most beatable team entering the semi-final round. I expect USA’s offensive balance and strong goaltending to help them earn the #4 seed, which will put them in a perfect opportunity to upset the heavily favored Swedish team to earn a rematch against Canada in the gold medal game. Nobody gave this team a chance in 2010, and Parise, Kaner, Kessel, and co. will look to avenge their heartbreaking loss in one of the most memorable games since the “Miracle on Ice.” After Russia is defeated by Canada in their semi-final game, the Russians will lose motivation heading into the bronze medal game and get routed by a much more disciplined and proud Sweden team.
JMBWngFn – Gold: Canada; Silver: Sweden; Bronze: USA
Look at that Canadian roster and honestly tell me you don’t think they’re going to win again. Sweden is sneaky good and always seem to play safe and fundamentally sound hockey. With Lundqvist in net, an entire roster of NHL players, and the international rinks, I fully expect them to be playing at a level similar to their 2006 squad that won gold in Italy. USA is improving rapidly in international competition over the last decade, but their more physical style of play is better suited for the smaller NHL sized rinks.
BillsFan777 – Gold: Canada; Silver: Russia; Bronze: USA
I’m Canadian, so it’s gold or go home for this year’s team. The Russians are at home and under lots of pressure, and their top 6 will carry them far. USA is a great team top to bottom and I’m picking them to beat Sweden in the Bronze medal game.
Elctrceye – Gold: Russia; Silver: Canada; Bronze: Sweden
I think although Canada has a semi-cakewalk, they lose to the better goaltending the Russians have in the final.
With that, head over to FantasyFeud now and grab some daily fantasy hockey games, Olympic-style before they fill up!
Good luck!
Tony, Paul, John, Warren, and Tom